All Things Racing From The UK To The USA

All Thoughts Are My Own.

If anything, we have too many things to talk about this week to the extent that I have had to cull a few subjects and focus on four topics which should keep us all busy enough. For those who like a laugh (no, we are not wearing Halloween masks, we are just getting old) you can listen to us via YouTube here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phFq6Vuj_ps

First up, we have the sale of White Birch for 300,000 Guineas, bought by Jamie Osborne who is now on the hunt for an owner with deep enough pockets. The five-year-old has some very solid form in the book with his latest win at The Curragh in the Group One Tattersalls Gold Cup in May 2024, and if he can be brought back to anything near that level, his owners could yet win more than he cost. Although at first glance it is a hefty price tag, as Jamie said you can spend that or more on an unraced yearling who may (or more likely may not) go on to win top races – or invest it in a horse who has proven ability. Likely to be gelded to bring out the best of him, I suspect Jamie already has a “cunning plan” that will involve plenty of travel with the likes of the Hong Kong and Dubai very much on their agenda. There are plenty of races elsewhere that welcome or even encourage geldings, and with better prize money than here, if he can pick off just one of them (The Hong Kong Vase has total prize money of £2.49 Million for example), then his price tag may yet prove to be a bargain.

On to the “Killoran report” next, and what it means to you and me. It is a long, detailed, and complex report covering the current state of British racing, but it was the last paragraph that perhaps applies to the likes of you and me the most. “What is needed is a strategy that puts punters and owners back at the centre – the sport’s most important stakeholders, yet too often the most marginalised. Get that right, and every other stakeholder will benefit”.

Now forgive me for blowing my own (and others) trumpet, but the Horseracing Bettors Forum have been telling racing this for years, not necessarily to deaf ears but with little to show for it – yet. Punters and owners are the financial backbone of the industry – no owners means no horses, no punters means no levy (or media rights), and the sport falls down like a house of cards. Meanwhile, in my opinion, bookmakers have been allowed to ride rough-shod over their patrons (the only business where it feels like the customer is always wrong), and surely this has to change. Same old stuck record for me here, closed accounts, restrictions, poor odds, no bonuses – can you imagine supermarkets treating their income stream anywhere near as badly? In my dreams I see a future where bookmakers HAVE to take a sensible bet, where accounts cannot be closed for loopholes (criminality is a different matter), and where the added income back to the sport sees it thrive via better prize money which in turn means better horses, and more competitive racing for us all to take an interest in, financially or otherwise.

Meanwhile, other jurisdictions are having their tuppence worth about the state we are in with New South Wales Chief Executive Peter V’landys having his say. He is talking from a business that gets back a percentage of the tax paid to fund the sport, and one with a strong Tote as well, so he could be seen to be comparing Apples and Pears, but his view on reducing the fixture list is a sound one at present. That is what Australia did when needed, and they are, for the moment on a sound financial footing, and his support for Lord Allen, the new BHA Chair is welcomed by me. However, much as I agree with the regulatory body having more teeth, if only life was that easy. Firstly, we have a government scrapping around to get more money from anyone they can, so the idea of them giving some back to racing seems off the table for the foreseeable future, and secondly, we have a fractured industry. The BHA do not own all the fixtures by any stretch of my fertile imagination and getting the likes of ARC to cut any meetings wll no doubt be met by legal action, and for now, this sounds more like a soundbite than a solution to our ills. What I would say (again) is that there is a sound argument for us to talk to other jurisdictions to see what we can cherry-pick for racing’s economy. We don’t have a Tote monopoly so we can’t simply follow the Hong Kong model, for example, but we can both look, and be seen to look, at what they do better than us to see if we can bring some of it back home to get racing on to a sounder footing.

Lastly for this week, we have the Breeders’ Cup from Del Mar this weekend, but with some high class racing here as well I am focussing my attentions elsewhere. For that reason alone (well, and the fact that Franke Dettori rides in the USA for the last time on Saturday), I have come up with two horses worth a second look, possibly for two singles and a double.  It is a huge meeting on the international scene with way above average prize money, and it has attracted plenty of high-class European contenders, but just like Ascot the other week it’s end of season stuff and who knows which horse is here as an afterthought – or has been targeted here for some time? Unsurprisingly Aidan O’Brien has sent over an army of hopefuls with Brussels of each way interest in the Friday sprint on the assumption that Christophe Soumillon had the pick of his trio in that race, but I have got a bloody nose before by assuming the Europeans are best and I won’t fall for that one again making me a lot more selective. Starting with Friday, and Precise looks the best bet of the meeting to me ahead of the John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Tuf at 11.05pm our time after an easy and impressive win in the Group One Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket earlier in the month. She took that by over three lengths and is now as short as 4/1 for the 1000 Guineas next year, and although I have learned to take the Ballydoyle media hype with a pinch of salt, they do think she is pretty special.

Minnie Haulk would be the obvious second pick, but good as she is she had a tough race when second in the Arc and it may be sensible to side with Sierra Leone in the big race of the day, the Classic at 10.25pm. With Sovereignty out with a temperature, last year’s winner is back for more as a four-year-old with a pacemaker seemingly employed to aid his chances, and he ran a remarkable race when second last time out after being badly hampered early on and 18 lengths adrift, finishing strongly to be beaten less than two lengths. The moral victor that day in my eyes, if he gets a clear run this season he looks the likeliest winner, and the current 3/1 seems pretty generous on a difficult card as always.  

Breeders’ Cup:

Win each, win double:

Precise 11.05pm Del Mar Friday and Sierra Leone 10.25pm Saturday

Saturday racing

Newmarket 1.07pm

With William Buick in America for the Breeders’ Cup, Dougie Costello steps in on board Morning Rose for the Listed Montrose Stakes over a mile and although this looks a tough heat to solve, her current odds make her sorely tempting each way. She has only had the one race which she won by two lengths at Newcastle, and therefore is yet to be seriously tested, but I liked the way she quickened up when asked to go and win her race that day, and as a daughter of Dubawi she ought to be even better suited by the turf. She is up against the highly regarded Sacred Ground who has a similar profile and looks her biggest danger, but at the current odds my choice is undoubtedly the value call.

Wetherby 2.22pm

Our first National Hunt race of the day, and sadly just the five runners, but with an Irish challenger from the Willie Mullins yard it needs discussing at the very least. His Winter Fog is undoubtedly the best value here sitting fourth of the five in the early market, yet officially only 1lb short of the jolly at these weights. Strong Leader is the obvious choice having finished second in the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree on his latest start following a fourth to Gowel Road in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January, and he has won on his return to action before, but Mr Mullins is a wily fox and will be hoping that his charge’s fitness advantage will be more than enough to see him get the better of the favourite.  

Ascot 2.05pm

I can never resist a little bit of profiling when the right races come up and this two mile one furlong handicap looks as good as any. Thirteen runners at the time of writing (unlucky for some I suppose), and with the last 15 years seeing no winners bigger than 16/1, 14 aged 6-9, 14 rated between 135 and 160, and all of them finishing in the first nine (if they finished) on their latest start I have soon got it down to five which is a positive start! Martator won it last year off just 1lb lower in the handicap and with Ned Fox claiming 5lb off his back he has to be one to take seriously, but surely Special Cadeau is the value call? Second to an odds-on Mullins shot last time out at Roscommon in September, he travels over from Ireland for Henry De Bromhead and has a race fitness advantage over all of those currently ahead of him in the betting. Trip and track should hold no issues for the seven-year-old who is only having his sixth race over fences, winning one so far and placing twice, and with the Irish jumpers generally better than ours (sad, but true), the 11/1 on offer at the moment is a tempting each way price.

Ascot 3.10pm

No need to go through all the nitty-gritty again here but suffice to say I have started via past statistics and gone on from there to try and find the winner of this competitive handicap hurdle. The usual calculations have got the original field of 12 down to a more manageable (can you believe it) ONE. To explain (briefly), 14 of the last 15 winners were officially rated 130-149 which loses nine of them, 14 finished in the first nine last time out (loses another), and none of the 15 had raced in the last 15 days (loses one more), all of which points the way to Washington. Harry Derham’s Westerner gelding won his first two starts last season after arriving from the Paul Nicholls yard before going off the boil and is looking to do the same after returning with victory at Chepstow off a 4lb lower mark. If he strips fitter now then he may well be able to shrug off the weight rise, allowing the nine-year-old to add to his seven career victories under rules.

Newmarket 3.25pm

Bolster won this last year as a four-year-old for trainer Karl Burke making him hard to ignore, but he hasn’t won in five starts since and on faster ground this season, a place may be the best he can hope for. Gethin seems less ground dependent having won on heavy and good ground before a head second at Saint-Cloud on very soft and he may have improvement to come after only three starts, but on official ratings he is no better than Andrew Balding’s Royal Playwright who is freely available at three times the price. The winner of a Class Two Conditions Stakes at Goodwood last time out, he will not be out of place in this Listed event having finished third at Windsor in the Group Three Winter Hill Stakes in August, and although no good thing today, he looks a sensible each way option.

Sean’s suggestion:

Precise 11.05pm Del Mar Friday