Once More Into The Breach That Is Cheltenham, Including a 50/1 chance!

Cheltenham Friday

Gold Cup day and the end of four days of hell and fun for punters and racing professionals alike. The Triumph Hurdle starts the final day and it looks as tricky as ever (after all, we had a 100/1 winner last year), and with Willie Mullins muddying the waters with 11 of the early declarations, we are going to need luck as well as form study on our side. I can see why the unbeaten Proactif heads the markets in the J P McManus colours, but 3/1 looks skinny enough to me and I don’t think he is bulletproof. Highland Crystal is also unbeaten for Gordon Elliott, and her form got a major boost when Saratoga, who she gave 7lb and a three-quarter length beating at Naas, won the Fred Winter on Tuesday. 16/1 looks a bit of value to me, and as she gets 7lb as a filly here, I will be backing her each way to small stakes. 

Highland Crystal Each Way 1.20pm Cheltenham 

Doctor Steinberg could provide Willie Mullins with yet another winner in the Albert Bartlett, and although he heads the market, he is difficult to oppose. With an unblemished three out of three record over hurdles, by decent margins, if he stays the three miles today he ought to come home in front. Already a Grade One winner at Leopardstown this will be his biggest ask yet, but he looks to be improving with experience and could be a potential superstar in the long term over hurdles or even fences. 

Doctor Steinberg 3.20pm Cheltenham

Good ground in the Gold Cup may prove a problem for some this afternoon, but not The Jukebox Man who could give trainer Ben Pauling his biggest winner ever. Unbeaten over fences, and the source of media hype being owned by Harry Redknapp, he was last seen taking the King George at Kempton in December, and if the going had been soft I would have been wary of his stamina. As things stand that is not the case, and if he can get into a good rhythm bright and early he could have too much speed in what has traditionally been a stamina test when the going has been on the soft side.  

The Jukebox Man 4.00pm Cheltenham

The Rest of the Cheltenham Card in brief.

You will see my three best bets elsewhere, but as it is the one and only Cheltenham Festival, every race deserves at least a passing mention! 

2.00pm – The County Hurdle was never going to be an easy one to try and solve but I have crunched the numbers and if they hold true then the winner is quite likely to be the Dan Skelton trained Sinnatra. He ticks all the boxes of past winners regarding price, ratings etc etc, and equally importantly, the stable have won this four times and placed with two others, with Dan Skelton riding the winner on two occasions – job done (hopefully). He arrives in good form after an easy win at Warwick and heads here for his handicap debut.  

Sinnatra each way

2.40pm – I see this as a straight fight between favourite Dinoblue for Willie Mullins and Panic attack for Dan Skelto and it looks all set to be a close run thing between that pairing, who also head the early markets. Interestingly, if either succeed they will become the oldest winner yet of this relatively new contest so I would not be be going overboard with my bets, but decisions have to be made and my vote goes to the nine-year-old, who won this last year and has 9lb in hand of Panic Attack at these weights according to the official ratings.

Dinoblue

4.40pm – It is hard for me to express in words just how much time and effort I have had to put into this race, which still leaves me confused and scratching my head, so I will go for “too many”. Hunter Chases are better than they used to be but the form is less frequent under rules, and I am no point-to-point expert, so do treat whatever I come up with as speculative and nothing more. The stats from past years only got me down to a shortlist of 18 which is no help at all, so I feel forced to go with previous trainer form in this particular race. Paul Nicholls has won this twice in the last 20 years from 22 runners (and placed with one other) so both Golden Son and Shearer deserve a second look, but Enda Bolger has won it twice and placed with two others – from only 10 attempts. He runs 50/1 chance Solitary Man who sports a first-time visor despite winning a point-to-point at Nenagh last month, and if he hits a place I’ll be a happy man – though to pennies in this race – with Statler my second choice at a more sensible 12/1!

Solitary Man Each way 

5.20pm – And so it all comes to an end for another year with the Martin Pipe to round things off, a two and a half miles plus handicap hurdle restricted to conditional jockeys. Open Secret is the one that catches my eye here for Gordon Elliott as one of the youngest in the field at the age of five, and hopefully with plenty of improvement to come. Five starts have so far seen a maiden win at Naas but he was a solid fourth in the Grade Two Classic Novices’ Hurdle here at Cheltenham over this trip in January, and followed that with an unlucky second in a Grade Three at Thurles last month when he went under by half a length after his rider dropped his whip. A mark of 133 for his handicap debut certainly looks workable to me, and at 20/1 each way seems the sensible way to play the son of Cracksman who is bred to appreciate the drying ground more than most.

Open Secret each way

No article Saturday this week as I am going to lay  down in a dark room to get over Cheltenham!