Axe The Tax, Irish Champion Stakes, and Racing's Dirty Washing Aired

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

Guess who is taking a well deserved mini-break this week? OK, so the well-deserved bit may be an exaggeration, but I am writing this in a mad rush before heading off to the airport and there are only the three subjects I have time for this week on the “chit-chat” section.

Firstly, my best wishes go out to jockeys Jim Crowley, Trevor Whelan, and David Nonan who all suffered bad leg injuries this week. It does serve as a stark reminder of just how the jockeys put themselves on the line for our entertainment day in and day out and the risks involved and makes me look at premier league footballers rolling around in agony after someone pulled their shirt into a new perspective!

Secondly, bad news with the Hillsin enquiry, and for those on another planet we are talking about a horse allegedly held back from winning by a combination of instructions and threats. I have seen the race many times (haven’t we all), and it certainly doesn’t look good, but as I write no conclusions have been reached other than jockey Dylan Kittsw admitting he stopped the horse which is how it looked when I views it from the first time onwards. I have no opinions on who instructed him to lose, if anyone,  and that will presumably come out in time, but I can say whoever is responsible needs making an example of as the integrity of the sport is paramount, it’s difficult enough finding winners as it is without those who could or should win being given anything but the best ride possible.

Finally, I travelled up to London on Wednesday afternoon for the Axe The Tax meeting, not knowing what to expect, and wondering whether I would stand out like a sore thumb amongst the great and the good, wandering around talking to myself in a room full of MPs and racing’s rulers. I went with positive thoughts about spreading the word that punters would take a good percentage of any pain inflicted on bookmakers by tax harmonisation (a fancy world for tax rises on the sport we love), be that on racing directly or slots and casinos, with the last two named seen as the lesser of the evils for us at least – for now.

To be fair, my time alone was surprisingly minimal, and although I have been in this game for decades, I was still a little starstruck, standing in the pub beforehand chatting to Ian Williams, Roger Varian, Paul Nicholls, Kim Bailey, George Boughey, and others, who all (patiently) listened to my views, before we went to the actual event. We heard from John Gosden (the centre of media attention) as well as Brant Dunshea (CEO BHA), Martin Cruddace (ARC) Jim Mullen (Jockey Club) and Lord Allen (Chair BHA) and watched a tear jerker of a video (https://www.facebook.com/100064467262817/videos/1510555413600082) that reminded us all what racing is really about – and the jobs at risk. I can’t say whether it will or will not sway the government, but it was very well executed both inside and outside the building as the fight continues to save the sport we love from potential disaster, and sadly no, that is not in the slightest an exaggeration, I wish it was.     

If you haven’t written to your MP yet regarding the tax harmonisation debacle, follow this link for further information – we are all in this together https://emailyourmpnow.co.uk

On to the racing…..

Saturday

Doncaster 2.25pm

I know some of you love these handicaps for a weekend punt and once again I will go back to the statistics to see if we can find the winner – sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t, but we have had some big-priced successes along the way.

Looking at the last 15 runnings and the things I noted (keeping it brief) were: no winners bigger than 25/1 and 14 of the 15 were priced at 20/1 or shorter. Only one winner from stalls 1-4 (and only three from stalls 1-10), 14 finished in the first 10 last time out, 14 were aged six or younger (13 aged five or younger), 14 came from the first 12 in the betting at the off (I have to use early prices, obviously), 14 were rated 92 or higher, and only one was rated above 106, and all had last raced within 60 days. Using the non-bracketed figures first I got it down to two, and we are left with a coin toss between Jakajaro and Addison Grey. Neither trainer has won this before (though Robert Cowell has had a place) and neither jockey has won it either, (P J McDonald has placed twice), so it’s all down to the horses themselves. Neither have won at the course and neither have won over this distance of five and a half furlongs, and amusingly they both wear first time headgear (blinkers and cheekpieces respectively). After much thought, the vote goes to the younger Air Force One, simply because he may have more to offer after just coming home an unlucky second last time out on only his tenth start.   

Leopardstown 3.20pm

It will come as no great shock when I tell you Aidan O’Brien has trained five of the last 10 winners of this race, ands as he has two of the five runners this year (with his sons training the other three!) he has every chance of adding to that. Benvenuto Cellini may be their number one pick after going under to Dorset on his debut at The Curragh on Irish Derby day and then making all to win with ease at Killarney, but I don’t think he has actually achieved any more than stable companion Montreal , who currently sits shorter than him in the betting for next season’s 2000 Guineas. A son of Sea The Start, he made all the running to won by over eight length to take his maiden, and it will be interesting to see the race tactics live as his stablemate also made all to win last time out, though in a much slower time.

Doncaster 3.40pm

Once again that man Aidan O’Brien has a strong hand here, and  we have a real rarity in seeing Lambourn, the English and Irish Derby winner, not even heading the betting. He did look tired when fifth in the Great Voltigeur at York, and it will take some training performance to bring him back to his best here. Stable companion Scandinavia ground out a win over two miles at Goodwood last time out and has no stamina issues, but he is more than a plodder having powered clear over a mile and five at Newmarket in July, and he may be the likelier winner. A son of Justify, every win is a bonus for his stallion career, and although I do not see him as any kind of a good thing, he may outbattle his stablemate late on over this trip.

Leopardstown 5.30pm

The much awaited rematch between Delacroix and Ombudsman has sadly failed to materialise here, and this really looks a one horse race assuming Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old runs to form. His age group have won the last four runnings, while his trainer has taken four of the last five so the omens are good for the son of Dubawi who is officially rated 126, has five wins form his 10 starts, with the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown the highlight, and he has soft ground form as well after going under hy a neck to Hotazhell at Doncaster as a two-year-old. His trainer has been bigging him up as a future sire of note and will have him tuned to the minute to make sure he is at his peak this afternoon, and short price as he is, he is very difficult to oppose.

Sean’s Suggestion

Air Force One Each Way .225pm Doncaster