Breeders' Cup, Jockey Folly, and More

All Thoughts Are My Own.

Hi everyone and thank you for reading – or watching (and probably laughing at) the YouTube Podcast available here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRjStASM0Cs&feature=youtu.be

Firstly, we need a fairly brief “wash-up” of the Breeder’s Cup meeting where the one and only Aidan O’Brien broke the record for most winners over the years, though let’s face it, we were only talking a matter of time. He is a genius, no doubt about that, but he also gets some (or possibly most) of the best bred horses on the planet which gives him a decent leg up, though I am not trying to take anything away from his achievements which are second to none. Sadly my selection last week didn’t run, or I am confident she would have been the record breaker, but we didn’t have to wait too long though we saw a hat full of European challengers put in their place on the opening day with the only exception the Donnacha O’Brien trained Balantina who took the Juvenile Filles Turf by a length and a quarter at odds of 20/1 or so, to the absolute delight of his father who looked made up as the horses crossed the line. Gstaad was the to change the record books in the last race on Friday night when he took the Juvenile Turf under Christophe Soumillon, giving the O’Brien family the male and female divisions.  On to the Saturday, and we (the Europeans) struggled again for the first six races until another Irish icon stepped on to the stage. Many though Willie Mullins was mad to send Ebor handicap winner Ethical Diamond all the way to Del Mar for the Breeders’ Cup Turf where on official ratings he had 18lb to find with Rebel’s Romance and 26lb with favourite Mini Hawk, but rules are there to be broken in Willie’s eyes and the five-year-old only needed to be driven out to win by a length and a quarter after racing in the rear until brought with a perfect run. Those who backed him were rewarded at 28/1 with the Charlie Appleby pair of Rebel’s Romance and El Cordobes filling the places. The Classic on dirt came next and I got it wrong once more with Sierra Leone too far back to win before running on strongly to finish second to Japanese star Forever Young. Somehow, I missed out having followed this horse until today, losing out as the 7/2 shot held on by half a length under jockey Ryusei Sakao for trainer Yoshito Yahagi who is a real character, making this the result of the day for me despite an annoying lack of personal financial interest. To end with we had one last race on the turf, and Notable Speech showed an electric turn of foot to land the odds for William Buick and Charlie Appleby in the Godolphin blue. He was, for me, the most impressive winner on the day, while The Lion In Winter ran well in third and could be one to follow if he is kept in training next season. 

From the Flat to the jumps and I have spent a long time reading through the Paul Nicholls stable tour as the 14 time Champion trainer looks to get back to the top of the tree having been usurped by Wille Mullins for the last two years, and by his protégé Dan Skelton. Knowing Paul I doubt he will be overly bothered by the title itself, and you can’t have champion horses in your yard every season, but he remains as competitive as ever and will do his best for his owners as always. Whether he can win back his title is open to question – his current odds are 14/1 with Dan Skelton an 8/11 shot and Willie Mullins 13/8 which may say it all, though I can add one thing – give Paul the horses and he will give you winners, I promise you that, and anyone writing him off as a’ has been” does so at their peril.

From trainers to jockeys and whether we like it or not, the whip rules are here to stay, and I suspect will only get stricter as the years roll on. Both Oisin Murphy and Sean Levey fell foul of them with suspensions of 15 days (five deferred) and 26 days (eight deferred) respectively, but I got the feeling Oisin is skating on thin ice. The conclusion on is verdict included the comment “he must realise that “miscounting” the number of occasions on which he used his whip is a very hollow and unattractive explanation, and may well not be accepted in relation to any further excessive use of the whip”. Meanwhile, Sean was given an even harsher penalty and an equally “loud” warning that included “As a very experienced and skilful jockey, he must realise that there will come a time when a Judicial Panel may well be driven to conclude that he either cannot or will not control his use of the whip in accordance with the Rules and that only a long suspension, to be served in its entirety, can serve as an adequate punishment. He would be well advised to heed this warning”. It will certainly be interesting as a punter to see whether or not either jockey changes the way they ride, and if that in turn reduces the number of winners they are responsible for over the months or even years ahead?

Lastly, and it may be seen by some as good news, various media outlets including the Telegraph are reporting (or second guessing) that racing will avoid any rises in betting taxes at the next budget. That must be seen as good news in the short term with racing avoiding a direct punch in the solar plexus (if it is correct, of course), with the lesser of two evils the likely outcome. As mentioned here and elsewhere many times, we all know that the bookmakers will pass down any costs to their customers to keep their profits at the same level, and that may well mean worse prices, reduced offers, and a cut in race sponsorship, while the threatened High Street bookmaker closures will also give racing a hit via media rights. I am left scratching my head that while the PC brigade is all over gambling harm, and perhaps correctly so, worse odds and account closures will drive more people to the Black Market, and push those currently breaking even into the red is the odds are cut via an increased overpriced to protect their profits – go figure?

On to the racing….

Saturday racing

Doncaster 1.25pm

The Wentworth Stakes is a Listed race over six furlongs, and I am all over favourite Montassib like a nasty rash. One look at his form, and it leaps off the page that he has won here over course and distance, won eight races in total, with three of those on the soft ground we are expecting this afternoon, this is Listed class and he has won at Group One and Group Three level so we aren’t asking him to shoot for the moon,  while the Willam Haggas team are finishing the season well with 13 winners in the last two weeks for a 29% strike rate. He is best in on official ratings at these weights, and has James Doyle in the saddle (one of my favourite jockeys), and with only two runs this season he ought to be fresher than most.

Wincanton 2.23pm

Our first National Hunt race of the day is a two and a half mile novice chase, won last season by Boombawn for Dan Skelton, and they run outsider Settle Down Jill here, a 50/1 chance as I write and seemingly outgunned (famous last words). Blueking D’Oroux has 7lb or more in hand of all of his rivals at these weights if the ratings are as accurate as they should be, and although this will be his second start over fences, he was reported to have schooled well at Ditcheat before finishing second at Newton Abbot. He does look the one to beat but he needs to brush up his jumping and I will take a risk on the more experienced Cobra Queen at these prices. Henry De Bromhead sends the six-year-old mare over from Ireland looking for her hat-trick after workmanlike wins at Tramore and Roscommon, but I get the feeling she has more to offer and just tries to keep a little back for herself if she can. Getting 7lb from the jolly may make all the difference, especially if they run this at a decent pace that may get the Nicholls beat out of his comfort zone.  

Wincanton 2.55pm

The Elite Hurdle over a mile and seven furlongs is next on our list, and a frankly disappointing field of four but what can you so? No prizes for guessing that I will be siding with Rubaud who has won this for the last two years, but there is more to it than that. He was won twice from three starts at the track, has scored seven times over the distance, and seven times on the going, ticking all the boxes, and he proved his wellbeing with a win at  Kempton last month. He is a prohibitive price and I won’t be backing him at those odds (horses can fall as we all know), but I can see no sensible reason to oppose him either.   

Doncaster 3.10pm

Our second Listed race on the Doncaster card, restricted to fillies and won last season by the Extrange trained by David O’Meara, with the same trainer represented by two this year in the shape of Aequitas and Brielle, though they are both big prices and they need to improve to have any say in the final result. Ralph Beckett has won this twice in the last 10 runnings and he has each way chances with Perfect Your Craft, the winner of a Class Two handicap at Newmarket over further last month, and lightly raced with just the five starts winning three of them. Crucially, she won first time out on heavy ground so any further rain will not inconvenience her, and as she has the stamina for further, she won’t be too bothered as others start to back peddle late on. Danielle heads the market for the Gosdens after her fifth at Ascot in the Champion Filles and Mares on Champions’ day and takes a big drop in class, but she has been racing over a mile and a half and further recently, suggesting she is more stamina than speed and she might be found out over this reduced trip, and I am as happy as I can be with my suggestion as an each way alternative.  

Doncaster 3.45pm (obligatory handicap)

Once more we revert to profiling despite a few poor results (no hiding from me, not my style) but we have popped up with some big priced winners in the past and even the odd forecast, so fingers crossed. The November handicap over a mile and a half is the final big betting race of the Flat season and I note that in the last 14 runnings: No winner priced bigger than 20/1 at the off, and 13 winners priced at 14/1 or shorter (I have to use early odds, so be warned on that one), all finished in the first nine last time out with 13 in the first eight, all aged seven or younger with 13 aged six or below, all officially rated lower than 108, all rated 87 or higher – and 13 rated 89 or above. All came from the first 11 in the betting with 13 from the first eight, and 13 had raced at least twice this season, while two winners arrived here after last competing in the mile and a quarter handicap at Newbury last month – and both won! Interestingly, Atherstone Warrior ticks all the above boxes having won the Newbury race concerned and runs here, and although he has an extra 9lb for that, I get the feeling the Moore’s have had this in mind for some time. His last win saw him staying on strongly over the mile and a quarter, looking as if the step up in trip may be just what he needs, and with Ashley Lewsi booked to claim 5lb off his back, an each way bets looks the sensible option. My only concern (other than 22 opponents!)  is we haven’t seen a horse win this from the three stall in the last 15 years (or any stall lower than eighth for that matter), and if that bothers you, then the Ralph Beckett pair of Lord Melbourne and Master Binter could be considered, while I will be watching the market like a hawk for any confidence in the Moores’ other runner Miller Spirit with Toby Moore, Gary’s grandson and the son of Ryan Moore, in the saddle.  

Sean’s suggestion:

Montassib 1.25pm Doncaster