Haydock, Ascot, and Plenty Of "Chat"

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN.

First up this week was the news from Ireland that Tipperary have been given permission for an all-weather track that will be built sometime soon with no official date for opening that I can see. It will become the second such track in Ireland (Dundalk being the other one), and has seem a mixed reaction from the industry with some delighted, and others claiming the horse population isn’t big enough, but only time will tell on that one, and I suspect that if the prize money is good enough, they will be there in numbers.  I am old enough to remember when we in the UK opened out first all-weather track when it was seen as the poor relation to the turf, and although that attitude still remains (mainly thanks to low quality racing), it has got better year on year with many of the top stables introducing their purple bred newcomers at the likes of Southwell or Newcastle. With all the issues with inaccurate or late going reports and hosts of non-runners on the grass, at least owners and trainers have a far better idea of what their horses will be up against, and I wonder if it is in fact the future of our sport, albeit long after I am dead and buried.  Unsurprisingly, it will need better racing and bigger prize money before it attracts the top-class beasts, but Kempton managed to switch their Easter card from grass to turf with surprisingly little fuss, and it will be intriguing to see how the future unfolds.

Back in blighty we had a bit of a mess at Plumpton which was a shame as I am a big fan of the Sussex track. If you haven’t read about it yet, we had an amateur jockeys’ race over to and half miles that saw four of the nine runners pulled up with three of the riders handed seven day bans (which doesn’t add up to a lot with so few amateur races). In a nutshell, they were waved around one hurdle via a black and white chequered flag but many thought the race start had been aborted and pulled up, while others carried on. Winning jockey Adam Ryan told the Racing Post Winning rider Ryan said: "When I saw the chequered flag and heard the whistle, I wasn’t sure what the rules were and I heard somebody shout, ‘Are we a false start or are we off?’ In the heat of the moment, it puts doubts in your mind. "I saw people pulling up and I didn’t know whether to pull up or not, but I saw the big screen and realised we were on." My only concern is that the jockeys racing clearly did not understand the rules (a black and white flag means hazard ahead while a stop flag is orange and yellow), and much as I am no armchair jockey and rarely criticise those who put on our entertainment for us at great risk to themselves, question still need to be ask about whether some jockeys need more or better education before climbing into the saddle.  

Next up is a question that could get me into an awful lot of trouble – there goes my Knighthood – who really tuns horse racing? Of course, the overall answer is and will hopefully remain the BHA, but news broke this week that the Racing League has lost the support of ARC as they look to try something new. Contracts run out, and viewing figures and racecourse income may well mean that the concept (that to be fair I have never been a huge fan of) has run its course, and the announcement of a new Friday night series aimed at racegoers aged 18-25 (ageism anyone) may well hold water as we look to encourage the next generation of fans to our great sport, but I am wary that it feels like a “go it alone” product, though ARC have stressed that the dropping of the Racing League is separate to the new concept. It isn’t aimed at the likes of me (DJ sets between races - I would need ear defenders), but I wish it all the very best if it helps to keep our sport alive – though the silence so far from the BHA still concerns me, and you have to wonder if they were even consulted?   

Harkening back to last week’s piece on the perils of ante-post betting and now we have Lulamba trading as short as 3/1 for next March’s Arkle after an admittedly impressive debut over fences at Exeter this week. He could go on to win with his head in his chest – or he may not even make the final line-up, and one quick look at recent winners soon tells us six of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland, five by Willie Mullins, and I won’t be availing myself of that price with the Irish cards yet to be played.

Lastly, one of our YouTube viewers asked for our opinions on handicap weights and official ratings – akin to how long is a piece of string and we haven’t got all day!  In theory, every horse should dead-heat in a handicap, Flat or National Hunt, with the differing weights equalising each horse’s chance – good job it rarely works out that way!  For those unfamiliar, each horse is given an official rating, either after winning its first race or after three starts (there are exceptions I won’t bore you with), theoretically giving the official handicapper a chance to assess their abilities. They are then given a numerical mark which defines their weight next time in a handicap compared to the top-weigh (so if the top weight is rated 100 and carry 11 stone as an example, and your horse is rated 87, he or she would get 13lb from the highest rated horse, assuming that still fits within the weight ranges allowed. Unsurprisingly, the handicapper can only gauge a horse on what is has actually achieved on a racecourse – they cannot (or should not) take a guess at potential improvement, or whether headgear will help, or a step up (or down) in trip, different going and so on – it is certainly not an exact science, but it does give you a rough idea of a horse’s abilities – and I do like to look at their latest ratings to see if the horse is or isn’t on an upward curve. With every horse (eventually) getting a rating, the interesting races are the non-handicaps where the runners carry level weights (plus or minus age, sex, winner’s allowances etc), and where you would expect the highest rated horse to win the majority of the time. Looking at this afternoons (Thursday) two Listed races at Lingfield for example, Understudy is rated 101 and gets 5lb from the 100 rated Fairy Glen so if the ratings are taken at face value, she should, in theory, win the 1.55pm, while in the 2.30pm the 101 rated Shuwari has to give 3lb to Sky Safari (rated 97) and 5lb to the 95 rated Naina which suggests it should be close (written two days ahead of race times, by the way). As you will now know, Fairy Glen won at odds of 11/4, while Shuwarti came home in ninth, Sky Safari won at 2/1, and Naina was eighth, so I leave you to draw your own conclusions!

On to the racing…..

Saturday racing

Haydock 12.08pm

A strange race to start with and one where Masked Man is the short priced favourite for the Twiston-Davies yard after winning a point-to-point and a novice hurdle, both by 12 lengths. Of course he should win, and I may be off on one to even consider opposing him, but I am going to have the smallest of bets on Jony R at a massive price. I accept he only won a maiden hurdle at Down Roal last time out, but he did it with ease, and I have spotted something else. Before moving to the Twiston-Davies yard the favourite was trained by Stuard Crawford, and he also trains my selection. Why send the horse over from Ireland if it hasn’t got a chance, and better still, does the trainer know something we don’t – after all, he has trained both horses and is still happy enough to travel over the Irish Sea in the hunt for the Haydock prize money?  

Ascot 1.30pm

Two miles and five furlongs over fences await the contenders for the Ladbrokes 1965 Chase, won four times in the last seven years by that man Paul Nichols, with Pic d’Orhy successful in both 2023 and 2024. He is back for more this year in this small (and frankly disappointing) field, but all the talk pre-race has been about French challenger Il Est Francais. The next big think back in 2023 when winning the Kauto Star Chase at Kempton with ease, he has been off the boil since by those lofty standards, but is reported to be jumping like a stag at home and back to his imperious best. If that is true then he can win this doing handstands, but I would be interested to know if his place at the head of the market as I write is down to weight of money – or just the rumours about his wellbeing.

Haydock 1.50pm

Trainer Paul Nicholls has handled six of the last 10 winners of this contest, which is a statistic to be proud of, and he has Knapper’s Hill in here for his first start since winning at Wincanton two years ago. Much as I respect the former Champion trainer it would be some performance to have him 100% tuned up to win this, and the vote goes to The Jukebox Man, though I cannot pretend I am inspired by the price. The winner of both his starts over fences, one each at Newbury and Kempton, he looks to be heading to the very top (famous last words) and as long as he is fit enough to do himself justice, he can win this for trainer Ben Pauling who thinks the world of him.

Ascot 2.05pm

Three and three-quarter miles for the Berkshire National, and a handicap to boot – time to go to work to see what I can find. With only one running so far, when 13/2 chance Beauport taking the prize for Nigel Twiston-Davies, stats are a no go, and I will have to use my tiny brain instead. Rock My Way heads the early betting for the in-form Joe Tizzard, but I am more than happy to take him on with Regarde who sneaks in as an each way option if the 6/1 lasts until race day. Third on his return to action at Cheltenham when he stayed on to be beaten a length and a quarter over three miles and a furlong, and as that was his first start since April he may have improvement to come. Add the fact that it was his first start since wind surgery and I think he can take a step forward here, and hopefully a winning one.

Ascot 2.40pm

I have always enjoyed the Ascot hurdle for reasons unknown but be warned – that doesn’t always mean I find the winner! Harry Fry has won three of the last 10 runnings so he knows the exact sort needed, and he has place chances with Altobelli, but I cannot see him winning with Wodhooh in opposition. Gordon Elliott’s Le Havre mare saw a winning run of seven races over hurdles come to an end on her latest start at Aintree when second to Lossiemouth, but that is nothing to be ashamed of and I doubt any of her rivals here would have got within three lengths. Odds against at the moment, I am happy with that and expect her to return with a winning run.

Haydock 3.00pm

A small but select field for the Betfair Chase, worth £112,540 to the winner, and as things stand Grey Dawningis the shot-priced favourite and understandably so. Second in this race last year, when he looked sure to win before a bad mistake at the last, he can gain his revenge on Royal Pagaille here with a clear round, and is reported to be raring to go at home by trainer Dan Skelton. Handstands may eventually prove to be his biggest rivals if he picks up his jumping after returning with a second at Carlisle, and is one to watch both here and for future contests.

Sean’s selection:

Wodhooh 2.40pm Ascot to win