Its All About The Derby(s) This week

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(except the podcast linked here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtpQjuf8_0Y&feature=youtu.be which includes the legendary Ron Robinson).

Unsurprisingly the majority of this week’s news is about future events with the Derby top of the list and not a lot going on worth chatting about until we get to the weekend’s Epsom card. What we did get to witness was yet another Aidan O’Brien masterclass as Constitution River won the French Derby (Prix Du Jockey Club) under Ryan Moore despite a horror draw in the 15 stall.

Personally I wish they had saved him for the real Derby (sorry to any French readers) as he would have likely been my pick but history will mark him down as top class after his latest victory and his first Group One. To ride him the way Ryan did suggests supreme confidence – many felt he would be ridden from off the pace on the rail and pray for a gap to arrive -  but his jockey thought otherwise allowing him to race wide for a couple of furlongs before tacking across to join the pack on the outside and only needing a couple of smacks and a vigorous late ride to get up late on for an O’Brien one-two-three (Hawk Mountain second and Montreal third).

He stayed on strongly to suggest a mile and a half will see him in an even better light. Officially the winning margin was three-quarters of a length but I would add a good three lengths of lost ground to that, suggesting he is the best middle distance three-year-old we have seen this season to date.

With the Epsom Derby on my mind, I thought it would be a bit of fun to spark up the memory, not for the best winners, but for the losers who stick in my mind (and still give me nightmares) – something a little different for a change. First up I give you Dancing Brave, the winner of the Craven Stakes, the 2000 Guineas, the Coral Eclipse, the King George and the Arc in 1986 – but not the Derby where he finished second to Shahrastani, finishing fast to be denied by less than a length https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVg2kv4Gj_I.

Jockey Greville Starkey took a lot of stick for what many felt was exaggerated waiting tactics, but trainer Guy Harwood defended him to the hilt (I suspect they were his riding instructions), and he went on show his true worth with one of the most thrilling Arc wins in history – though by then Pat Eddery was in the saddle having taken over when Greville was injured and then keeping the ride.  

Although Dancing Brave felt very personal to a young me (he was trained in Pulborough which isn’t a million miles away) he only takes second place as the loss of El Gran Senor hurts even more and yes, for partly financial reasons! Vincent O’Brien trained the son of Northern Dancer who had won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket from a decent field, took the Irish Derby on his next race – but came so agonisingly close at Epsom – when I watch the replay I still think he is going to win.

In well over 40 years following the sport I have NEVER seen another horse travelling as well as he did in June 1984 and doubt I will again. Beaten by the narrowest of margins by Secreto, if you watch the video here https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=301962557624687 you will see him moving as sweetly as anything, but he was outbattled late on despite fighting back bravely in what I will always see as the one that got away.

Sticking with the Derby and when (or if) you watch any of the replays above just have a look and a listen to the crowds – and then compare them to this Saturday. There was a time when the Derby was held on a Wednesday and the entire country came to a halt for five minutes or so – a bit like the Melbourne Cup – but since it was moved to a Saturday, it feels like it has lost at least some of its edge. 

Unlike some, I am willing to begrudgingly accept that racing doesn’t hold the same intrigue it once did, be that down to the vilification of gambling, animal rights groups insisting horse racing is a bad thing, or a falling off from blindly following tradition, but whatever the root cause – it’s a damned shame.

Finding a solution is proving difficult for those who get paid to sort out such things let alone me, but what we have to do is acknowledge that the supporter base has diminished, like it or not – so we need to do more, much more to attract those who still love the sport, or ignore racegoers and turn it into one big party that goes on into the small hours (not my preference but needs must when the devil drives).

There is now a fight not only of the leisure pound but for the gambling pound with a myriad of different options including “foreign” football, darts, snooker, golf, lotteries and so on which I feel have taken potential racing fans elsewhere in recent years (none of those were on TV 24/7 in the dim and distant past), so our sport needs to offer more to get to grips with the next generations.

The age old argument that concerts charge a fortune to get in and stripe customers up for food and drink as do football is a weak one – they do it because they can get away with it and two wrongs don’t make a right. Royal Ascot sits pretty charging top dollar for entry and refreshments but is sold out every year so they have no need to change, but that is not the case at Epsom (or elsewhere) and making their drinks even “pub prices” would still see a profit and make for an interesting marketing campaign.

Personally, I have never understood why racecourses sub-contract the catering to others and thus building in their company profits on top – why not do it yourself, there is a world of casual labour out there who would jump at the chance of a day or two’s work now and again, and you can then cut prices and advertise it accordingly?

I am not adverse to the odd pint of cider on a warm day, but if I can buy one for £4.20 at my local club, I am by definition going to get  a bit upset at paying up to £7.50 at Epsom having already forked out £70 to get into the Grandstand, or £145 plus to get into the Queen Elizabeth II Stand which doesn’t even include a welcome drink.

To be fair to the Epsom hierarchy they have added Galileo’s, a weather-proof marquee in the Grandstand area with an all-day Ibiza party vibe to attract the youngsters and it may well put a few bums on seats, but I do wonder if they are missing the long-term picture as I think they need to get people interested in the racing who may well go on to visit other tracks and not turn up once a year to get drunk!  

The one, the only, Ryan Moore

 On to the racing….

Saturday

1.30pm Epsom

All eyes are on Surrey this afternoon and our first race is what I will always remember as the John Of Gaunt Stakes, a Group Three over seven furlongs and won last year by 5/1 chance Ten Bob Tony for trainer Ed Walker. Nine runnings in the last 10 years have seen nine different trainers and eight different jockeys (William Buick has won it twice), with ages from four to seven so those stats don’t appear to help us much! Poet Master could surprise a few on this ground with one of his best runs a two and a quarter length second to Beauvatier in a Group Two at Newmarket and although not up to that level recently, he clearly has plenty of ability. Alcantor had some decent form for Andre Fabre in France but hasn’t won since March last year and he will need to improve if he wants to get the better of Never So Brave.  Andrew Baldlings five-year-old looked as if the race would do him good on his return when fifth to Opera Ballo at Sandown, but he clearly has the best form having won the Group One City Of York Stakes last season as well as the Summer Mile at Ascot. The softer going may not necessarily play to his strengths but he has won on it albeit in lesser company and if he handles it, he really ought to prove too good for these.

2.05pm Epsom

The second Group Three on the Epsom card is the mile plus Princess Elizabeth Stakes, a race for filles and mares, and dominated by four-year-olds in the last 10 years with seven winners including the last five in a row, and with the Gosden stable responsible for two of those winners – in 2017 with Laugh Aloud and last year with 9/1 chance Spiritual. They do not have a runner this year but it is still intriguing with Shes Perfect the early jolly and perhaps rightly so after she controversially disqualified from the French 1000 Guineas last year after coming home in front. She has been to the track three times since without a win and disappointed in third on her return at Goodwood when only third to Blue Bolt. She can be class but if you have any belief at all on official ratings then this goes the way of Pacific Mission. Andrew Balding’s Lope De Vega filly needs to buck the trends of older winners here and become the first three-year-old to win this since 2020 but on the ratings, she has 1lb to find with the favourite – yet she gets 12lb weight for age. Second in the Group Two May Hills Stakes at Doncaster last year and second to Balantina in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar she has the form in the book to go close here and at the early prices I feel she is the better value option.

2.40pm Epsom

If the early declarations stand their ground we are in for some contest for the Group One Coronation Cup over a mile and a half though with sudden early week rain and more predicted, the line up may look very different by the time the stalls open. Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien have teamed up to win the last two runnings with Luxembourg in 2024 and Jans Bruegel last year (as well as Highland Reel in 2017), and the last named is back for more, along with stable companions Lambourn and Illinois. Last time out he won the Ormonde Stakes at Chester over a furlong further but he still has his work cut out to deal with Calandagan. Francis- Henry Graffard’s five-year-old is officially the best horse in the world, and I get the feeling that he still has improvement to come. Last season saw him win the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on good to soft, the Champion Stakes at Ascot, and the Japan Cup (in record time) before starting 2026b with a win at Meydan (Dubai) in the Sheema Classic. That is a serious CV for any horse and although I am wary of team tactics from Ballydoyle messing things up, I cannot make a serios argument for his demise.  

3.15pm Epsom

One Epsom handicap covered is more than enough for me with the Betfred Dash over the fastest five furlongs in the world. Digging into past runnings and I quickly discovered that in the last 15 runnings all the winners were aged four to eight, with 14 of them seven or younger. The only three stalls responsible for more than one winner are one two and seven (two winners each), though we have seen successes all the way up to the 19 box so I take that with a pinch of salt. 14 of the 15 finished in the first nine on their previous start, while 14 were officially rated 83 or above, and 14 were rated 105 or lower. The market is no guide at all with winners at up to 50/1 (and two at 33/1), but we do know 13 had raced in the last 60 days, and 13 had raced at least twice this season, with all of them having at least one previous success over the distance. Using all of those as a guide and not a reference work and I have come up with a long shortlist of eight horses and a further look at them tells me that Robert Cowell is responsible for four of them, and Tony Carroll for two – intriguing. Although I can see why the Haggas trained Kinswoman heads the market after her Yarmouth second, she doesn’t fit the stats and my final choice (each way) is Betsen. Trained by Tony Carroll, the only trainer left to have won this before (with Caspian Prince in 2014), the five-year-old won last time out at Chepstow and has been put up 4lb, but he has won before off ratings as high as 95 (races off 86 here), and has to be worth a shilling each way if nothing else.   

3.28pm Musselburgh

Musselburgh hold a Listed race worth looking at this afternoon with the Queen Of Scots Stakes over seven furlongs, but with only two winning favourites from the last 10 runnings it is historically difficult to solve, though only one winner has been a double figure price. Magic Basma is the highest rated according to the handicapper but she has one win from 12 starts which is just about enough to put me off. At the expected odds I feel Havana Pusey may be the better option. She won for the fifth time when successful at Yarmouth over this trip and then finished third in the Group Three Chartwell Stakes at Lingfield, beaten less than two lengths after fluffing the start. Dropped to Listed class here a level start would give her very chance and she looks to have as good a chance as any.

4.00pm Epsom

The big one, our third English Classic after the 1000 and 2000 Guineas, though this timer we step up to a mile and a half at the undulating track that is Epsom. You will all know that this has gone the way of Aidan O‘Brien for the last three years in a row, and in six of the last 10, though only two of those were ridden by Ryan Moore which seems more confirmation of the strength in depth at Ballydoyle than anything about Ryan’s choices on the day. Only two favourites in the last decade is a concern for the backers of Benvenuto Cellini and with Wings Of Eagles scoring at 40/1 in 2017 and Serpentine at 25/1 in 2020, I wouldn’t blame anyone considering the O’Brien outsiders. Item arrives unbeaten after winning the Dante at York and he clearly warrants the utmost respect for Andrew Balding, as does James J Braddock who sits at 12/1 in the betting while the horse he beat at Leopardstown is 11/2 -go figure? It looks a decent race on paper and I wouldn’t write off Ancient Egypt or Maltese Cross either, but after watching the replays a dozen times, a decision has finally been made – if not a happy one. Aidan O’Brien did tell the press that he now sees Chester as the best trial for the Derby, and having decided to send Constitution River to France to win their Derby, the fact that he sends Benvenuto Cellini here as the number one contender suggests he has improved significantly at home – he will need to as none of them particularly impressed me in their trials.

Sean’s Suggestion

Pacific Mission 2.05pm Epsom each way