My Royal Ascot Thoughts For Ladies Day

2.30pm

Seven furlongs for the Chesham Stakes for two-year-olds to kick off the Thursday action, and with plenty of unbeaten horses five to be exact) something clearly has to give. With five of the last 10 winners, all ridden by Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien’s record suggests we look no further than the once raced Aix La Chapelle here, a son of Justify who started his career at the Curagh over this trip when scoring by a length and a half after hitting the front close home and running away from the field. The odds-on Giant Sequoia was back in third for the same stable, suggesting he wasn’t “expected” that day, and if he improves as I hope for the experience, he could prove too powerful in the finish for his rivals here. Revels also won on debut and in his case by three lengths, and as I suspect Karl Burke will have his best meeting yet in 2026, I can see him hitting a place at a double figure price for those looking for an each way alternative.  

3.05pm

The King George V Stakes is in fact a mile and a half handicap restricted to three-year-olds, so once again we are trying to second guess who is one step ahead of their official mark. With winners at up to 22/1 and only two winning favourites (and one of those was a joint jolly) in the last 10 years my expectations are pretty low, but I have heard good things from Newmarket regarding two Godolphin owned horses – just my luck they run in the same race! Into The Light has finished second on his last two starts and was only beaten a head at short-head at Sandown over shorter and I can see why he heads the early markets on that form, but at 20/1 the value call may yet be Guildmaster who is 20/1 as I write. A son of Teofilo with a single win on his two-year-old CV, he reappeared with a an outpaced (and distant) third at Newmarket over a mile and a quarter, but was thought good enough to run in the Group Two Dante Stakes at York where he came home seventh, beaten nine lengths where once more he didn’t have the speed to live with the main players. Upped to a mile and a half here for his handicap debut off a mark of 100, this might be the trip he needs to be seen at his best and with plenty of stamina in his pedigree and the excellent Billy Loughnane in the saddle there are worse bets despite the competitive nature of this event.

3.40pm

The three-year-old fillies who race in the Ribblesdale Stakes will need both class and stamina to come home in front over the mile and a half in a race when no prisoners are likely to be taken. If past runnings are anything to go by we need to look no further than any runners trained by Aidan O’Brien or the Gosdens – after all, they have been responsible for nine of the last 10 winners between them (five from Ireland and four from Newmarket). If life is as simple as that (we can all dream) then we are talking about Legacy Link, Brilliant Star, or Composing with the first named by far the most fancied of that trio. A winner at York in the Musidora Stakes at York in May, she followed that with a second to Thundering On in the Oaks at Epsom when six lengths clear of the third, and although this represents a fairly quick turnaround, that form looked above average at the time and a repeat may be all she needs to come home alone. Nothing particularly jumps off the page as an each way alternative though if you insist, I can see Darl Lucinda outrunning her price, though her lack of experience has to count against her at this level.

4.15pm

In an age when racing is all about speed and less about staying power it’s a breath of fresh air to see the Gold Cup holding its place in the public’s affections. The names of Stradivarius, Kyprios, and Trawlerman still get mentioned in bars and bookmakers around the country, but who will be crowned champion this year after a gruelling two and a half miles, and with £397,000 to the winner of this Group One they have assembled a decent field. It’s beginning to feel like it could be a good day for favourite backers (famous last words), with Scandinavia looking to make it six wins in a row, though be warned this will be his first attempt beyond two miles. Lat year’s St Leger winner has been talked about as a Gold Cup horse for some time now, and arrives in good form after winning a Group Three at Leopardstown in his warm up contest. Tactics could be fascinating here with last years’ winner Trawlerman making his seasonal reappearance, but will Willam Buick dare to make this a true test of stamina with the risk that trying to take the finishing sting out of the jolly will compromise his own chances with a lack of race fitness? Rahiebb only has a neck to find with the favourite on Doncaster form and he has to be of interest at 6/1 for a bit of value, but I get the feeling that Scandinavia saves a little bit back for himself and will pull out just enough to come out on top today.

4.50pm

In my view three-year-old handicaps are a punters worst nightmare (and I am not the only one who thinks that), with a lack of form, potential improvement, and the odd horse who connections know has come on hand over fist at home – but sadly they never tell us until after the race! What we do know is 14 of the last 16 winners came home in the first two last time out and that’s as good a place to start as any, though in this field we only “lose” 17 of the runners, including two of the reserves. 14 of the last 16 came from the first eight in the betting at the off (though obviously I have to use early odds as my guide), and all were rated 87 or above – I’ll use those to create my shortlist of five then go looking at the formbook after that! If anyone is interested, the “fantastic five” are Organise, We’re Goosers, Blue Courvoisier, Outback Heat, and Exclusive Code, but of those five, in the last 15 years the one trainer with the best record is comfortably Harry Eustace who has run three here – winning with  Massaat in 2023 and placing with two others – pretty impressive for a race of this complexity. That alone is more than enough to sway my opinion in the direction of Outback Heat each way, the winner of two of his three starts including over the straight mile here last time out, and although upped 6lb for that by the handicapper, I am hopeful that he is lightly raced enough to have improvement to come.

5.35pm

The Group Three Hampton Court Stakes over a mile and a quarter for three-year-olds is invariably fiercely contested, but all the winners in the last 10 renewals were a single figure price, so we have some hope. Only four are less than 10/1 at present (I have to prepare this a day in advance as you can imagine), and they are Endorsement, Italy, Marshdi., and Oxagon, so in theory, the winner is one of that quartet. The first two named are trained by (can you guess?) Aidan O’Brien, who won this last year with Trinity College and Endorsement arrives here on the back of seven-length success over a mile and a half at Leopardstown though that was only a Listed contest on soft ground which can often exaggerate winning distances. Italy has only one once from six starts and that was on debut, though his fourth at Leopardstown on his return has been franked since, with winner Christmas Day taking the Derby, but you have to wonder why we haven’t seen him since if he is good enough to win this? Morshdi was last seen finishing fifth in the Dante at York over a mile and a quarter and as a son of Dubawi out of a mare who only raced up to a mile and a quarter makes his stamina open to question, while Oxagon finished unplaced in the French Derby and is closely related to more sprinters than I can count which has to be a concern All four have more questions than answers, but if Endorsement takes to the quicker ground then his stamina and recent winning form looks the best on offer, though to me this isn’t all that for a Group Three.      

6.10pm

As if often the case we end with a handicap, it’s almost as if they want to make sure punters and racegoers are skint before they leave! Seriously though, last year and 2024 saw winning favourites, but before that they came home at 50/1, 12/1, 18/1, and 14/1, so this should be fun. No trainer or jockey has won more than one of the six runnings so “nothing to see here”, and we move on to the horses and those with the best form without being crucified by the handicapper. At first glance there isn’t a single runner who could be described as well handicapped which came as a bit of a blow, and with only six runnings there is little or nothing to learn from the stats other than the fact that five of the six came out of the 24 stall or higher, which is how I am going to play, though with very little logic behind it. Elarak cones out of the 31 box for Charlie Hills, and I get the feeling we are yet to see the best of him this season. Three time a winner last year over a mile at Newmarket (July), Lingfield, and Newmarket (Rowley mile) a fast run seven furlongs may be his ideal at this level, and he has shown ability already this season. Fourth at Thirsk on his return when beaten less than two lengths, he was beaten four lengths when sent off favourite at Newmarket over this trip, but raced alone for the last few furlongs and could have done better with some company to race against, and off the same mark here in similar company the 18/1 may pay off each way – though I am far from confident!

Sean’s Suggestion:

Legacy Link 3.40pm Royal Ascot