Japan Cup Preview For Sunday PLUS UK Racing For Saturday

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

A bit of everything this week as I am abroad for some of racing in the flesh,  but no peace for the wicked so here I am throwing in a bit of UK racing as well – I spoilt you, I really do – but before that, my views on the Japan Cup 2025 which is clearly the highlight of my weekend.

Whether we like to admit it – or not – we now live in a big wide world in all respects, with our goods made elsewhere, food imported as necessary, and a global stage for our best to perform on, be they actors, pop stars (is that even a saying these days?), sports stars and even racehorses.

I am writing this from my hotel room in Japan ahead of the 45th running of the Japan Cup at Tokyo racecourse on Sunday afternoon, local time, an invitational contest over the mile and a half (2400 metres) with over $7,000,000 in prize money, in front of a packed house of adoring fans, and last won by a European challenger back in 2005 with Alkaased, trained by Luca Cumani and ridden by Frankie Dettori, and so long ago  that even he hadn’t retired for the first time yet!

To put that comment into a little bit of perspective, Europe do not send that many challengers despite the huge prize money, partly I suspect from racing snobbery (“our racing is the best – full stop”), partly from fear (“if we go and get beaten people will think their racing is the best”), and largely because there are (quite rightly) tricky quarantine rules to overcome, it is in late November at the end of a long hard season for most, and  more importantly, the Japanese are no racing backwater and to beat the best in their own back yard is a Herculean task. Last year Aidan O’Brien sent Derby winner Auguste Rodin, and he only managed eighth which gives us a better idea of what they are up against, but in 2025 Francis-Henry Graffard sends horse of the year Calandagan – but can he bring home the spoils?

The four-year-old Gleneagles gelding has certainly moved up a gear this summer with wins in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Champion Stakes, both at Ascot, all three Group One’s of the highest calibre – so is he “our” best chance for many years -  I am inclined to think he is?

Only five runs this year may leave him relatively fresh, as a gelding he is here for the money and the immortality, no showing off for potential breeding rights, his trainer is as shrewd as they come and will want to do better than Goliath (sixth last year) who you felt was more an owner’s choice than the ideal sort for the race, he handles the quick ground expected, has run well left-handed before (second to Danon Decile in Dubai in the Sheema Classic), and most importantly, seems to still be improving.

He looked a picture when I saw him working this morning and interviews with trainer Francis-Henri Graffard and Aga Khan Studs representative Nemone Routh at the track this morning saw them being polite and respectful (as you would expect), but I felt I detected a positive vibe about his chances so many things in his favour, and reports he has settled in well and improved all year (as I had hoped). He looks the winner to me, but I am viewing though European tinted glasses and he will need to be at his peak to lead this lot home.    

To mention the one horse would be churlish and put me in the same boat as others who ignore the strength in dept of International Racing these days, a drum I have been banging for more years that I care to remember, and the home team will not be rolling over and giving in I can assure you.  The Japanese Racing Authority are happy to furnish us media scribes with more statistics than my little brain can cope with, but I can tell you that the leading trainer in this race (with a runner) is Haruki Sugiyama (Justin Palace), the top jockey is Christophe Lemaire (Masquerade Ball), we have only had ONE winning favourite in the last 19 runnings, and that the number one stall has given us a 25% chance of finishing in the first two home – interesting, but nothing you can pin your flag to. 

That said, if we use the above we MAY come up with the strongest Japanese challengers, and they point the way to 17/8 favourite Masquerade Ball, who arrives here on the back of a win in the Autumn Tenno Sho last time out as well as a fast finishing second in the Japanese Derby, but I note the poor record of favourites and pass him over accordingly. Justin Palace (Cristian Demuro) has not been at his best since winning the spring Tenno Sho in 2023 and recent form suggests a place may be the very best he can realistically hope for even from the prime one stall,  and with the French raider drawing pretty favourably in the eight box (anything single figures was on the wish list) there will be some decent wine drunk tonight at a guess.

Add in Tom Marquand popping over from Hong Kong to ride Brede Weg for trainer Keisuke Miyata and Frenchman Alexis Pouchin on board St Leger winner Durezza and there is a touch more European interest than it appears at first glance and gave me the reasons I needed to be here.

Conclusions do need to be drawn and I cannot pretend I have found it easy – I have no doubt that Calandagan is the best horse here, and official ratings agree with me, but I am also fully aware that Japanese runners dominate this race historically, so it is a difficult choice. At the odds as I write I confess I was pleasantly surprised to see the Aga Khan’s colours as big as 100/30 and Calandagan still looks the value for a win bet to me, while if you fancy a small saver, then Justin Palace has plenty in his favour for a top-three finish at best odds of 18/1 even if I do believe a win is still way beyond him.

Photos credit H.Edwards

Francis-Henri Graffard - Looking For A Big Pay Day Sunday In Tokyo

On to the UK and Irish racing…..

Saturday

11.55am Newbury

Mares only for this two mile plus novice hurdle and in a race won by Dan Skelton twice in the last four years, we have to assume that Sheezer Dancer is a lot better than she seemed when sixth here on her hurdling bow. Sent off a 20/1 chance that day suggesting she hadn’t been showing too much at home, she was actually beaten less than 10 lengths at the line and looks all set to mount a better challenge now. Although I can see her surprising a few, winning may prove beyond her and my vote goes to Clondaw Park. Bought for a huge £320,000 after hacking up in his point-to-point at Lisronagh, the daughter of Walk In The Park is held in very high regard at the Harry Derham yard, and if she is to match her price tag, she will need to be winning a race like this, first time out over hurdles or not.

1.19pm Fairyhouse

Only the two past runnings of this race, both won by four year olds trained by Willie Mullins, and Murcia clearly ticks both those boxes. Already a Grade One winner after taking the Boodles Anniversary Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree last April, she was last seen finishing fourth to Lulamba in the Ballymore Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at Punchestown, also a Grade One, and she really ought to find this far easier pickings. I’m Slippy impressed when winning by five lengths at Cork and she arrives unbeaten, though this represents a very different challenge and he may have to settle for chasing the selection home, even at these weights.

2.00pm Newcastle

Only a small field but one glance at the runner list tells us this contest will have a huge impact on the Champion Hurdle market for 2026 with the winner likely to jump straight to favouritism. Whether we should be betting here is a different question as we all know an on fire Constitution Hill wins this – but the horse we have seen recently doesn’t. The New Lion won the Turners at Cheltenham readily enough and he arrives unbeaten for the Skelton team, while Willie Mullins runs Anzadam, upped in class but another with a flawless record – so something has to give. With chances that The New Lion is better over further, and the Irish raider trying this level for the first time I feel almost cornered into siding with Constitution Hill, more in hope than with confidence, and apart from those who bet elsewhere, who wouldn’t like to see him back to his imperious best.   

2.15pm Newbury

I try to avoid handicaps wherever possible but the Gerry Fielden Hurdle is a race of serious significance, so I need to dig that little bit deeper once more. Looking back at 15 years of “facts” and I see that we have not had a winner priced bigger than 10/1, that 14 winners were aged six or younger, 14 were officially rated 127 or higher, and all were rated 146 or lower.  14 had raced twice or less this season, and none had raced in the last seven days, and if we use that to cut through the field we end up with a shortlist of two with my thoughts being that one of Live Conti or Give It To Me Oj will take home the spoils. Taking last season as a guide, and Live Conti was close to four lengths clear of Give It To Me Oj when they met at level weights in the big juvenile hurdle at Aintree last April and although the Moore horse has clearly improved since, who is to say Dan Skelton’s hasn’t too? The form book doesn’t lie even if it can be overturned, and representing as stable in good sorts and with room for improvement after just the three starts, the four-year-old gelding will do for me despite his skinny price.

2.55pm Newbury

The Coral Gold Cup is certainly one of the big races of the weekend and was won last year by the Kandoo Kid at odds of 8/1, though we have seen winners at all prices from as short as 7/2 all the way up to 33/1 in the last 15 years, so anything is seemingly possible. Finishing in the first six last time out if completing is a stat worth knowing with 12 of the 13 hitting that mark, while 14 were aged 8 or younger, 14 were rated 140 or above, and 14 were rated 155 or below with 12 trying to win off a mark above 160 none successful, and 39 trying off above 152 with a sole success, and 14 had raced once or less this season – interesting. Myretown heads the betting and also fits the facts and he can go well even if the price is shorter than I would like for a horse carrying 15lb more than his latest winning mark, and I am far more tempted by both O’Moore Park and The Changing Maneach way. Willie Mullins’ charge is a frankly insulting 25/1 as I write but is yet to win over fences under rules, pushing me over to Joe Tizzard’s runner. His second to Henry’s Friend in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot should have put him spot-on for this, connections add first-time cheekpieces to help him focus, he is rated just 5lb higher than when successful in the Reynoldstown Chase last February as a novice, and looks as good an each way bet as any on a pretty trick afternoon. 

Sean’s selection:

Murcia 1.19pm Fairyhouse Saturday