Jockey Deals, A Late Christmas Present, And Grand National News (Plus Some Winners)

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(plus Ron Robinson thoughts with me here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PAC7doV_7I. )

The weather continues to be a pain in the posterior here in the UK with most of the better jumps racing called off and some pretty low quality all-weather racing that has seen nothing of note worth writing about – no surprises there – but after giving you all Iberico Lord at 22/1 for free last week I am hoping you don’t really care?

The main news this week has been Harry Cobden signing as retained rider for owner J P McManus, and what many people see as a sign of the fall from grace of trainer Paul Nicholls – we agree to differ. When one of the biggest owners in the National Hunt sphere comes calling you simply can’t say no, akin to being asked to sign for Real Madrid as a footballer I suppose, so those seeing it as an insult to Paul are wide of the mark in my view. No, he is not at the peak of his powers recently, but that is like all trainers, down to the class of the horses in his yard, and why owners should be so fickle after years of success is beyond by loyal brain. I have no doubt whatsoever that Mr Nicholls will be back near the top of the training tree in the years ahead once he has the ammunition to fire, with his will to win and stable facilities as good as anywhere or anyone in the land.

Meanwhile, Nicky Henderson got what could be a seen as a late Christmas present when Southwell announced a £40,000 Flat race over a mile and a half for horses aged four and older where we may well see 2023 Champion Hurdler Constitution Hill in action in a prep race for the Cheltenham Festival. Described as perfect timing by his trainer, the now nine-year-old is a class act at his best, but some, myself included, will question whether a race on the Flat is what is needed for a hurdler who has failed to complete on three of his last four starts.

The “breaking news” (must have been a quiet week) is 72 hour (three day) declarations for the Grand National in April – though I am not entirely sure what use that is to most of us? In theory we now have an extra day to look through the form before picking our horse or horses, but if a week is a long time in politics three days is just as bad in racing as we are second guessing the going even more than normal? I can only assume it’s to get the race in the news for a day longer to big it up a little bit more which makes some kind of sense, but I will be wary of late non-runners screwing up my calculations personally with horses declared on one surface no longer suited by the going come race day, but we shall see.  

Finally, and the detail is way beyond me, the International Federation of Horse Racing Authorities (IFHA) Council on Anti-Illegal Betting and Related Crime published a paper on Excessive Gambling Tax and the Laffer Curve – bit of a mouthful, eh?  In brief (so I can understand it) we have a graph looking for optimal tax revenues, i.e the point where the rate of gambling tax doesn’t push people to the illegal markets. Unfortunately from what I can see/understand, the UK model used 50% tax where the last budget saw gambling getaway with 40% (and horse racing thankfully 15%) but it still makes interesting reading. Higher tax does not mean higher returns to the government coffers as some would think, with lower returns to customers seeing betting cut back, and the bigger players walking away to the black markets for better prices thanks to the illegal providers avoiding the tax regime. With the new numbers not coming into force until April, we are all left hanging to see how much it does or does not hurt our specific industry, but make no mistake – there will be some pain. Bookmakers seem to operate carte blanche to do as they see fit, and I cannot envisage a world where their shareholders take any of the burden when it can all be passed straight on to the unsuspecting punters.     

On to the racing …

Saturday racing

Ascot 12.25pm

Both Brave Guest and Winston Junior arrive here having finished second on both their starts, and they are obvious contenders to get off the mark at the third attempt with Faye Bromley’s son of Churchill the pick in my eyes. Sent off at the head of the market for his Fontwell debut he was stepped up in class last time out in a decent race at Cheltenham when he pulled too hard before being beaten over six lengths by Minella Study. He was also crowded out at a crucial stage making the effort all the better, and if he learns to settle here he might prove too good for interesting French recruit Talakan who won his last start at Amiens for Francis-Henri Graffard.

Haydock 1.25pm

Twelve early entries have been reduced to six at the 48 hour stage which is a shame, especially for each way punters, but with Old Park Star a short-priced favourite my hands feel tied. Nicky Henderson’s Well Chosen six-year-old impressed last time out when strolling home hard held by 12 lengths at Cheltenham, and although he has to give weight to some, he looks a classy recruit who may have bigger fish to fry. Hurricane Pat is his main market rival for the Moore’s and is tough to ignore while the Nicky Richards trained Japetus is improving with every start and at a double figure price, is one to consider for those who don’t bet odds-on.

Ascot 1.40pm

Only five runners for the Grade Two Warfield Mares’ Hurdle over two miles, but a competitive field nonetheless, headed according to both official ratings and the bookmakers by Dan Skelton’s Nurse Susan, who is looking for her hat-trick after victories at Cheltenham and Sandown, though it is noticeable that she has been campaigned over further than this for over two years. If there is a chink in her armour then speed may be it, and a chance is taken on the frustrating Joyeuse. Lightly raced with seven starts and two victories, her yard were far from their peak when she finished ninth over course and distance in December, but she only has 2lb to find according to the handicapper and at her current price she still looks the value call.

Haydock 2.00pm

Time for a bit of profiling, with the Grade One Peter Marsh Chase over three and a quarter miles, a competitive handicap chase. Looking at the last 15 years (12 runnings) and a few facts about past winners soon jump off the page. No winners priced bigger than 20/1 at the off, with 11 at 16/1 or shorter. All had completed on their last start, and all had come home in the first eight, with nine coming home in the first four, though age group tells us nothing I am sorry to report. All winners were officially rated 135 or higher, though only one was rated above 156 which puts me off top-weight Royal Pagaille. None had raced in the last 15 days, but all had raced in the last 90 days, with 11 winners racing within the last 60. None had raced more than four times in the current season, and if we put all those together we come up with a shortlist of Johnnywho and Konfusion. Sue Smith knows exactly the sort needed to take this with three winners and three places from nine attempts in the 12 runnings mentioned, and looks to add to those in her partnership with Joel Parkinson. The eight-year-old arrives in great form, winning three of his four starts this year and unseating at the 11^th over course and distance in November last year, and he seems to be improving with experience, making all to win the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby by seven lengths last time out. Upped an added 9lb for that he needs to do even more now, but he fits the stats, arrives in form, and his stable know what’s needed – all ticks in the right boxes for me.    

Ascot 3.30pm

Four runners for the Clarence House chase over two miles and a furlong, but a decent field with two of them a winner last time out – and the other two finishing second. Jonbon will be ridden by Harry Cobden for the first time which is interesting as the winer of this race last year, but expecting improvement at the age of 10 seems a big ask, though at his best he would have a massive say (and prove a popular winner). Thistle Ask has won his last five over fences and deserves a shot at the big time, but if Il Etait Temps puts in a clear round, he seems the likeliest winner. Willie Mullins sends the Jukebox Jury gelding over from Ireland for this valuable prize, and as he was nine lengths ahead of Jonbon in the Tingle Creek at Sandown last time out, the form is there for all to see. Once again we are sadly talking odds-on (it’s one of those days I’m afraid), but his ability is there for all to see and another win looks more likely than not.   

Sean’s selection:

Winston Junior 12.25pm Ascot Man 1.30pm Kempton