Musings, Superstars (?), And Perhaps A Few Winners

All Thoughts Are My Own.

Well as I write the sun is shining and winter is not on the agenda – but give it a day or two and I won’t be saying the same thing as the nights draw in, the rains fall – and we focus the majority of our attentions on jump racing – another year gone by I suppose.

Firstly for this week I have to congratulate Francis-Henri Graffard on winning the Arc de Triomphe with Daryz who was not even on my shortlist, and all the connections of Asfoora for winning the Prix de l’Abbaye for Australia, though I have not backed down on my view that very soft ground would not have been ideal for those who were making hay earlier in the season.

Other news is relatively thin on the ground this week, though the big guns were out in force at Newmarket for the Tattersalls Book One sales from Tuesday, looking to spend their money on the better bred bluebloods. I cannot pretend it isn’t interesting, but I am wary that as racing continues to plead poverty to the British government regarding potential tax rises, owners spending in the millions for an unraced horse has to look obscene to the decision makers who are looking in from the peripheries. Sheikh Mohhamed was there in person, as were anyone who is important in the buying game (Coolmore, Sheikh Fahad, Kia Joorabchian et al), and it was the last named who made the first-day splash, paying 3.6 million guineas for a Frankel colt out of Aljazzi and grabbing the early headlines. If he wins races and goes on to be a stallion he COULD be money well spent, but a quick glance at the racing the same day (Tuesday) and the most valuable prize on offer was  £9,160 at Leicester (the rest of the races were considerably less), so he needs to win 413 races at that level to break even – and that’s before training and other costs! Meanwhile, Godolphin also pounced for a Sea The Stars colt, paying 3.7 million Guineas  To me, it’s the tail wagging the dog (I was brought up that horses should be bred to race, not raced to breed), but it does help to finance the sport overall and maintain public interest , and if I won the lottery I’d be there bidding as well so I mustn’t be too two-faced.      

Meanwhile (and I really do not want to come over as too negative), Ambiente Friendly, second in the Derby to City Of Troy last year, is set to make his debut over hurdles at Huntingdon in November. Sadly, his breeding (by Gleneagles out of a Fastnet Rock mare) was presumably not seen as good enough for a career at stud despite his form (he was also third in the Irish Derby) so they had him gelded, but a pedigree idiot like me will always struggle to understand how a horse beaten less than three lengths by City Of Troy, who now stands at a fee of 75,000 Euros wasn’t sent off to the paddocks at a lower price – but still a lot more than he can ever win over hurdles barring the major Festivals?

On to the racing…..

Saturday

Newmarket 1.50pm

I am a glutton for statistics as you may have noticed, and with Aidan O’Brien winning two of the last eight runnings, Ralph Beckett two, and Charlie Appleby three, it may be best to focus our attentions on that trio. At the early declaration stage Aidan had EIGHT of the 20 runners, but he is now down to two in the shape of Endorsement and Pierre Bonnard, both winners last time out. With Ryan Moore out injured, working out the jockey bookings is a conundrum in itself, but having asked Christophe Soumillon to step in a I am inclined to think that he will be getting first dibs when they have more than one runner, and IF I am correct that points to the son of Camelot who set them back 280,000 Euros as a yearling. Fourth on the grass at Leopardstown first time out, he was sent to the Dundalk all-weather to further his education where he won very easily by two and a quarter lengths, and if gets the mile and a quarter at the first attempt, I can see him winning this.  

Newmarket 2.25pm

Either Godolphin (Saeed bin Suroor, Charlie Appleby, or Andre Fabre) or Aidan O’Brien have won the last nine runnings between them, with the Ballydoyle stable responsible for ten of the 20 early declarations (50%) which makes life a misery for those who like an ante-post punt (not me, I am delighted to say). The last eight winners have been priced at 5/1 or shorter so it makes good sense to focus at or near the head of the market, and Al Zanati heads the early betting for Charlie Appleby and William Buick after winning his one start, but that form has to be questionable with the runner-up a 50/1 shot, though he has won since albeit a Hamilton maiden. Straight Up looked the better horse when strolling home by three lengths at Listowel on his only start, running on well over the seven furlongs on heavy ground, but as a son of Wootton Bassett he should be far happier on the quicker ground expected at headquarters. He does need to improve, but connections will be looking for a career at stud since the passing of his sire, so we can be assured he will be tuned to the minute to try and win this.     

Newmarket 3.00pm

In a race with an esteemed list of past winners that includes City Of Troy, St Marks Basilica, Pinatubo, Chaldean, and Too Darn Hot, we can be assured that the winer here will be shorter for the 2000 Guineas 2026 after the race than he was before. The last 10 runnings have all gone to a top yard (Charlie Appleby, Aidan O’Brien, the Gosdens, or Andrew Balding) and this year could be more of the same with seven of the nine declared representing the yards mentioned. Distant Storm heads the betting for Charlie Appleby and William Buick after winning the Group Three Somerville Tattersalls Stakes by close to five lengths, but 9/4 is skinny enough and I am going to hoe that this year bucks the trends. Alparsian has been ignored in the markets for reasons unknown and arrives with an unbeaten record for Karl Burke after winning a novice by five lengths at Leicester over seven furlongs before dropping back in trip for a very valuable sales race at the Curragh which he won by an impressive three and a half lengths despite giving weight to all bar one of his rivals. This will be his first venture into Group company I admit, but he has earned a place in the line-up and at a double figure price I will be backing him each way accordingly with jockey Clifford Lee keeping the ride.

Newmarket 3.40pm

We had a fourth place in the big handicap I picked to profile last week (hopefully some of you got paid out but non-runners meant others were not so lucky), but there is clearly some merit to the concept, so we go again with the Cesarewich this afternoon – wish me luck, I’ll need it! Looking at the last 15 runnings (I can go back further but don’t see the point) and the things that stand out are as follows: 14 of the 15 came home in the first six on their previous outing, 14 were aged eight or younger (13 were seven or younger), 14 were officially rated 86 or higher, 14 were rated 101 or lower, 13 ran in the last 90 days, none had last raced within seven days, 14 had raced seven times or less this season, and all 15 had raced over two miles or more before. Using those as my starting point (I dropped the age to seven to get rid of a few), and we can quickly cut the field down from 21 to six - not ideal to be honest but better than nothing I suppose!  Of the six remaining (for your interest,

Divine Comedy, Bunting, Manxman, Alphonse Le Grande, Ndaawi, and Mordor), my next port of call is the trainer record in this race, and W P Mullins (Bunting) and Tony Martin (Alphonse le Grande) are the only ones left who have won it before (three times and once respectively), but 8/1 and 7/1 in a race like this doesn’t seem big enough to me even if they have been laid out for this. Manxman has won off a mark within 3lb of his rating this afternoon, and the Crisfords have only had the one runner here when the same horses was third last year, and at 16/1 with Jack Callan claiming 5lb off his back, he will be my each way suggestion.

Sean’s suggestion:

Alparsian each way 3.00pm Newmarket