NEW VIEWS AND ASCOT THOUGHTS

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

I have a little more time on my hands this week while I work out my next book (all available on Amazon, hint hint for anyone yet to buy them), so let’s start with the retirement of the one, the only Derek Thompson who stepped down from commentary after Wolverhampton this week at the age of 75. Personally, I wouldn’t want his job for all the tea in China – get it right and you were only doing your job but get it wrong, and social media is set alight with abuse and insensitive comments – Tommo can’t undo what he says whereas I can retype this sentence and no-one is any the wiser.

I wasn’t lucky enough to spend too much time with him myself, but on the few occasions I did I found him polite and courteous with zero signs he felt he was a star, and much as some will disagree, I will miss his dulcet tones with every word he spoke meant with the very best of intentions.

Meanwhile, the racing politics rumble on as we all wait for the answer to the will he/won’t he question regarding Lord Allen’s appointment as Chair of the BHA. I only know what I have read (these things are above my pay grade), but the gist of things seems to be that he won’t take the job unless he has the tools to do it. That has caused ructions in racing’s (many) corridors of power, all of whom want to keep their current power base intact and their slice of the ever diminishing pie – but the cold hard truth is that racing is in trouble, and it needs a revolution, simple as that. Someone, Lord Allen or not, needs to take it by the scruff of the neck and give it a good shaking – some will win, some will not, but everyone loses if said pie disappears for good and the status quo isn’t working, we all know that. Surprisingly, I wasn’t even asked to apply – maybe I am seen as too radical – or just too logical perhaps?

On to the racing…

Saturday

Ascot 1.40pm

I can certainly see why Dance To The Music heads the early betting after the Godolphin filly won readily enough despite running green on her only start at Newmarket, but 9/4 looks too skinny and I will be backing Jack Channon’s Sukanyas each way at a much bigger price. Tipped by yours truly ahead of a winning debut at odds of 16/1, that price suggests there may be plenty of improvement to come, and although she “only” won by a length at Newbury, she was repeatedly denied a clear run that day before getting out to go and win. She does need to do more to win this, but so does the favourite, and at eight times the odds or so, she certainly appeals as the better value.

York 2.00pm

It’s time to dissect another handicap on a Saturday afternoon and this time, we will have a look at the Sky Bet Dash over five furlongs due off at 2.00pm. Using the last 15 years of statistics and I note: 13 of the last 15 winners were drawn 12 or lower, 12 had finished in the first eight last time out, 13 were priced 12/1 or shorter at the off (I can only use early prices for obvious reasons), 13 were aged four to seven inclusive, 13 were rated 88 to 100, and 13 had raced in the last 30 days. Add those together and we soon end up with a shortlist of three, namely Jubilee Walk, Pocklington, and Elmonjed. Of those three my next stop is always trainer form in this race, and that points the way to Elmonjed. Willam Haggas has only had the four runners in the timescale covered, winning in 2014 with Muthmir, and if I have all the correct ingredient in my recipe, then he may follow up with my suggestion.

York 2.40pm

19 runnings of the Group Two York Stakes have only yielded a single three-year-old winner when Best Alibi took the first running back in 2006, and if that statistic holds true in 2025, then we can put a line though three of the seven runners. Almaqam may be a short price but understandably so as he has 2lb in hand of the out of sorts Royal Champion, and better still he arrives here after winning the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown, beating none other than Ombudsman, who won the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot next time out before his second in the Eclipse, both Group Ones. That form looks head and shoulders above anything his rivals can currently muster, and if he runs to form, he should win – simple as that.     

Ascot 4.10pm

A frankly bitterly disappointing five runners for the Group One King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, a contest won by some of the all-time greats including the legendary Enable (three times). Calandagan heads the market for French trainer Francis Henri Graffard, but it took him 11 races before he won his first race at this level, and talented as he is, he is not one I want to be relying on. Jan Breugel had his measure when they met at Epsom and cheekpieces are added here to help him focus, but old pal Rebel’s Romance will do for me. Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin owned seven-year-old is as tough as teak and has won all around the World, and he has been a revelation since returning to race on home territory. Wins at York and Ascot this year have been at a lower level, but he stays further than this and if Aidan O’Brien second-string Continuous takes them along at a good clip, he may be able to sue his added stamina to good advantage

Sean’s Suggestion (last weeks each way “tip” was second at 10/1)

Almaqam 2.40pm York