Cheltenham Day One - The Good and The Wishful Thinking

Cheltenham Tuesday

It’s arrived – the greatest race meeting on the planet bar none starts this afternoon and my sole objective is to get out the other side with a profit if possible – or at the very least, to minimise losses.

It is always the toughest of calls, with horses arriving in the handicaps with a few pounds up their sleeves (but which ones?), and novice events choc-a-bloc full of recent winners and unbeaten horses open to improvement – a delightful minefield that will keep me burning the midnight oil day after day.

I cannot help myself and feel duty bond to start with the opener, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle over two miles and half a furlong. The Irish have won this for six of the last 10 runnings though they are up against it in 2026 with Nicky Henderson’s Old Park Star dominating the early betting, and I have to be honest and tell you this may not be the strongest ever renewal by some margin.

Once again we walk into that difficult balancing act of favourites (who head the market for good reason) and value (by definition, less likely to win) and although I would love nothing more than a British winner, on this occasion I have come down on the side of El Cairos for the Gordon Elliott stable.

Already being spoken of as a serious Champion Hurdle contender for 2027, the £410,000 purchase fell at Leopardstown when looking the likeliest winner on Boxing Day and toyed with his opposition at Thurles last time out.

His bumper form is out of the top drawer, and although I am wary of his jumping letting him down here as well, if he learned from his experiences he looks booked for the first three home, with the Willie Mullins trained Mighty Park expected to try to make all and set the race up perfectly for him.

On paper (and it rarely works out that way), our second contest is a straight fight between Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins, this time with Lulamba and Kopek Des Bordes respectively.

As I write there is little between them in the betting, but once again my Irish contacts simply will not hear of defeat for the less experienced son of No Risk At All who comes here with just the one run over fences to his name when he was successful by 13 lengths at Navan.

He barely touched a twig that day and looked a natural (famous last words) but he will need a step forward to get the better of the main home challenger, who has won all three over the larger obstacles after finishing second in the Triumph Hurdle at last year’s meeting, but although he undoubtedly has the speed, I just wonder if he needs to grow a touch before he can mix it with my selection.      

There was literally zero chance of pre-empting my preview of the Champion Hurdle as we all waited to see whether Willie Mullins would send Lossiemouth here or for the (in theory) easier Mares Hurdle, but now we know.

Before making my decisions clear, a word for Golden Ace, once again the forgotten horse despite winning this last year. Why she is so underrated, or “lucky” as others say is an insult to the eight-year-old mare who has now been “lucky” seven times over hurdles, and nearly as fortunate last time out when second to Sir Gino at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle. Sadly that rival will not be here, and as we all know neither will Constitution Hill, so to me, this race looks pretty open with favourite The New Lion classy on his day with five wins from six over hurdles, but just the one over two miles or thereabouts, and a slow pace ending with a sprint could yet find him out.

Lossiemouth heads the betting, but at 2/1 all the value may have disappeared already, and Gordon Elliott is sweet on the chances of Betterdaysahead. Rated 1lb superior to her fellow mare, she has been laid out for this all season, winning the Irish Champion Hurdle by over three lengths last time out (Lossiemouth second), and at 9/2,she certainly looks the value call to me.  

The Rest of the Cheltenham Card in brief.

You will see my three best bets elsewhere, but as it is the one and only Cheltenham Festival, every race deserves at least a passing mention!

2.40pm – The early betting suggests the bookmakers are running scared of J P McManus with his pairing of Saratoga and Manlaga vying for favouritism before the final declarations were out, but sorry JP, much as you are a breath of fresh air for the sport, I have other ideas.

A four-year-olds handicap at the Cheltenham Festival seems to invite a horse hiding his r her light under a bushel until the day, but that is something we cannot predict and I can only work with the facts in front of me. J J Slevin has ridden the winner of this race twice from five rides, while Joseph O’Brien has a 25% success rate (33% placed), and they team up with Glen to Glen, who got off the mark last time out at Cork and at 10/1 or so, he looks sensible each way material.

The O'Neill boys - the stats suggest they could have a winner today

Glen Glen each way  

3.20pm - Either J P McManus has put together a few tasty multiples or the bookmakers are trying to make sure he doesn’t want to, with his horses filling the first two in the early betting for the Ultima Chase, just as they did for the previous contest.

Once again I am trying a combination of past winners attributes plus a final decision based on the form book and my own thoughts, and in this case that leads to a total outsider, so bets should be kept pretty small accordingly.

Johnnywho appears to be the forgotten McManus horse, but the nine-year-old represents Jonjo and A J O’Neill who have an excellent record in this race, while Richie McLernon rides whose record isn’t too shabby either.

Add recent wind surgery and first-time cheekpieces and I would not be the slightest bit surprised to see him gambled on come race day, and at 14/1 or so he could yet run into the places at his peak.  

Johnnywho each way

4.40pm – The Class One Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase is a conundrum in itself and if we can find a horse to hit the top four home I will be a very happy man.

I always find it slightly embarrassing when I find a horse at a massive price as it makes me feel I have missed something, but you should never change your mind (how awkward would that be if the horse wins), so Midnight It Is – it is.

Gavin Cromwell’s 10 year old is the only one who comes through all my filters for the race (before the final one I had a shortlist of five which was pretty decent for a race this competitive), though I will be the first to admit he needs a step forward to get competitive after a seventh last time out off 3lb lower at Fairyhouse.

That was a decent race, but I am hoping the step up in trip for the first time in years may help him recapture his best form, which would make him a danger to all.

Midnight It Is each way

5.20pm – There is no logical reason whatsoever who I should like a three and three quarter mile novice handicap chase any more than pulling my own teeth out, but for some reason I really enjoy looking at this race – though that does not mean I find the winner as often as I would like.

Backmersackme had a lit of possible races at he festival so it is clearly significant that connections have decided to aim him here, but he had to be pretty hard ridden to score at Leopardstown last time out and races off a mark 8lb higher today.

He is expected to improve for this stamina test, but so should Newton Tornado who represents Rebecca Curtis who has a decent record in this race with two winners from eight attempts in recent years.

An easy winner at Doncaster last time out he has also gone up 8lb for his sins, but the fact that he has won over three miles on heavy ground before tips the balance for me ahead of this stamina sapping contest.

Newton Tornado each way