Royal Ascot Days Three and Four

Thursday

Maybe, just maybe, I have been watching a little too much French racing recently (and Yes I have the bug), but I do feel that as patriotic Brits (which I most certainly am), we can let “foreign” raiders slip under the radar and go off at prices that simply do not reflect their chances. Of course they won’t all win, but with French prize money sadly so much better than ours, more and more big-time owners are starting them off in France for the cash – and attacking our better races when the opportunity arises. Afjan could (hopefully) be a prime example of what I am talking about, as the Henri-Francois Devin trained colt looks to win the Norfolk stakes over five furlongs at 2.30pm. An Al Shaqab owned son of Mehmas who is 100% bred to be at his best over this trip with his dam runner-up in the Queen Mary in 2016, and the winner of his only start at Chantilly in early June I will be punting him each way here at a big price as he has done nothing wrong and would never be that price were her trained by a Gosden or an O’Brien etc.    

Afjan each way

There is 100% a pattern emerging in my recent scribblings (maybe it was something I ate) but why oh why is the 116 rated Illinois 6/4 for the Gold Cup and the 118 rated Candelari 100/30 – answer, because he is French! Seriously though, I can easily see why the Aidan O’Brien colt is at the head of the market having won his last two at Longchamp last October in the Qatar Prix Chaudenay and on his return over shorter at Chester. That said, Francis-Henry Graffard’s gelding is lightly raced with four wins from five starts, the latest over close to two miles at Longchamp in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier, and although the faster ground is a question he has to answer having never faced it before, he is a son of Franke out of a Barathea mare and on breeding, he could even improve dramatically for it.      

Candelari Each Way

I am loving the look of this race from a betting perspective with Saeed Bin Suroor’s Tornado Alert my idea of a decent bit of value for an each way punt. Fourth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket over the mile, he stepped up in trip for the Epsom derby and was not disgraced in sixth, beaten eight and a quarter lengths at the line after weakening inside the final furlong over the mile and a half.  He still finished ahead of favourite Delacroix, French raider Didak (I know, my losing suggestion), champion two-year-old The Lion In Winter and the previously unbeaten Pride Of Arras, and tries a new trip here which may suit him ideally. If he reproduces that form dropped into Group Three company, I honestly think he could be more than good enough to win this, but at a double figure price a top three spot will do for me - here’s hoping!    

Tornado Alert Each Way

Friday

I am loving the look of the Commonwealth Cup over six furlongs at 3.05pm in what may yet turn out to be one of the races of the meeting. I can see why Shadow Of Light is favourite after his third in the 2000 Guineas over a mile where he lost two places in the final 110 yards, but he is 9/4 and I find Jonquil even more interesting at a bigger price. An easy winner over seven furlongs at Newbury on his first start for Andrew Balding after the retirement of Sir Michael Stoute, he was stepped up to a mile at Longchamp in the French 2000 Guineas where he was beaten a head by Henri Matisse, second in the St James’s Palace Stakes on Tuesday. He has a fantastic cruising speed which is what makes me think this trip will not be an issue, and if Christophe Soumillon rides him accordingly, I simply cannot see why Colin Keane has chosen to ride Babouche instead.

Jonquil Each Way

In my opinion Realign is better than a handicapper when you look at his form profile. As a two-year-old he was second to Shadow of Light, beaten two lengths at Newmarket, and he has gone on to finish third in the English 2000 Guineas, and on his second start he was a four length third at York to Angelo Buonarroti, who was then third in the Group Two Royal Lodge Stakes and is now rated 106. The William Haggas trained colt had his one start of this season at Salisbury where he won his maiden by over five lengths without really breaking a sweat, and with that run under his belt and his juvenile form, a rating of 93 way well seriously underestimate his true abilities.    

Realign Each Way

I will admit I have really struggled to find a third suggestion today and I suggest that if you do have a bet on Bibi Dahl in the opener at 2.30pm, you make it a small one! The truth is you can never tell with the American raiders whether they are here because they have a chance – or if they come over for a day out at Royal Ascot. Trained by Jorge Delgado, and to be ridden by Umberto Rispoli for AMO Racing USA, the daughter of American Pharoah has raced once at Gulfstream when beaten three and three-quarter lengths by Lennilu (third in the Queen Mary here on Wednesday), stating on well after the winner had flown. She steps up a couple of furlongs here which may well suit her a lot better, and at a huge price she may (just may) be worth the smallest of each way bets.  

Bibi Dahl Each Way (to pennies!!)