Royal Ascot Is Coming - Here Are My Early Thoughts

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

There is lots to talk about this week (which is handy, because I am on holiday next week so I won’t be writing an article), starting with the not unexpected appointment of Irish jockey Colin Keane as the retained rider for Juddmonte. Following on from the likes of Pat Eddery, Richard Hughes, and James Doyle he has some big shoes to try and fill, but you don’t get crowned six-times Irish Champion jockey without plenty of talent, as I am sure you will join me in wishing him the best of luck. Everyone assumes the appointment was due to his ride on Field Of Gold, but I suspect Juddmonte were looking to get a retained jockey for the first time in years regardless, and he certainly fits the profile.

Moving swiftly on and what did everyone else think of the Oaks and the Derby this year – apart from the ridiculous entry prices (£70 for a child – really?) It is always hard to tell just how good each generation is as they can only beat their compatriots in the classics, but if you were not entertained by both races – you must have backed a loser! I can’t pretend I had either winner (because I didn’t) but I can still appreciate both top class horses and the skills from the saddle, and how good was Ryan Moore on Minnie Hauk in the Oaks?  Getting up late on to beat stable companion Whirl (who ran a blinder by the way) under a brilliant ride, I really should have taken note of the jockey’s pick – because on the formbook I would never have even considered a filly whose last run was a length win in the Chester Oaks which has looked substandard for many years now. Those at Ballydoyle knew how much she had improved while the rest of us hadn’t a clue ,and it will be interesting to see if she improves again as hoped.

As for the Derby, it was nice of Ryan to prove he is human after all, as he rode eventual ninth Delacroix, neglecting Lambourn who came home a very willing winner for Wyne Lordan. I truly hope he goes on to prove world class as we have seen too many Derby winners flop after the big race, negating its importance in some eyes, and we need a decent horse to go on from there to put it back on the World map. I can certainly see him heading to the St Leger if they want him to have a future as a National Hunt sire that is, and whether he was better than the rest or simply outstayed those bred for shorter will only be proven over time.

My next subject is titled “has anyone seen Lord Allen? All set to take over the chair of the BHA, he has postponed taking up the appointment as he continues discussions with all interested parties. I would like to think he is a man of principles (in this sport, surely not), and is holding out for a deal that will allow him to actually run the sport – whatever next? You will have read elsewhere that racing is seemingly paralysed by the current set-up that makes it difficult for anything to get through at the committee stage, and if we want the sport to progress, that has to stop and stop soon. We may not need a dictatorship at the top of the sport, but we do need a body without vested interests making sensible decisions. Racecourses want one thing, trainers another etc etc in a vicious never ending circle, and to me, the BHA need to be given enough power to get on with it, even if they will upset one or more party in the short term. Personally, I am really hoping Lord Allen is calling their bluff with a “I can save racing but only under my rules” mantra and then gets his way, because if he does walk, who of note will want the poisoned chalice?    

As I started to put the bare bones of this together on Monday morning we received the sad news that Peter Easterby had passed away at the ripe old age of 95. An absolute legend of the game (and I do not use those words lightly) he remains to this day the only trainer to saddle more than 1000 winners on the Flat – and another 1000 over jumps. Renowned for pulling off a gamble now and then (in the days when you could get a bet on) , he trained five Champion Hurdle winners with Saucy Kit, Night Nurse (Twice) and Sea Pigeon (twice) and two Cheltenham Gold Cup winners in Little Owl and Alverton. Never one to shirk a task and too straight talking for some (?), he started training in 1951 and retired in 1996 when handing over to son Tim. He will be sorely missed by all in racing, and is a reminder of the glory days when the North had most of the best horses in their yards.   

To end with, the racing isn’t all that this weekend, so I thought I had better put up a Royal Ascot Lucky 15 as I will be watching from a bar in Spain this year!  As I have said before, I do not like betting antepost, so my advice is to wait until non-runner no bet rules are in place so you get your money back if plans change, but here we go regardless – nothing too inspiring, but we could still make a profit.

Tuesday 3.40pm

The early betting for the King Charles III Stakes over five furlongs sees Believing heading the markeet but at a bigger price, last year’s winner Asfoora will do for me. The Australian raider’s connections will have learned plenty from last year with regard to travel arrangements, training needs etc, and although he is now seven, that is not old for a sprinter and she could well double up, with the 3lb sex allowance a bonus once again.

Wednesday 4.20pm

If Los Angeles turns up for the Prince Of Wales Stakes as expected then I cannot see why he is as big as 7/2 with Ryan Moore almost certain to ride. He has been a much improved performer this year winning twice at The Curragh over this sort of trip, and with the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in the Autumn his main target. He will want or even need a fast ruin race here as this is really his minimum trip, but he is a proper battler when the chips are down and if he can get to the front, it will take a good one to find a way to pass him.   

Friday 3.05pm

It may prove to be wishful thinking, but with Field Of Gold the even money favourite for the St James’s Palace Stakes on the Tuesday, I really hope Juddmonte allow Jonquil to drop back in trip and take in the Commonwealth Cup this afternoon. He oozes class in every stride and would have finished closer in France had jockey Oisin Murphy been a little more assured of his stamina over the mile, but dropped in trip he can be given his head and I honestly think he could have too much natural speed for all of these rivals.    

Saturday 3.40pm

I have been watching a lot of French racing recently and I can see why Lazzat is favourite for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes here. Not only does the four-year-old arrive on the back of a five and a half length win in her pre race at Chantilly, but he stays seven furlongs which can only help him off a fast run race at Ascot. Seven wins from 10 starts is an impressive strike rate, and this has been his target all season, unlike some of the opposition. Much as I had hoped for a bigger price, I suspect he will be bigger come race time with British punters wary of the value of his form, and personally I will await SP in this particular case in the hope of a better price. 

Saturday racing

2.40pm Sandown

Star of Mehmas heads the early betting here after her head second at York in the Westoe Stakes, and with Ryan Moore sticking to the ride on the Richard Hughes trained filly. I suppose that is understandable, but she is officially 4lb inferior to Coto De Caza at these weights and who is to say the Crisford’s filly hasn’t improved from two to three? Three wins from five starts last season marked her down as a filly to follow, with the latest in Group Three company at Newmarket (so dropping in class this afternoon), we do have to take her fitness on trust after eight months off, but if she is 90% I am rather hoping she will outclass all these rivals and reverse Ayr form where she was a length behind the jolly.

3.00pm York

In my opinion, for what it’s worth, Absurde heads the market here because of the Willie Mullins factor, but I am more than happy to take him on with Andrew Balding’s Alsakib, the mount of James Doyle. Remembering this is Listed class, he was last seen being beaten a length and a half in the Group Two Yorkshire Cup at York behind the very classy Rebel’s romance. When you consider that was his first start of the season, and that he drops down in class on his second start after being gelded, and you can see why I like his chances assuming even nominal improvement.

3.20pm Chester (handicap)

Frankies Dream heads the early markets after his win at York last time, but he was all out to win by a short head and an added 4lb in this better race may just catch him out. Jouncy ran well enough in the circumstances in Listed class at Salisbury when outpaced at a crucial stage over the six furlongs, but he returns to handicap company here off a mark 1lb lower, and more importantly, steps up to just shy of a mile for the first time. As a son of Wootton Bassett out of an Oasis Dream mare there is  hope that the trip will bring about plenty of improvement and if that is the case, he could go well and may even be an each way price – if only just.

3.50pm Sandown

The obligatory betting insanity here with a seventeen runner maiden I decided to look at, and a chance to see Colin Keane in action in the Juddmonte colours as he rides the unraced Gran Descans, a son of Frankel who caught the World’s attention in the same silks. My thought process is like me, nice and simple, although Colin is now retained by the owners, would they fly him over for a horse without a chance – I doubt it? Out of the Group Three winning mare Big Break, and thus a half-brother to Listed winner Georgeville, I sadly doubt he is a “worldy” like his Dad, but he may have been found a winning opportunity first time out by Harry Charlton and the team – though I will be having small each way stakes if he is 9/2 or bigger.

4.10pm York (maiden)

Stellar Sunrise looked a typical Andrew Balding newcomer when debuting at Goodwood, missing the start due to his inexperience and learning his job as the race went on, keeping on well over the six furlongs to be nearest at the finish, beaten a length and a half into second place but three lengths clear of the third.  On breeding (by Space Blues out of an Invincible Spirit mare) he will be better over further than this by the end of the season, but he showed enough first time out to suggest he can win this before moving up in class to slightly better things.

Sean’s Suggestion:

Alsakib 3.00pm York Saturday