Royal Ascot Saturday Complete - Time For A Lay Down In A Dark Room

2.30pm

We start the final day with a Group Two five furlong sprint for two-year-olds, and with 14 a winner last time out and eight unbeaten wish me the best of British finding the winner (or even a place) in the Norfolk Stakes! It came as no surprise to me to see Aidan O’Brien’s Carry The Flag the early market leader, but at 9/4 that seems based on reputation more than his May second to stable companion Great Barrier Reef, and at those prices I will look elsewhere. Force Noir looks interesting on his first start for Kevin Philippart De Foy after winning at Naas by more than four lengths after making all the running and he can go well, but the one I was most taken with is the Clive Cox trained Orthodox. He stayed on strongly under a tender ride to win on debut at Salisbury, and in a race where there are so many potential front runners involved I can see this being run at a suicidal pace, leaving the likes of the Havana Grey colt who should stay further to pick them up late on over the minimum trip.

3.05pm

With three winning favourites and a 16/1 shot in the last decade this is normally a complex one to try and solve, but if Kalpana turns up at the peak of her powers, she has every chance but is priced accordingly.  The five-year-old mare is already a dual Group One winner (and this is a Group Two), and showed her wellbeing with a  win at Newbury on her return, but I do have a slight concern about the quicker going (she was third in the Ribblesdale here on her only other run on ground with the word firm in it), and feel Goliath could have her measure. He did come unstuck on fast ground at Del Mar but has won on it here when easily seeing off Bluestocking in the King George, and although he can be a bit of an enigma, on his day he is all class and better value at 13/2 in my opinion with a “cowardly” each way bet my idea of the best way forward.

3.40pm

The Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes is a Group One over six furlongs that saw French raider Lazzat win at odds of 9/2 last year, but that’s only part of the story. Blue Point won at 6/4 in 2019, and Dream Of Dreams was the winning 3/1 favourite in 2021, but we have also seen Naval Crown (33/1), and Khaadem (80/1) win in the last decade so it looks like all things are possible! Looking for recent draw bias and I learned nothing there (expect the one stall hasn’t seen a winner in a very long time), but I did notice that in the last 15 years, 13 of the winners had come home in the first five last time out, the majority (12) were aged four or five, and all expect one had an official rating of 111 or above. Not one of those facts puts me off Australian mare Jolistar who has settled in well to her new surrounding and put in a sparkling piece of work last week. Her form down under looks head and shoulders above anything our home grown contingent can offer with the Group One T J Smith Stakes her latest victory, and barring any issues, she ought to send favourite backers home happy this afternoon. As an official member of the Ka Ying Rising fan club, it would be remiss of me not to mention Satono Reve, put in his place by the Hong Kong superstar at Sha Tin last time out – but what horse wouldn’t be? He travels over from Japan with solid claims and if the jolly is turned over, he seems by far the most likely contender, with Kind Of Blue my idea of the best of the Brits at a bigger price for a top three finish.   

Ka Ying Rising - Will The Form Be Upheld At Royal Ascot?

4.20pm

I have always had a soft spot for the Jersey Stakes over seven furlongs even if that has not always translated into me finding the winner – fingers crossed for this season’s renewal! William Buick and James Doyle have each ridden two winners in the last 10 runnings while Charlie Appleby has trained the winner twice, and the Appleby/Buick pairing are represented here by Catullus, a very easy winner last time out in a Goodwood handicap, his first start following wind surgery. That was a lower class, but he was pretty impressive and at 12/1 he may yet be the value call, but it’s a tough race to get right. On form alone I like The Prettiest Star, fourth in the 1000 Guineas over the mile on her first start of the year, and if she has the speed for the drop in trip she could make me look (more) stupid, but I am hoping there is more to come from the son of Invincible Spirit – each way of course!   

5.00pm

The Wokingham is, as always, fiercely competitive with a huge field thundering down the Ascot straight for this Class two six furlong handicap, won last year by 28/1 chance Get It for George Baker and Seamie Heffernan. One favourite in the last 10 years doesn’t bode well for those looking to have a punt on Binhareer who heads the early markets as I write, with the decades results reading 10/1, 25/1, 33/1, 7/2f, 18/1, 8/1 18/1, 22/1, 12/1, and 28/1 – ouch. I have to assume James Doyle had the pick of the Wathnan Racing runners and chose Carlisle winner Realign, but James McDonald isn’t a bad “sub” to have on your side, and I like the chances of Leovanni at a much bigger price. A decent two-year-old career included a win in the Group Two Queen Mary Stakes over five furlongs here in 2024, and although not at that level since, she has run well and gone close in some decent races, with a two-length fourth in Listed class at Lingfield in her prep race for this. Moving down into handicap company off a mark of 101, 5lb lower than her peak, she has recently had wind surgery and if that brings her back to her best (and if she gets the sixth furlong which she should on pedigree), then I am hopeful she can run a huge race here at a massive price.    

5.35pm

One last handicap to deal with for the week when 16 are set to go to post for the mile and a quarter Golden Gates Stakes. Just the six runnings of this relatively new race but Andrew Balding has won it twice with both ridden by Oisin Murphy, and they team up with  Allegresse this year, a 40/1 chance who needs a huge step forward after being beaten 64 length last time out – though that was on soft ground and conditions will hopefully be very different here. Lightly raced he could run into a place but even I can’t make a strong case for him here, and will be looking elsewhere. Lost Boys heads the market after winning the London Gold Cup, but he has been put up 7lb for a head success and will clearly need to find further improvement, while Accredit was sorely tempting, with the Gosden’s seeing him as better than a handicapper last season – but switching here for his first start since winning at Haydock last October, a long enough absence to put me off, if only just. Harmonics is his stable companion in Newmarket, and after a distant (and unfancied) fifth on debut, he has gone from strength to strength. A half-length win over the Southwell mile was followed by his turf debut at Doncaster over this trip which he won by six lengths with ease, and a mark of 97 ahead of his handicap debut may, just may, underestimate the improving three-year-old.

6.10pm

And so one of the most intriguing and time consuming meetings of the year draws to an end with the marathon Queen Alexandra Stakes over close to two and three-quarter miles. Regularly won by trainers best associated with the National Hunt scene (Willie Mullins three times, Gordon Elliott twice, Joseph O’Brien twice and Alan King once) in the last 10 years, that run may well continue if the early betting is to be believed. Willie Mullins sends three this year, but all the money seems to have been for Le Destrier, and 2/1 in this field (as I write) suggests that he is a good thing – or the bookies are running scared. Formerly in the care of Alicja Karkosa in France for whom the son of Le Havre won five races in Poland, he moved to Ireland and ran his best race yet when third to Scandinavia in the Group Three Levmoss Stakes at Leopardstown, and a step forward of any kind from that would make him the one to beat. Much as I hate the price I cannot settle on an each way alternative that I can make a solid case for (Illinois is the highest rated but at 11/2 he doesn’t win often enough for my liking), though with no distance winners in the field let’s be honest, anything could happen!  

Sean’s Suggestion:

Catullus each way 4.20pm Royal Ascot