Summer is Sneaking Up At Last - A Welcome Back To The Flat Season

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

My last article before I head off to the Dubai World Cup where the weather is a touch warmer than here (great when wearing shorts, not so good when wearing a suit, collar, and tie come race day), but with the turf Flat season kicking off this weekend we can all dream of better weather and cold drinks on the racecourse – finances allowing these days, of course.

Before we get to the nitty gritty, congratulations are in order to Hollie Doyle, who rode her 1000th UK winner on board the appropriately named Handle With Care (she is renowned in betting circles for her ability to get the best out of a reluctant animal) at Lingfield, a mere 12 years after her first success which is a remarkable achievement. I do feel she has moved the pendulum considerably in proving that female jockeys can complete on level terms with their male counterparts, a view many have questioned over the years, and although we are yet to see as many new female jockeys as I had hoped, she has shown that if you are good enough, the rides will come. Add in a will to win and a willingness to ride anywhere in the World (and keep learning from her elders), and she clearly hasn’t finished just yet, and I am sure you will join me in wishing her all the best as she bids to add another 1000 to her tally. 

Something totally new to me hit my in-box this week as the BHA announced brand new “doping” tests – though this time we are not talking drugs; we are talking DNA – this could be beyond me in seconds. Although there is apparently no evidence this has happened in racing worldwide, (and I quote) Gene doping includes the use of genetic or cellular manipulation of the horse’s DNA, either directly via gene editing techniques or by the addition of genetic material into the cell by gene transfer, in an attempt to enhance athletic performance or aid recovery after exercise - phew! Now I can’t pretend I understand any of that, it’s all a bit science fiction to me, but it is good to see the BHA being proactive and meeting this head-on BEFORE it becomes the norm, sending out a message that this will not be tolerated – after all, many of us have wondered for years why no-one has every tried cloning the likes of Shergar or Frankel to almost guarantee yourself a superstar?

As many of you will know by now, I haven’t been a fan of ante-post betting since 1990. Early that year I had the pleasure of interviewing John Dunlop for the local paper, and we got talking about an unraced two-year-old filly who he clearly thought plenty of. So as soon as we wrapped up, off I headed to my local Ladbrokes to place a long term bet for the 1000 Guineas of 1991 – happy days. Remember, this is a horse who hasn’t even seen a racecourse yet, who has to prove her ability, stay fit and train on as a three-year-old, and then end up at Newmarket the following May. Armed with a £20 note, I asked for a price and got offered – 25/1 – not what I hoped for my any stretch, but I took it, and Shadayid became my last ante-post bet, albeit a good one (she won the 1000 Guineas at odds of 4/6 by a couple of lengths). Seriously though, if anyone thinks a price that small is good value (noting that the 1000 Guineas of 2025 has SEVEN unbeaten fillies priced bigger than that and the race is only six weeks or so away) then I suggest you seek help – for me, ante-post value is no value, and if I needed proof, Mr Aidan O’Brien just provided it! The Lion In Winter sat proudly at the head of the 2000 Guineas market over the winter after wins in a Curragh maiden and the Group Three Acomb Stakes at York but he may not make the contest according to his trainer (though never say never I suppose) saying “I don’t think he will be ready in time” while Lake Victoria, same stable and 1000 Guineas winter jolly, is slowly coming to hand after an extended break with Aidan saying “I’m not sure she’ll make the Guineas, but we’re training her for it” – not exactly what her ante-post supports will be wanting to hear! Yes, we do all know the risks of betting ante-post, and the difficult balance of bigger odds v losing your stake if they don’t make it to the race named, and for me, this merely enforces my willingness to leave early bets well alone!

Lastly, some idiot has asked me to put up one horse to follow for the 2025 turf Flat season, and who am I to let my supporters down? Unlike ante-post punts we only lose money when they run and gets beaten, but although others will come up with some handicapper, that will never be me – if it wins then fantastic, but after that, who knows what the handicapper will do to them and if they will win again? Nope, backs against the wall time and decisions have to be made, and I have come down on the side of Star Of Light, trained in Newmarket by the Gosdens. A daughter of Frankel, my all-time favourite horse, and out of a multiple Group One winning daughter of Sea The Stars, she made her debut at Wolverhampton on the all-weather last December in a mile and a quarter maiden worth all of £3,402 to the winner, sent off a 9/2 chance under apprentice jockey Luke Catton, and winning by a cosy half a length. She is bred for a mile and a half (Epsom Oaks anyone?), and looks to have any amount of improvement to come with the racing world breeding for speed and not stamina (with the exceptions of Japan and Germany), the staying division may be getting weaker, and here we have a guaranteed stayer in a top Newmarket yard who may sweep all before her.   

On to the racing – but with a podcast link here… https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2025/03/28/hollie-lincoln-profiling-and-one-to-follow-in-2025/

Saturday racing

1.15pm Doncaster

Somehow, I feel duty bound to start off with the first two-year-old race of the turf season, even though that means a contest where not one of the entries has ever seen a racecourse in public. It is a race I love trying to solve (with mixed success), and this year is no different with 17 runners over the Doncaster five furlongs and literally nothing to go on. Looking at the last 27 runnings (all my database has on it) and I do note we are yet to see a winner from stalls 1 4 6 8 or 12 (no logic to that but facts are facts) while trainer Bill Turner is the only handler with a runner this year who has taken this more than once (five times – pretty impressive). Add in the good record of stall two and 10 (five winners each) and my final shortlist based on guesswork leaves us with Kamakameleon (stall 2), Kanishka (stall 10), and The Boreham Bullet (Bill Turner), and with Billy Loughnane in the saddle, I am hoping we can hit a place at least with the 16/1 available as I write looking sorely tempting.

2.25pm Doncaster

Six furlongs for the Listed Cammidge Trophy won last year by Montassib for the William Haggas team, who are sadly unrepresented in 2025. Looking at the last decade (nine runnings) and no horse has been successful from a stall lower than the four box, while all came from the first six in the betting, giving me something to work with. Four year olds or older dominate, suggesting outsider Perfect Part has his work cut out, while all those victorious in the last decade have been rated over 100, suggesting we can also overlook Sophia’s Starlight. Of the six at the head of the early market, Al Shabab Storm is the one that catches my eye and at 8/1, he looks decent each way value. Rated 109 officially, that leaves him with a couple of pounds to find at these weights, but he has an advantage over some with a prep run when third at Wolverhampton earlier this month over seven furlongs under his belt. Caught for second late on that day, the drop back in trip could prove ideal and if he has improved at all for the race, he may be the one to be on.

3.00pm Doncaster

This may not a Guineas but it is a decent Listed race over a mile and one that has seen two winning favourites in the last three years, with Charyn scoring for Roger Varian last season before he went on to win three Group Ones before heading off for a new career at stud. After three winners of this in the last six years his runner this year would have been my go to if he had one, but sadly we are forced to look elsewhere and the lucky pin has come down on Botanical – who used to be in the Varian yard (next best thing, perhaps). We do have to take his race fitness on trust having not seen the son of Lope De Vega since last September when he was beaten a short head by Novus at Goodwood, but he has had a wind operation since joining George Boughey, and that makes him all the more interesting. Lightly raced for a five-year-old with just the nine career starts and three victories, this would be his first win in Listed class if he is successful under young Billy Loughnane, but there is still every chance there is more improvement to come.      

3.15pm Kempton

One on the all-weather from Kempton to cover today when up to 10 fillies are set to go to post over the mile for the Listed Snowdrop Stakes. None of the main protagonists if the early betting is to be believed arrive here after winning last time out, with the vast majority arriving with something to prove, which makes life all the more intriguing. Crimson Advocate has her second start for the Gosdens having competed at the highest level in America and over here for George Weaver when trained over the pond, with two wins at Gulfstream as well as the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2023, but they have all been over five furlongs – and she tries the unknown here stepping up to a mile. Soprano is officially the best filly here after places in the Matron Stakes (Leopardstown) and the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (Keeneland) before her tenth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Del Mar (all Group One), and she looks the likeliest winner, though no doubt she will be priced accordingly. If there is a dark horse here (and I am hoping there is), then I suspect trainer Ollie Sangster may provide it. Romanova has always been held in high regard and she could go well at a price, but it is the long-absent Shuwari who will be weighed down by my money. Four starts as a two-year-old saw her win at Newbury and Sandown before a pair of seconds, the first in the Group Two Rockfel Stakes and the second when beaten half a length by Aidan O’Brien’s Ylang Ylang in the Group One Fillies’ Mile, both at Newmarket. Admittedly the winner failed to train on and is yet to win another race, but the third is now rated 113, and you rarely see bad Group One form. This is “only” a Listed race so she is effectively plummeting in class, and in my view, we are backing the best horse in the hope that she is fit enough to do herself justice after 533 days off the track.      

3.35pm Doncaster

The Lincoln Handicap has long been seen as the first big betting race of the new Flat season and with up to 22 runners over the straight mile, it will be a cavalry charge where luck in running my well play a big part. Five-year-olds have the best recent winning record which is interesting with the first three in the market a year younger, but do not worry – I am not going down the exhaustive stats route on this occasion, as I believe that statistic is about to be broken! Word coming in from Newmarket has it that the connections of the Wathnan Racing owned Midnight Gun have him exactly where they want him and that this has been his early season target for some time. A son of Kingman out of Coronation Stakes winner Sky Lantern, she cost 375,000 Guineas as a yearling and although never quite living up to that price tag, he has won twice at Nottingham and Newmarket. Gelded since coming home second to Harper’s Fury over this course and distance last October, he is reported to have strengthened up since the ultimate operation, and with course experience and evidence he will handle the going, even the 6/1 may prove to be pretty decent value.

Sean’s Suggestion:

Al Shabab Storm each way 2.25pm Doncaster