They are Coming For Us AGAIN - Time To Stand Our Ground?

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

It’s a bit tricky even for someone like me who can talk for England to write too much about the racing when the vast majority is being abandoned thanks to the inclement weather, leaving me working on poor quality all-weather cards that really do not float my boat!

Looking for good news has become a thankless task (nothing new there I suppose) with the anti-gambling lobby now targeting advertising, which in turn puts the televised sport at risk. How they morally balance the 1% of those with genuine gambling harm issues (who need support) with the 99% who enjoy an affordable flutter when it suits them is beyond me (and in my mind, flies in the face of democracy too), but sine when has common sense ever bothered rabid campaigners? Meanwhile, those gambling avenues that seem to slip thought the net grow exponentially  (lotterys, win a house, scratchcards, charity draws, tombolas, bingo and so on) – do the so called experts really think a compulsive gambler is fixated on one sport and won’t simply change horses mid-race to lose their money elsewhere – apparently so. Racing needs to rally round once more while it seems more popular than it has been in recent years (record crowds at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day for example) for yet another fight with what felt like a “win” on gambling tax (time will tell on that one) seemingly just the start of the war. Meanwhile, black market bookmakers grow like Japanese knotweed, a far more dangerous option than the regulated market for us punters yet seemingly ignored by the “goody-goody” brigade.

Meanwhile,  racing is caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the aforementioned cancellations because of frost and snow. Like it or not, each track relies on making money from their limited fixtures to keep their heads above water, some more than others, so by definition, they only call it off if they really have to. This has led to a bit of a furore over some being called off at the last minutes, with horses, jockeys, connections and racegoers potentially all on their way to the track (Wolverhampton inspecting at 11.30am on Monday with their first race due off at 4.00pm which seems as far as they could be, but others left it far later with Wincanton Saturday abandoning at 11.38am on X with the first race due off at 12.27pm – less than an hour and with everyone who was going quite possibly already there.  It’s a question I don’t have the answer to - you can’t blame them for giving the meeting every chance to go ahead, but I also sympathise with those there or on their way – roll on the summer eh?

On to the racing …

Saturday racing

Kempton 12.20pm

An interesting race where I expect the Paul Nicholls trained Swingin Safari, the Twiston-Davies six-year-old Shabalko d’Herm, and Alan King’s Baron Noir to head the betting (with any luck) but I am going to take a risk on hurdling debutant Gambino to surprise them all. Formerly in the care of the legendary Noel Meade in Ireland, he won his maiden at Gowran Park before finishing second in a mile and a half handicap at the same track. Sold privately since to his new owners for a very different career, as a son of Churchill there is a decent chance his stamina will not give out, and with the winner of his second race placing in a Group Three at Leopardstown before winning in America, there is a chance he could be a pretty decent recruit to the winter game.

Kempton 1.30pm

Trainer Alan King has won two of the last seven runnings of this race which points in the direction of a good run from debut fifth King Al, but he needs to improve to win this and others are preferred for now. Wertpol looked to have more to offer despite winning first time out over the smaller obstacles after running green, and he may prove the biggest danger to the exciting Precious Man who could help make it a good afternoon for the Skelton team. Second at Auteuil first time out in March last year before a narrow win at the same track in May, he moved to his new stable in June and was thrown in at the deep end in the Grade Two Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle where he acquitted himself well to be beaten less that four lengths in second despite losing both front shoes. He may have made a noise that day and has had wind surgery since, and if he takes to the expected quicker ground this afternoon, he might be able to put his class to good use to come home in front.

Warwick 1.52pm

With what feels like the vast majority of first-season chasers being sent straight into handicaps, its good fun to see an old-fashioned novice chase on a Saturday afternoon.  Three miles awaits this field and for once I am abandoning Dan Skelton who runs Doyen Quest in the hope that The Jukebox Kid can bounce back to form at a bigger price. A winer over shorter at Cartmel, his jumping let him down when a disappointing fourth at Cheltenham but he won his point-to-point over this trip by 16 lengths on debut and I refuse to believe stamina is the issue.  If he jumps badly again our money will go down the river, but he is sure to have been extensively schooled at home by Ben Pauling since his last start, and at the forecast price, represents a little bit of value on a tricky card.

Kempton 2.40pm

How we end up with a field of four in a race worth £45,560 to the winner is beyond me, but we deal with what’s put in front of us and it is one of the more important races on the card. Edwardstone is an old favourite for many of us and wasn’t disgraced when second to Djelo in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon, but he won’t be improving at the age of 12, and hasn’t won a race since February 2024, and is also yet to win beyond two miles and a furlong, so sadly I have to pass him over. Kalif Du Berlais in best in at the weights albeit narrowly, and if he strips fitter after finishing fourth to Thistle ask at Exeter, then he looks the likelier winner. Already successful on three of his six starts over fences, he tiers this trip for the second time after jumping poorly before weakening at Sandown over two and a half miles last February, but one breeding he ought to stay this far, though it’s a race I will possibly watch as odds on for a horse with question marks is not for me.   

Kempton 3.17pm

The obligatory handicap to end our Saturday action, and although I dug through the stats looking for clues I came unstuck – no great surprise there with winners at 33/1 and 66/1 in the last four years I suppose! What we do know is no horse has won this rated higher than 145 on the last 15 runnings, which suggests early favourite French Ship is up against it, while only two have been officially rated below 128, so I am willing to roll with that along with only one winner who had not raced within the last 60 days, and one who had raced in the last 15 days and we lose 12 more to give me a shortlist of four. Trainer Nicky Henderson has run 23 in this race in the 15 years researched, winning with three and placing with four others, suggesting Iberico Lord is massively overpriced at 25/1 as I write.  Admittedly the horse is a fully exposed eight-year-0old, who was last seen finishing ninth at Cheltenham (and beaten 20 lengths), but he is a course winner and is worth another try at this sort of trip. He races off a mark of 136 and has won off 8lb higher (admittedly over fences) and off only 2lb lower over hurdles, and the early betting could be pretty informative about his chances with owner J P McManus not adverse to a tilt at the betting ring when he thinks his horse has an opportunity.

Sean’s selection:

Precious Man 1.30pm Kempton