Two More Classics But Have I Found The Winners?

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

I have been busy once more and added to a bad case of man-flu (no laughing), I have reduced the chit chat and increased the races covered as that exhausts my tiny brain a fraction less.

Looking at the weeks news and we have seen stable staff being charged £1.50 for a bottle of water in the staff canteen at Leicester (shame on you), a jockey accused of jumping off a horse at Wexford to let the favourite win (no comment – I have never been a jockey), and more and more reports coming in of bookmakers restricting accounts to pennies or closing them entirely. I tried getting a £10 each way bet on a 25/1 chance with William Hill and got knocked back to £4.80 instead – does anyone reading this seriously think that is acceptable or see it as a “big bet” – because I don’t?

Has the time come for punters to rise up and refuse to be treated like something the corporate bookmakers have stepped in – and should they HAVE to take a bet of a sensible size as part of the terms for them to keep their licence?

I don’t play the slots, but I am quietly confident that if I tried to put my £20 in to Fishing Frenzy or whatever, where I could (in theory) win a lot more, they would not have stopped me – and that tells me everything I need to know – they can say what they want about protecting gamblers but the reality is, they only want losers (the horse didn’t run in the end by the way), and if that is deemed as acceptable practice, then the Gambling Commission and others need to hang their heads in shame.. 

On to the racing this weekend…

Friday

Epsom 2.05pm

If there had been eight runners in the Coronation Stakes then I would be backing

Ancient Wisdom each way as I think the 25/1 is way too big, but as we won’t get paid out on the top three, I will reluctantly give it a swerve. The one each way bet earlier on the card I do like is Richard Hannon’s Norman’s Cay, 8/1 as I write for the Woodcote Stakes. He looked pretty green on his debut at Doncaster where he got up in the shadow of the post to score by a nose, landing the bets of those who sent the son of Sioux Nation off the 3/1 favourite. The key to me here is the step up to a sixth furlong which seems sure to suit, plus the education of that experience ,and although Maximizing is a worthy favourite, I’d be surprised if we don’t land a place at the very least.

Epsom 4.00pm

The Oaks is the next Classic of the 2025 seqson as youb all know, and it wil be interesting to see what the O’Brien tactics will be – I assume they will try to draw the finishing speed out of Desert Flower, but a strong early pace may give her an even better chance to find cover settle to get the trip. On breeding, her stamina has to be in question as a daughter of Night Of Thunder out of a Hard Spun mare, but jockey Willam Buick is pretty adamant she is a mile and a quarter horse who can be coaxed round here. Unbeaten after five starts, the fact that she won the Fillies Mile at Newmarket by over five lengths as a two-year-old suggests to me the 1000 Guineas winner is not all speed, and if she is as good as they think she is, she can win this and secure her place in racing history.   

Saturday

Epsom 1.00pm

Bermuda Longtail is hard to oppose here thanks to the weight she received from her older rivals. Andrew Baldin’s daughter of Hello Youmzain is officially rated 8lb inferior to Royal Dress, but she gets 12lb weight for age and that ought to swing things in he favour. Better still, she was notably weak in the market on her return (sent off 16/1), suggesting she was not 100% on the day, but she still managed to run on to be beaten half a length at the line, and if she improves at all as hoped, then she ought to be the one to beat.

Epsom 1.35pm

Four-year-olds have a good record in this, winning five of the last 10 runnings, and that makes me want to side with Richard Hannon’s Persica, the mount of Ryan Moore, in my opinion the best jockey currently riding in the UK. A winer at this level (Group Three) with ease at Newmarket in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes in April, and further rain seems likely to help his case (that was on good to soft), and although he was last of eight in the Lockinge at Newbury, he raced too freely that day, and was up against far stronger opposition. Reunited with his Newmarket jockey and dropped in class I think he can get back to winning ways here, with Docklands the obvious danger.

Musselburgh 3.10pm

I am quite sweet on the chances of Irish raider Fiery Lucy here, another three-year-old getting lumps of weight from her older rivals. Trained by Gavin Cromwell who is a handler I have a lot of time for, she was last seen coming home second, four lengths behind Vera’s Secret in a Group Three at Leopardstown on her first start of the season, and dropping in class this afternoon on her second start of the season with a fourth in the Grade One Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filles Turf last November, there is every chance she can prove far too good for these.

Epsom 3.30pm

Whatever anyone tells you from elsewhere in the World this is not the Epsom Derby – this is THE Derby, the original, the best, and historically the most important. Nineteen runners mean we may have to deal with luck in running but I refuse to take too much notice of the draw – it’s not five furlongs, it’s a mile and a half and if you are good enough, then you can win regardless. The powerhouses of Ballydoyle (Delacroix, The Lion In Winter, and Lambourn) and Godolphin (2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court, and Tornado Alert) are expected to dominate, but at 20/1 I will be backing Midak each way even if it is more of a fun bet. Francis-Henri Graffard has his horses going well at home in France,  with a 23% strike rate in the last two weeks and although the Aga Kahn Stud owned colt runs in the race named after his much-missed owner, there was no pressure to supplement him for that reason. Unbeaten after wins at Lyon-La Soie, Chantilly, And Saint-Cloud, with two of those over 11 furlongs, he appears to have less stamina questions to answer than may here, and is improving with every start. Of course this is a big ask, but his trainer thinks track and trip are fine, and if he was trained in the UK he would never be sent off at that sort of price.       

Sean’s Suggestion:

Midak Each Way 3.30pm Epsom Saturday