Unquestioned Winners and Unnanswered Questions - Some Week

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN (apart from the podcast here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSeulkngnYM&feature=youtu.be which includes my good friend Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame).

Some interesting stuff to mull over this week (I would say that), starting in Ireland when someone landed a massive gamble on Crecora Hills who won a novice chase at Naas in the colours of the legendary J P McManus. Her previous form made it a bit of a surprise (clearly not to everybody) that the six-year-old mare headed the betting as she had failed to bother the judge in her previous four starts over the larger obstacles, finishing seventh in all of them, and at odds of 100/1, 12/1, 66/1, and 12/1 again, beaten 52 lengths, 74 lengths, 17 lengths and 12 lengths. She was stepping up in trip and had won over hurdles over a similar distance, but other than that, this was a much improved effort. Horses do get better, the penny can drop, a new training regime or different feed can all make a difference, and she was reunited with Mark Walsh (who won on her here over the smaller obstacles), so with 20/20 hindsight there were a few clues, but I was interested (as I would be in the UK), to read what questions the Stewards may have asked, and I can’t see a thing! The race is covered with Park The Giant reported to have finished slightly lame after stopping quickly before making a mistake at the last – but nothing of the monster gamble as the mare was backed down to 6/5 at the off, and that seems like a slap in the face to punters both at home and in the UK who would not have expected that the night before the race when working out their bets, and would likely have ignored her on her racecourse form.   

Next up we have the thorny issue of walkovers – too many recently and too often for my liking, and a cause of consternation for those who paid to get into the races to find one race doesn’t take place. When One Big Bang was declared a non-runner at Kempton at Kempton on Monday afternoon, the JCB “Chasing Excellence” Beginners Chase became the third walkover in a five day period, presumably costing the racecourse the prize money – as a sponsor I wouldn’t want to be paying out when there wasn’t a race run carrying my name, would you? In this case it was down to a vet’s certificate, but usually it’s the going, and to be fair, what can the courses do about an unusually dry Autumn? My only real issue is not the last minute non-runners (no one messes with Mother Nature), but the fact only two were declared in the first place – is it all down to the weather, or is there a lack of horses to compete in such races? As long as the BHA are busy canvassing owners and trainers to gauge the truth, then hopefully this is little more than a blip until the winter arrives,  and we will see bigger fields which in turn boosts betting turnover (and the levy), but if the changes in the weather are a long-term issue, then something more needs to be done – though I am confident that the BHA are looking into it and will find a long-term solution.

As you may remember, ante-post betting is not a game I play, and that goes all the way back to 1990 when I asked for a price for a horse to win the 1991 1000 Guineas. Considering the horse was an unraced two-year-old at the time, the 25/1 I was offered by Ladbrokes seemed derisory in the extreme and I did not avail myself of the £10 I had in my pocket – and you guessed it, her name was Shadayid and she duly won her first five races including the 1000 Guineas at odds of 4/6! This week we witnessed Huntingdon bumper winner Mydaddypaddy score by an easy and I admit impressive four and a half lengths on his hurdling debut at Carlisle – after which he was installed 7/1 favourite for the Supreme at Cheltenham next March.  With no disrespect to the track, who can name the last Carlisle winner to go on and score at the Cheltenham Festival (I can’t), and 7/1 seems a ludicrous overreaction. When you consider the Irish have won the last three runnings, and nine of the last 13, with Willie Mullins responsible for six of them, punctuated by the likes of Altior, Shishkin and Constitution Hill (Nicky Henderson) then you can hopefully see that the price is not worth taking (in my view - famous last words) with other stables yet to play their hands ahead of the big meeting, and the risk that the son of Walk In The Park gets beaten later in the season – or worse still, fails to make the line-up with your stake money down the drain.

Lastly, a horrendous story broke in The Guardian this week alleging a well-known (but unnamed) bookmaker accidentally sent documents that implied they were also running a back market operation – and pushing their bigger staking customers there to avoid affordability checks. If this is true (and we will hopefully find out over time), then the exchequer is being deprived of the appropriate taxes while the punters have no legal protection from an unlicenced bookmaker, but what concerns me most is, are they the only ones?  With all due respect to the Gambling Commission, it would be fair of me to suggest the bookmakers have the bigger resources to call upon when needed and if they set up new entities abroad, when finding company owners is a lot more difficult, who would be able to find out – worrying times indeed. If ever a case needed to be made for a betting Ombudsman with teeth (not just to rule on the odd bookmaker breach regarding affordability checks etc), this could be it – IF it is proved (watch this space as they say) then this is just more evidence that bookmakers have to be policed in far more depth and detail - as things stand they ride roughshod over their customers without ever seeming to be held to account.

On to the racing…..

Saturday racing

Uttoxeter 12.42pm

Strange to start with a maiden hurdle but in a week of small fields we had 21 declared at the early stage – though that has now dropped down to just nine at the 48 hour stage. Two and a half miles may prove too far for some of those who look Flat bred, but that remark hopefully does not apply to Queenofthejukebox, a daughter of Jukebox Jury out of a Showcasing mare, pedigree that has stamina through and through. Trained by Noel Williams, she has won two of her four bumpers, unsurprisingly staying on well over the two miles, but makes her debuts over hurdles here upped to a trip that ought to suit. Her jumping must be taken on trust for now as I am not privy to her home schooling, but the booking of Brendan Powell to ride catches the eye and I can see her taking this maiden hurdle with ease.

Wetherby 12.50pm

Who doesn’t love a novice hurdle with the combination of speed, potential improvement, and the odds jumping error, and in a race won by the jolly for the last two years, and with no winners priced bigger than 13/2 in the last 10 years, the head of the markets looks the place to start. Dan Skelton won this in 2023 with the odds-on Heltenham and in 2016 with 6/1 chance Some Invitation so he should have a good idea of the type needed, and after having four entries at the early stage, he has decided to rely on Sheezer Diva, and I am hoping that is a hint in itself. I cannot pretend I was overly impressed with her debut third where she was left out the back before running on late to be beaten 17 lengths at the line, and I doubt she is any stable star to put it politely, and she isn’t even mentioned in his recent stable tours, but I am hoping the step up in trip today and a far more positive ride from Charlie Todd could see her make the most of the 6lb or more she receives from all her rivals with a top-three finish.

Cheltenham 2.20pm

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is, for many, the first big race of the new National Hunt season and we have seen winners at prices from as short as 4/1 all the way up to 25/1 in the last 15 years, my “go to” timescale for such things. Making notes (dull, I appreciate) and 13 of the 14 who finished on their previous start came home in the first six, none who pulled up or unseated on their last start went on to win this, all were aged nine or younger (14 were aged six to nine), 14 were officially rated 137 or above, and 14 were rated 156 or lower. None had raced in the last seven days, and 14 had raced once or not at all this season. Add those together and we get to a shortlist of seven – not ideal, but a promising start. Of those seven, Paul Nicholls has won this four times and placed with another seven, meaning it is hard to ignore Il Ridoto, and when you look at their current marks, he has won off just 1lb lower than he is shouldered with here. The winner here last year off a rating of 141 he is running off 142 now, he has the benefit of a recent run when second at Chepstow unlike some of his rivals, and looks fairly solid each way value at 6/1 – with 33/1 shot Riskintheground my pick for those who fancy a punt on an outsider – he is due to go up 3lb for future races, arrives after winning last time out, and has the added benefit of jockey Tristan Durrell claiming 3lb off his back.

Uttoxeter 2.27pm

Another novice hurdle but this time we drop back to two miles with the only outstanding statistics I can see being nine of the last 10 winners were priced at 6/1 or shorter – and more importantly, that Dan Skelton has won three of the last 10 runnings, and Olly Murphy two, though as they run one and FOUR respectively, that tells me very little. I am going to look elsewhere and the Harry Derham trained Jasmine d’Airy gets the vote. A bumper winner at Tipperary for her previous connections, she took a while to get the hang of this hurdling malarkey, improving all the time with second places at Musselburgh and Ffos Las before running away with her maiden at Plumpton by 24 lengths last time out after being allowed to bowl along at the head of affairs. She faces a different challenge here against better opposition who will know in advance her likely tactics and is up against race-fit opposition having not been seen since April, but her trainer has been rattling up plenty of winners in recent weeks and is more than capable of getting her fit enough for her return.

Wetherby 3.10pm

Precious little to go on here after just the seven runnings with seven different trainers and seven different jockeys responsible for the winner – ouch! Fresh Perspective impressed when winning by eight lengths at Fontwell on his return to the fray last month after winning a point-to-point and a bumper last year, and I can certainly see why he heads the early betting, but I am going to oppose him with Cueros on this occasion. Trained by the in-form Harry Derham who could be set for a good day, the son of Territories won seven races on the Flat, one at Listowel and the others at Les Landes in Jersey before his hurdling debut for new connections where he won by 14 lengths at Newcastle. He did look a difficult ride that day, running in snatches and hitting a flat spot, but he got the job done and can hopefully improve for the experience. Interestingly, top Irish amateur Patrick Mullins takes the ride, his only mount of the day, and as he is nobody’s fool I am thinking he believes he is on the winner, if not why make the journey?