When Is The Going Not The Going, A YouTube Link, and More!

All Thoughts Are My Own.

The good news (possibly) is that I am back on the Post Racing podcast this week, now available on YopuTube here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPlM6xN5bdo&feature=youtu.be, (frightening stuff), where all the subjects listed below will be discussed with Ron Robinson, so you get an alternative view and not just mine for a change!

First up we have Chepstow last weekend and the big question over whether or not they have a hosepipe ban? Seriously though, it looked the best National Hunt card so far this season with some decent races and classy competitors – before a total of 23 non-runners on Saturday, mostly for unsuitable ground changed the complexion of most races leaving us punters scratching our heads or rapidly rewriting our bets. Now I do appreciate Mother Nature is a law unto herself, but as far as I can see there was no rain expected in the days before the meeting, yet somehow it went off with Good ground on the hurdles course and Good to Firm over fences, so the question has to be asked – why didn’t they pile sufficient water on well in advance? Once again it feels to me as if the end customers, those of us helping to fund the sport via our bets, are being taken for fools, with those of us who like to think we are clever enough to occasionally work out how a race might be run left licking our wounds. Spending hours looking through a race to find the front runners and those likely to be closing in late on knew their fate well in advance with the pace setters sometimes pulled out, and it does make you wonder exactly where the sport we all love is heading – more power to punters is my rallying call, many of us have had enough of being taken for granted time and again.

AI is next on my list (again) and although my fears its “expertise” may make punting obsolete in the long -term remain, it was interesting to see that Japanese trainers (always ahead of the game) have been using it to crunch data to find better ways to train, race, and look after the horse in the best possible way. Luddite as I am, even I can see the benefits of its use in that way, and although currently only used in Japan, it is only a matter of time before someone (my guess would be Godolphin or Coolmore) get on board once they see it works. It is also being tried ion the breeding industry to annotate potential purchases with some success (though I doubt they list the failures), and I will be watching that with interest – when you consider triple Grand National winner Red Rum had his first race in an Aintree sprint over five furlongs and went on to win over  four miles two and a half furlongs with fences in the most famous race in the World I need some convincing that AI or anything else will ever become the go to when it comes to flesh, blood, and genetics.

Lastly, my podcast buddy wants to discuss Project Beacon and the newly announced Dragons Den style Future Of Racing Summit which is inviting ideas to attract people to the sport. I am old school as in anyone trying to do something to invigorate our sport gets my support, and as a child I loved my Mum’s poster of “half of being smart is knowing what you’re dumb at” and it does (finally) appear to me that racing is at least looking at a revamp.

Acknowledging the issues that need to be solved to encourage new fans to the sport is a big and important first step, with horse welfare top of the list and demystifying the sport (it is another language, let’s be honest), and emotional connection also up there to work on. Other countries do it better, fact – in Japan and Hong Kong the competitors and jockeys take centre stage, they become the stars that the public want to see – but is our racing programme even set up accordingly? When horses can earn considerably more money at stud than they can on the track we have an issue as some (not all) have the shortest of careers before being rushed off for breeding purposes, where as Hong Kong superstar  Ka Ying Rising, who I think will win the Everest in Australia Saturday morning, is a gelding and raced 10 times in 2024, and five times already this year, giving him the chance to build up a fan base. More importantly he will stay in training as long as his health allows and he can compete at the highest level, meaning that God willing we can expect to see him next year and beyond. Not my place, but if I was in charge to the world as well as free beer I would have a tapering off tax system for horses heading to stud, with a higher number for those retiring at three then lower at four and so on in an attempt to get them on the course more often to build a bigger following.

As for the new Dragons Den idea, that only landed on my desk Wednesday morning, so it’s hot off the press. Taking place in February next year at York racecourse and put together by the BHA and Flutter, they are inviting people to come forward with ideas to build on the information gathered by Project Beacon across four key areas, namely Equine Welfare, Education, Raceday Experience, and Behind The Silks. Obviously at this stage we have no idea what will be pitched (and best of luck to all those getting involved), but I genuinely see this as a potential leap forward. Racing has long been seen as failing to obtain any ideas from outside of their own inner circle, and this concept certainly breaks that mould, and I for one will be very interested to see what they come up with – and more importantly, what actually gets acted on and with what budgets. 

On to the racing…..

Saturday

Ascot 12.55pm

Champions Day may actually race on Good or faster ground for a change, and that makes me a lot more interested as I was getting bored with watching tired horses slogging it out on a surface that didn’t suit after a long hard season for some, and we start off with the two-mile Long Distance Cup, won by the brilliant Kyprios last season. Just the six runners this year, with Trawlerman seemingly scaring off the opposition and all set to go off a very short priced favourite. The winner of his last three starts with a length and a quarter success in the Group Two Lonsdale Cup at York when last seen in August, he took the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot in June and is impossible to oppose, but at his prohibitive odds I mention him because of the class of the race – but won’t be betting on him personally at that price.

Ascot 2.05pm

From the stamina sapping two miles of the opener to a far faster six furlongs for the Sprint Stakes but a real “punter beware” contest with winners at odds of 40/1 in 2023 and 33/1 in 2019, and only one successful favourite since 2016. The draw seems no excuse here with scorers from as low as the one stall and as high as the 17 stall with a pretty even spread in the last 15 years. What we do know is this usually goes to a six-year-old or younger, but with the favourite as big as 4/1 as I write, this is not as easy to solve as some might think. Lazzat heads the market and is the highest rated in this line-up by 2lb at these weights, but I felt he ran a bit flat at Haydock last month and he will need to be at his best to see off these. Next in the betting we have Big Mojo, who was over two lengths ahead of the jolly at Haydock and meets his old rival on 1lb worse terms meaning he has to have a big shout, but at the current odds I am willing to give Kind Of Blue another chance, each way of course. Although behind Big Mojo in second last time out he was hampered that day and can be marked up for that run, won this race last year as a three-year-old, and although Lazzat is clearly the number one pick of owners Wathnan Racing, the horse won’t know that and he could surprise them all.

Ascot 2.45pm

The Champion Fillies and Mares has been won by some household names over the years with the likes of Wonderful Tonight and Emily Upjohn on the list, and with the Gosdens training three of the last 10 winners and Aidan O’Brien two, we can expect a competitive race. The Gosdens have entered Danielle but the betting suggests that the Park Hill Stakes fourth has it all to do, though she is lightly raced and she may have more to offer back at the mile and a half, while Ballydoyle rely on Bedtime Story and Ballet Slippers, with the first named an easy winner of the Chesham Stakes here last year, but yet to win this season. Kalpana heads the markets after her Arc seventh but I am willing to take her on with a filly who was two places behind her in Paris. Quisisana travels over from France for Francis-Henri Graffard and won her first three races this season, stepping up to take the Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville in August to win her first Group One. The ground went against her for the Arc when she pulled too hard and then couldn’t quicken when asked to, and she does have three lengths to find with the Balding filly here, but better ground will hopefully see her in a different light and at 10/1 or thereabouts I can’t resist. 

Ascot 3.25pm

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes looks a race to savour at first glance, with the likes of 2024 top two-year-old Lion In Winter looking to get back to his best, the unlucky Rosallion hoping to put a season of placed efforts at the highest level behind him, and Field Of Gold planning to prove his last run when only fourth at Goodwood was merely a blip. I am inclined to forgive him that run and prefer to look back (through rose tinted glasses) at his impressive wins in the Irish 2000 Guineas and the St James’s Palace Stakes where he was mentioned as the next big thing. John and Thady Gosden have resisted the urge to send him back to the track too quickly and over two months off will see him fresh and ready to run this afternoon. Colin Keane is back in the saddle and knows the horse well, and if he is the horse he was earlier the year, then he looks by far the likeliest winner, with the tough as teak filly Fallen Angel a tentative suggestion for the forecast.

Ascot 4.05pm

The finale of the Group One’s at Ascot is the mile and a quarter Champion Stakes and at the early declaration stage we have perhaps one of the races of the season, with some top-class contenders plus some improvers looking to spring a surprise.  Ombudsman would be the obvious pick after he won the Juddmonte International at York in August where he easily accounted for Delacroix who is back for another go having beaten the jolly at Sandown in July, while the French send Calandagan over after he won the King George here in July, and if the market is to be believed, it is all about those three. Tactics will be fascinating here with both of the market leaders having pacemakers in the field, but I am a glutton for punishment and at 16/1 or so I can’t resist Economics. Last season he was the one being called the next superstar after wins in the Dante Stakes at York,  the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville, and the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown before the bubble burst in this race when he finished sixth, and was found to be bleeding from the nose afterwards. Wrapped up in cotton wool since then, he has been working well on the home gallops and had a racecourse gallop at Newmarket earlier in the month, and although it is a huge ask to expect victory after a year off, I am hoping Calandagan might find this trip on the sharp side in which case he could hit a top three place at a massive price.     

Newton Abbot 4.55pm

One of those races where I feel the need to profile the contest, looking at other runnings to see if any kind of pattern emerges. Looking at the last nine runnings (it was abandoned last year and in 2019, and only started in 2014), and the following jump off the page (pun intended). No winners priced bigger than 8/1, and eight of the nine winners returned at 100/30 or shorter. All winners were aged six or seven, all finished in the first five on their previous start or failed to finish with six finishing first or second, all were rated between 140 and 156, eight were rated between 148 and 156, none raced in the last 31 days, and eight had not run in the last 121 days. Using those to deal with the embarrassingly small field and we end up with the Paul Nicholls trained Blueking d’Oroux The master of Ditcheat has won this five times from 11 entries and placed with one other, a record no other trainer can get anywhere near, whether they have a runner here or not, and as the horse is officially 22lb best in at these weights and has always been seen as a chaser in the making despite five wins over hurdles, he ought to win this – though it would be a miracle were he at a price worth betting on.

Sean’s suggestion:

Field Of Gold 3.25pm Ascot