When Is The Going Not The Going - The Confessions Of A Clerk of The Course

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

As I write I am awaiting a reply from the BHA regarding a YouTube video recorded by the Bar Stewards at Thirsk (link here https://x.com/barstewardsthe/status/1911729332168409096?s=12&t=ERYQID_jIu8mTBUWnAFnrA) in the vain hope that someone misjudged when April Fools’ Day was this year – but I won’t hold my breath.

I am fully aware that every punter looks at a race differently, but to the best of my knowledge, the going remains an integral part – what punter worth their salt goes through their form study and doesn’t at least look to see if the horse will handle the ground as described? Personally, I see it as vitally important – a winner on heavy ground is not guaranteed to handle Good to Firm and vice versa, but are we all being sold short? Thirsk Clerk of the Course James Sanderson can be heard, almost gleefully, admitting to massaging the going stick readings as he sees fit – and he is clearly not a fan of going stick readings (only three\ from 15 published in 2024 despite a BHA directive that they MUST be given), and that may be fair enough – but surely it is a case of one or the other – either EVERY course uses the going stick, or nobody does, not the Mickey Mouse (with apologies to Walt Disney) set-up that is seemingly in place. Not wanting to use the stick is one thing, but admitting to changing it is another, though I will now leave you to draw your own conclusions as my blood pressure is already high enough thank you very much!

My only other subject outside of the actual racing this week (which is very poor for a Saturday, by the way) revolves around the new Flat season on the turf and a warning – bet sensibly! We have all been caught out by the three-year-old contests where we are basically second guessing who has or has not trained on or improved/matured over the winter, and with a 33/1 winner in the Fred Darling on Saturday and plenty of other shock results, we all need to be wary of what may or may not happen.  Waiting for the form to settle down isn’t an easy thing to do (I love trying my luck in the early season contests but lower my stakes accordingly), but it is the sensible thing to do as we wait for the top stables to show their hands after basically sending out sighters this early in the year. Even the legendary Aidan O’Brien is struggling by his lofty standards with a lowly 14% strike rate as I write and plenty of beaten favourites, and if Ballydoyle don’t know the time of day, what hope for the rest of us?

On to the racing this Saturday…

Haydock 2.40pm

Burrows Hall has done nothing but improve recently with three wins on the bounce, but an added 5lb from the handicapper for a half-length win at Doncaster looks harsh and at 3/1 as I write, he can run without the added burden of any of my money on his back. An Taillhiur looks interesting at a double figure price to very small stakes with seven wins over hurdles to his name – all of them on the Good ground he is set to face here (hopefully). His last win was over course and distance back in 2023 so he is clearly no good thing, but he has scored or run well off marks higher than today’s and is certainly heading down the handicap towards a winning mark.

Musselburgh 3.00pm

I had hoped for a dig into the statistics for the Spring Cup but nothing really jumps off the page with all ages and all odds up for the challenge. What I did note is that David Barron has won it twice and placed on four other occasions (from 19 runners) for a 32% strike rate for the places, and with Jer Bat coming out of the five stall for new training team, David and Nicola Barron(no real change there), I can see why he has been backed from 7/1 to 9/2 since the early prices came out. The winner of only three of his 18 starts (not overly encouraging), he was last seen being beaten a head by Cover Up at Doncaster when caught close home, but the winner has scored or run well in Listed and Group Three class since, and if he is fit enough to do himself justice after over five months off (and the market suggests he is), then he should go well with a clear run this afternoon.

Haydock 3.15pm 

Time for the old boys to have their moment in the spotlight with this Veterans’ Chase over two and a half miles for horses aged 10 or older. Numitor arrives in great form after wins at here and at Wincanton and Ascot this season the latest by over three lengths over further last month, but he needs a career best to win off his new mark and as an 11-year-old, that appears a big ask. He can still go well and he did finish five lengths ahead of Dubai Days in March last year, but he meets that rival on 8lb worse terms which makes life interesting. My suggestion has only run twice this season which I see as a positive (some of these will have had enough by now), winning by a length and a quarter over course and distance in February and far from disgraced when a length and three-quarter second to favourite Credo at Carlisle off this mark. Interestingly, the winner has gone up 3lb suggesting my tip is potentially well-handicapped, though he does still need a career best to come home in front.   

Musselburgh 3.35pm

Punters beware here, with just the eight runnings seeing a 4/1 winner in 2019 – and the others priced at 12/1, 16/1, 12/1, 10/1, 13/2, 11/1, and 9/1 last year. Interestingly, all of the winners who completed on their previous start had come home in the first eight, and that fact alone puts a line through a surprising five of the 14 runner field. Next up I noted that all the winners were aged seven or younger (bye-bye to three more if those statistics hold up), while all came from the first eight in the betting (one more quietly ruled out but do note, I have to use early odds)). All eight were making their debut for the season which theoretically rules out another one, while we are yet to see a winner officially rated higher than 102 (one more written off) leaving us with a shortlist of three – not a bad start at all (Wild Waves, La Pulga, and Struth for those interested). Two of those are trained by Charlie Johnston whose father Mark has won this twice, and of that pairing (La Pulga and Struth) the first named is the each-way pick as a distance winner at Salisbury who has won on Good going before and has the invaluable assistance of Jason Hart in the saddle.

Sean’s Suggestion:

Dubai Days each way 3.15pm Haydock