A Good Newcomer, Expensive Purchases, And Some Winners For Saturday
ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN
(except those of Ron Robinson with me here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2J_9rawBwc on the podcast)
Some unusual subjects on the list this week, starting with the debut of Joseph O’Brien’s Monogram at the Curragh last Saturday. Sent off odds on (4/6) and winning by a short head you may ask why I even bother mentioning the son of Kingman – search for the replay (1.05pm the Curragh Saturday 22nd August 2026), it was some performance. Starting slowly and racing in last place, he started a move of sorts at the two pole and quickened up in incredible fashion under hands and heels with a supremely confident ride by Dylan Brown McMonagle, and I get the feeling we just witnessed the debut of a top class colt who may well head to Group races fairly shortly (currently as short as 6/1 for the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket in October.
Talking of easy winners, how good was the Wesley Ward trained Bacio in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York? I was worried the cut in the ground would blunt his speed but what do I know, with the son of Maclean’s Music blazing a trail and never seeing another horse before a length and a quarter success. He barely broke a sweat before clocking a time of 59.42 for the five furlongs (not particularly fast to be fair), but I am really hoping he does a world tour as I would love to see him take on Ka Ying Rising – either in the Everest or in Hong Kong, I don’t care. What we all noticed post-race was trainer Ralph Beckett asking (quite rightly) how the Ward colt got into the Holyrood House Handicap at Royal Ascot off a mark of 100 when he had now beaten the 112 rated America Affair by over five lengths? The suggestion that American horses need to run in a handicap here before Ascot was mooted (watch this space), but I think more realistically a long conversation with the American handicappers should follow – did he just improve considerably or were we given “duff” information?
Next up we have a subject close to my heart, and the fact that Denise Coates, owner of Bet365 has just put Push The Limit, a 580,000gns purchase at the Autumn Horses In Training sale, in training with Dan Skelton for his hurdling campaign. Now I know I am in the minority here, and a bit of a conspiracy theorist when it comes to betting, but should ANY bookmaker be allowed to own a racehorse in training – I think not. In a dark world (I am not suggesting this takes place, merely that it could), does this not give them an unfair advantage? IF they know the horses isn’t fit, or can’t jump a twig, what is to stop any bookie offering a slightly bigger price to get all the bets on their horse, effectively knowing full well it can’t win? That probably won’t happen, but the fact that it could is not a good look for a sport under attack from every angle.
Lastly, I am/was a huge fan of Constitution Hill, but even I am getting a bit bored with it now. There was hope that he would make a Listed race at Windsor this weekend but the dry spell continues, which is no great surprise for August really. If I owned him I would retire him to be honest but if they intend on racing him then they need to plan a campaign on the all-weather, or (depending on how good he really is) look for races on Champions Day at Ascot (invariably soft ground) or in France – he was never going to get the ground he needs on the Flat over here and I am genuinely surprised connections didn’t wake up to that concept a long time ago.
On to the racing…
Saturday Racing
2.15pm Sandown
I do enjoy (?) looking at one handicap each week when the opportunity arises and going though the stats – sometimes it works, more often than not it doesn’t – but those that do are usually at a decent price. In no particular order, and only looking at the last 15 years and 16 winners, I have noted that: only one winner was priced at bigger than 16/1, all were aged five or younger, 15 came from the first nine in the betting at the off, 15 were officially rated 85 or higher, all were rated 103 or lower, 14 had run in the last 60 days, all had raced at least twice this season (but no more than seven times), none had raced in the last seven days, and finally (if needed as a tie-breaker), 12 finished in the first six on their previous start. Using all those (except the last one) using early prices to get a shortlist and I end up with Kokbastau, Alcarath, Tribal Chief, Gonna Fly and Stem so I have been forced to use my final question (top six last time out) which gets me down to two – Kokbastau and Alcarath. I may back the two if the prices are right, but if I had to go for one then Roger Varian has won it before in the timescale mentioned and Alan King hasn’t, so the improving Kokbastau it is!
2.50pm Sandown
An interesting Group Three over a mile where I only have one question I need to answer – how far can the currently unbeaten Secret Of Life go? So far, a two length maiden win has been followed by a three length novice win and a three length Listed win (at Sandown), making all last time out but equally as happy being ridden from off the pace. If she gets the good ground predicted today that will suit her even better as she looked ill at ease on the quicker surface, and for the moment the sky is the limit. On paper she has 9lb to find with Sir Mark Prescott’s Prix Rothschild third Moon Target(beaten by Blue Bolt and Precise which is top-drawer form), and for that reason that is where my money will go. She looks a little short of the very top grade unfortunately, but has acquitted herself well in Group One company, and the two class drop will see some disappointed connections if she fails to win this, possibly from the front if she gets a smart start.
3.10pm Goodwood
There is a distinct lack of recent winning form for a Group Two ahead of the Summer Mile from Goodwood with not one of the nine runners winning last time out. Three year olds have made the most of their weight concession from the older horses winning the last two runnings and I think they will make it three in a row if Zavateri runs to form after competing last weekend. Eve Johnson Houghton trains the son of Without Parole who was beaten just over four lengths by Notable Speech in the Group One City Of York Stakes last Saturday, and he was the same distance behind Bow Echo here in the Sussex Stakes last month. Add a Group One National Stakes victory over 2000 Guineas runner-up Gstaad as a two-year-old and he clearly has plenty of ability, and if his latest run hasn’t taken too much out of him this ought to be his to lose.
3.30pm Sandown
The Solario Stakes at 3.30pm from Sandown is invariably a decent test of a juvenile, with Too Darn Hot winning this in 2018 and Field Of Gold in 2024, and they both went on to win top class contests so the winner here is worth adding to your trackers. Four of them, namely Sonic Angel, Kodiac City, Breacher, and Rock Montreal arrive unbeaten, and it’s the Godolphin owned Roger Varian trained son of Blue Point that I want to be on. The 1,000,000gns yearling really caught the eye when winning at Yarmouth on his one and only start to date, pushed along two out before going close to three lengths clear of his nearest pursuer. He looked like a work in progress that day and has been showing up nicely on the Newmarket gallops in recent days, plus with a Group One entry he is clearly held in high regard.
3.40pm the Curragh
With the O’Brien pairing not looking good enough (famous last words) this gets trickier to solve, but decisions have to be made and I have come down on the side of Faiyyum, even if the Ger Lyons trained daughter of Frankel has to give her younger rivals 7lb. She doesn’t win as often as you would hope but did take a Group Three last September by seven lengths (though that was on heavy ground where distances get exaggerated), and this will be the fastest ground she has ever encountered, but on breeding that ought to help her not hinder her, though in a big field I will still chicken out and make her an each way suggestion.
6.30pm Windsor
A Listed contest over a mile three and a half furlongs to end our Saturday suggestions, and one where the William Haggas trained Tenability heads the early markets after his Group Three third at Deauville, but he stayed on strongly that day and may be better suited by even further than this. In the never ending hunt for value I give you White Birch, a risky proposition but more than capable of picking this lot up and carrying them I he can be cajoled back to his best. A Group One winner for trainer John Murphy in Ireland when he beat Auguste Rodin by three lengths in the Tattersalls Gold Cup in May 2024, he has gone steadily backwards since by those standards, not winning in a further four starts and losing his mojo. He has now had the triple whammy of being gelded, a wind operation, and a move to Jamie Osborne in Lambourn, and if that potent combination of a wake-up call can reinvigorate the six-year-old, the 9/1 as I write could be outstanding each way value.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Rock Montreal 3.30pm Sandown
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