Foreign Travellers, Trainers In Trouble - And A Few Winners

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(with the exception of the YouTube podcast with Ron Robinson here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaX89gvF3SE&feature=youtu.be

– if you love your racing, please give it a watch?).

We have a bit of a shortage of racing news to talk over this week (some will be delighted, others less so) but there was a very disturbing article that needs repeating, about the number of new trainers joining the ranks – or more importantly, the lack of them.  I won’t plagiarise others hard work but suffice to say the numbers are down about a third but although that is a racing horror story, is anyone really surprised? Perhaps those with family connections, or parents/sponsors with very deep pockets could still be encouraged to join our wonderful sport, but for anyone else all they read about is seasoned trainers giving up who can’t manage to make ends meet – so you would have to be supremely confident to think you can walk in on day one and suddenly garner owners out of left right and centre without the experience or race record to match. I don’t have an answer, with owners understandably fretting over prize money and less horses in training something had to give, though most of us felt it would be fixtures (or even racecourses as a worst case scenario) so the Levy Board input could be spilt over less races, giving more owners at least a small chance of breaking even.

The next piece of news was a pretty open secret in that Ed Crisford will be heading out to Jebel Ali to run what was a satellite yard in his own right despite the sad loss of Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum recently. My understanding is the family want the project to continue regardless, and he will be training up to 80 horses so there will be plenty of talent at his disposal – and an equal amount of pressure. I have little doubt he will be a success (I have been to the yard and it is in a beautiful situation, my jealousy has no bounds) and he has now upped his game considerably with Oisin Murphy joining him after the Breeders’ Cup. I cannot pretend to comprehend why the young man wants to give up cold wet days at Lingfield, Newcastle etc on the all-weather (doesn’t he own a coat?), but there is nowt as strange as folk and he seems to prefer the milder winter, luxury living and so on – who knew? Seriously though, it’s a big move for both of them to pair up and if they click as hoped I am sure they will have plenty of winners between them at the likes of Meydan, Jebel Ali, Saudi, Bahrain, Qatar and Abu Dhabi – there is a lot more going on over there than most are aware of and I am awaiting my invite for an interview!

Horror of horrors this week and Willie Mullins, jump racing’s golden boy, has been fined £1,100 and seen Final Demand disqualified from second in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham last March after the horse was tested and found to have a prohibited painkiller in his system. Anyone who backed the fourth at 80/1 (Now Is The Hour) will understandably feel aggrieved that their selection has now been promoted into the places with no payouts to them, and although Mullins himself appeared shocked by the outcome, it remains an unknown as to where it came from with the only treatment recorded administered too far in advance to have remained in the horse’s system at the levels found on race day. Naturally, some of the over excited media have blown in out of all proportion (it would not have helped the horse’s chances on race day one iota), and I suspect an internal enquiry at the Mullins yard has been underway ever since to make sure it never happens again.

Finally, I do like a bit of International news and Forever Young, the best dirt horse of recent years and the best ever from Japan, has touched down in America seven weeks ahead of the Breeders’ Cup. That is unusually early for travelling horses and obviously comes with added expenses, but the Japanese do like to try something new (like the Arc runners non having a prep run), and acclimatising way in advance cannot be a bad thing, though certain horses do realise when they travel and het sparked up by the occasion and there is the risk he becomes too settled in and lazy - we will have to wait and see.  

Saturday Racing

1.30pm Ascot

It’s the much heralded Champions Day at Newmarket and as things stand, we are all set for some top-class racing and on a sounder surface than is often the case. At the early declaration stage the Long Distance was up in the air with the possibility that Scandinavia would show up despite being beaten in Paris on Arc weekend, though amazingly this has gone to just the three horses over the last six years with Trueshan (three times), Trawlerman (twice) and Kyprios, so we will see a new name engraved on the trophy for 2026. In Scandinavia’s absence Aidan O’Brien relies on Queenstown (Ryan Moore) and Amelia Earhart (Colin Keane), and the truth is you can never ignore runners from Ballydoyle, but there are others I prefer. Caballo De Mar is an obvious choice having won the Prix du Cadran but he had a tough race in Paris to fend off Scandinavia and I am wary this may come too soon. Gregory is a horse I have a lot of time for but he needs to find more in this exalted company, and I am going to take the risk on Joseph O’Brien’s St Leger winner Highwayman. The yard are having a season to remember and go from strength to strength, with the three-year-old son of Persian King belying his pedigree to win his last three races from a mile and a half to a mile and three-quarters, but he steps into unknown territory here. Staying on strongly at Doncaster under Saffie Osborne, there is every hope he will get the two miles to become the first of his age group to win this race since Akmal way back in 2009.  

2.05pm Ascot

From two miles in the 1.30pm to six furlongs for the Champion Sprint and one of the shortest priced favourites on the card. Chris Cook did a wonderful article in the Racing Post warning us not to get too carried away and noting we have seen winners at all prices up to 200/1 and just the sole winning favourite in the last 10 runnings – punter beware! Contrary to popular belief I do rely on the formbook more than anything else and in that case it is close to impossible to oppose Almeraq here despite his short price. William Haggas’ four-year-old has won three of his four starts this year including the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Betfair Sprint at Haydock (both Group Ones) with the only blip a poor run at Newmarket in the July Cup. Good ground should be fine (with more rain a bonus but not an essential) and if he remains at that level he probably wins, simple as that. Kind Of Blue won this race in 2024 and had a decent prep race when winning at Kempton, looking a bit more like his old self in the process, while I did note that plenty of recent winners have come out of a high draw, making French raider Samangan my idea of the each way alternative.

2.40pm Ascot

Every race at this time of year should come with a wealth warning as even the trainers can’t be sure which horse has had enough for the season until they disappoint on the track, but if Kalpana remains at her peak then this is all over bar the shouting – and can held Andrew Balding gain the trainer’s title. She really is a wonder mare with wins this season in the King George at Ascot and the Yorkshire Oaks, both Group Ones, before a respectable fifth against the colts behind Daryz in the Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp, giving 7lb to Diamond Necklace, the only female to finish in front of her. Back against her own sex, and the winner of this for the last two years, there is a school of thought the Longchamp track does not play to her strengths and if she remains on her “A” game she is hard to bet against. With her three-year-old allowance the Jim Bolger trained Sparan Nua is her equal on official ratings but she was beaten over five lengths in the Prix Vermeille and needs to bounce back from that to challenge, with See The Fire possible each way value to sneak into a place.

3.00pm Market Rasen

It is just about time to start bringing jumps racing to the fore, even at the weekend, so I have thrown in a Class Two handicap hurdle here – wish me luck, I will need it!  With £25,000 guaranteed hands up who else expected a decent sized field, but it’s not to be with just the frankly disappointing six runners. Transmission heads the weights for Neil Mulholland ahead of his return to action after finishing seventh at Sandown over fences, but I have a concern that he will be back chasing sooner rather than later, and this may just be a race to put him spot-on. As a huge fan of the Twiston-Davies family my selection here with The Egyptian Ginge, despite a leap of faith from a Class Four at Worcester to a Class Two here. Lightly raced with just the 11 starts, and with two wins from eight over hurdles, he has been a revelation since stepping up in trip, winning by over six lengths at Ludlow and 19 lengths at Worcester and although upped 10lb for his latest victory, he has a race fitness edge over most of these and ought to take full advantage.

3.20pm Ascot

The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over the straight mile looks one of the tougher races to solve with the less mature three-year-olds potentially already having had enough for the year. Talk Of New York heads the market for Charlie Appleby and William Buick after the son of Wootton Bassett won the Joel Stakes by five lengths and although that was a Group Two, his third to Bow Echo in the St James’s Palace Stakes is solid form. That said, Gstaad was one place and a length and a half ahead of him that day, and he is the poor horse saddled with my selection. Admittedly he has not lived up to expectations recently with a poor third at Longchamp when sent off odds-on in September, but at the time the stable’s horses were under a bit of a cloud and I am hoping he is back to his best now. His seconds to Bow Echo twice stand out for me, with connections convinced they would eventually get the better of the retired superstar, though now we will never know. Rayif, Zeus Olympios, and Ten Bob Tony are all entitled to have a say on their best form, but I am happy to stick to my selection and put my faith in Ryan Moore once more.

3.37pm Newton Abbot

The one running of this race was won by the Dan Skelton trained Riskintheground, ridden by Tristan Durrell, but historically that is all we have to go on. As you can imagine I pick these races well in advance but even I failed to second guess a pathetic four runner field when there is £30,000 up for grabs and the official going is good – of course some want it softer but it is not dangerous ground and it hard to keep sympathising with poor owners when they won’t run their horses. One of the four owners will pick up £1,884 for finishing last and good luck to them, as long as it isn’t Quebecois who is my rather unimaginative selection. Trained at Ditcheat by Paul Nicholls, the seven-year-old is yet to win over fences but has posted up some decent efforts with a third in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival when beaten less than a length. My one concern is that race is run over three miles and a furlong and he drops back to two miles five this afternoon though hopefully he retains the speed needed. Country Mile is the obvious danger for the Skelton ream but I’ll stick to my pick – though this is a no bet race for me at prohibitive odds regardless.  

4.00pm Ascot

The race of the day, on paper at least, and assuming the big guns all stand their ground. Calandagan won this last year and is one of my favourite horses, but I get the nagging feeling he is better at a mile and a half than the ten furlongs he faces here these days, while connections admit his main target is the Japan Cup in November – so will Christophe Soumillon go after him big time if necessary, or will he go easy with the more valuable contest on the agenda? All supposition of course, and basically confusing to me at least! Ombudsman owes connections nothing with close to £5 million in win and place prize money, and although he was way below par before finishing fourth in the Juddmonte International I am hoping he can bounce back on what is probably his last racecourse appearance. You don’t win four Group Ones and get rated the joint best horse in the World without plenty of talent, and I am struggling to see why many are writing him off after one bad race. Constitution River won the French Derby back in May and followed that with the Coral Eclipse and as he gets 4lb as a three year old after going under by less than a length to Hotazhell and Wimbledon Hawkeye in the Irish equivalent it would be naïve to simply write him off, but he will need to find more to bother the front two in the market, even at these weights.

Something for the weekend:

Gstaad to win 3.20pm Ascot