Stallions, Winners, Money, and Suggestions All In One PlaceA

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(with the exception of the YouTube podcast with Ron Robinson here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TJwpixOBkM&feature=youtu.be – if you love your racing, please give it a watch?)

There is only one place to start this week and that has to be the performance of Arc de Triomphe winner Daryz who I have to respect even if I did oppose him on the day (mainly because of the short price, that will teach me). Now I may be looking through rose tinted spectacles as we all do on occasion, but I genuinely felt that last Sunday saw one of the strongest Arc fields in many years, and for Francis-Henri Graffard’s colt to put them to the sword like that was some effort. Do watch the replay if you haven’t already, the son of Sea The Stars did his sire proud and was given a supremely confident ride by Mickael Barzalona who eventually settled him nearer last than first before coming with a perfectly timed run to win by a length and a quarter. It was certainly a smooth run but at 6/5 he was a very silly price before the race, though with hindsight, a winner is a winner. He won’t be back next year for the hat-trick, which is a real shame, but connections may already have his “replacement” with Varandir who was left with far too much to do but posted the fastest closing sectionals albeit it too little too late. If he stays in training next year I can see him back here with a solid chance, and I am sorely tempted to have a little on now at 20/1 -though ante post betting is not a hobby of mine.

Leading neatly on to stud fees and I have spent many years arguing the tails wags the dog – if it wasn’t for the money that can be made by Daryz and others once they retire, we may have seen him back looking for his hat-trick. As mentioned before I would love to see a tapering tax regime where stallions are taxed heavily if they retire at three, slightly less at four, lower at five years old, and so on, but getting the entire racing world to agree would no doubt be problematical – and even if we went it alone (unlikely to be honest) that would only give advantages elsewhere and see the top horses moved abroad for their time at stud.  

Meanwhile, our beloved government continue to see gambling as akin to leprosy as they consider going after the slot machines with an increased tax. Now I am no fan of the hypnotic flashy lights that generally speaking swallow money faster than a greedy man at an all you can eat buffet, but the cold hard truth is if High Street bookmakers can’t use them to keep their profits going, they will close in their hundreds, taking media rights income racing so badly needs with them. To my amusement, that seem to think an increase in tax will mean more revenue for government spending but all the forecasts I have read suggest they will disappear in their droves and the tax revenue stream will actually decrease – now if you and I can see that surely the so-called clever people ought to see it in a second flat?  

Lastly for this week we have the sales at Newmarket and the big guns have been opening their wallets and opening them wide. I do see a problem as racing goes cap in hand to government asking for help because of our frankly pitiful prize money, while money is being spent like water, but maybe I am just jealous. So far this week we have seen a son of Night Of Thunder break the European Sales record at 4.6 million guineas, a Frankel colt for 1.8 million guineas (both to Godolphin), a Justify colt for 1.8 million guineas, and a 4 million guineas Frankel colt (both to Coolmore). What amazes me is that both Coolmore and Godolphin have amazing stallion rosters of their own to work with, yet they still cough up when the very best go through the sales ring – now all we have to do is wait and see if they turn out to be value for money – or flop on the track as so many have in the past. As you may guess I am no fan of AI (as my job is at stake), but if you can’t beat them join them and I did do a quick search on expensive purchases over recent years. Bottom line is they are buying the best bloodlines, no doubt about that, but looking at a yearling and second guessing how it will do on the track is an inexact science and with limited Group Ones to win each season, I wish the big spends all the luck in the world – I suspect they are going to need it! To give two (extreme) examples, St Mark’s Basilica was a “bargain” at 1.3 million guineas before going on to win five Group Ones, while Al Naamah cost 5 million guineas before winning a Chantilly maiden on debut – and nothing else, though to be fair she has mothered plenty of winners since being sent off as a broodmare, though none as yet at a decent level.

On to the racing…

Saturday Racing

Newmarket 1.15pm

As end of season Group Three races go this one belongs to the Gosdens who have won four of the last nine runnings, including the last two with Lead Artist and Damysus. All their winners were three-year-olds which would interesting if they had a runner – but they don’t so it’s back to the drawing board. Haatem just about heads the early betting after a neck win at Kentucky Downs in a Grade Three last time out (so in theory he is dropping in class), but that was his first win since June 2025 – has he turned a corner or did the ever shrewd Richard Hannon simply exploit a suitable opportunity? Ryan Moore rides the five-year-old for owners Wathnan Racing, but their retained jockey is James Doyle, and he is on board Humidity in the same colours. On the negative side, we haven’t seen the son of Ulysses in action since September last year, but on the bright side we have the form book. His last run was a length second to Bow Echo in the Group Two Royal Lodge Stakes here over a furlong shorter, and with the winner landing the 2000 Guineas, the St James’s Palace Stakes, and the Sussex Stakes before retiring unbeaten it takes a braver man than me to crab that effort. He gets between 4lb and 7lb from theoretically inferior opponents, so we are basically betting on whether or not Andrew Balding has him fit enough to do himself justice, and whether or not he retains his old ability.       

York 1.30pm

A Listed race over six furlongs is our one race from York this Saturday but with the vast majority of the field looking fully exposed (and less likely to find dramatic improvement) I am hopeful this won’t be too hard to solve – famous last words. The favourite as things stand is Agamemnon, the Richard Hughes trained son of Mehmas who has had seven career starts, winning one of them at Wolverhampton but not being disgraced in better races with a four and a quarter length seventh in the Group Two Flying Childers at Doncaster over the minimum trip. Upped a furlong here, I have no doubt he arrives with the best form in the book, but I am hoping he may be susceptible to an improver such as Divine Whisper. George Boughey’s Mehmas filly may get the better of her sibling having won on her second start in June when scoring at Windsor before a solid if not spectacular third to Wild Blossom in a decent race at Goodwood. She kept on well over the five furlongs that day after a slow start, suggesting the six she faces here will help her chances, while two months off to freshen up will hopefully see her arrive here fit and firing. She is no good thing (nothing is at the weekend), but at 9/1 as I write she is certainly each way material at that price.

Newmarket 1.50pm

I have always felt the Zetland Stakes over a mile and a quarter can be quite a test for a two-year-old and in my mind, I like to look for the lighter raced sorts – the last thing any horse needs is a stamina test if they already burned out after a long hard season. Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien have won six of the last nine runnings between them but only the one stable is represented here when Ballydoyle send Drumbeat over the Irish Sea after the son of Wootton Bassett finished third to stablemate Noble Exhibit in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh. Although beaten three lengths at the line he was doing his best work late on suggesting this trip will suit but 6/5 is certainly skinny enough in my book. He does have the form to win this and therefore I cannot sensibly oppose him, but nor would I fall over in shock if the once raced maiden winner Bowdens improved enough to give him a race after his four length Hamilton victory, and he is my idea of the each way alternative. 

Newmarket 2.25pm

One of the toughest races to suggest a bet in on the entire Newmarket card though the fact that Aidan O’Brien had seven entered at the early stage and now relies on Sergei Diaghilev may give us all a clue. A Listed winner at Gowran Park in August, he followed that with a three length second to Desert Castle in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, put in his place by the Godolphin colt but clear of the third. The winner is currently odds on for the Group One Dewhurst Stakes this afternoon while the O’Brien colt drops into Group Three company which he should find easier pickings, and although I remain wary of both Charlie Appleby colts (Rock Montreal and Al Jabbar), they need to find more if they want to get the better of my selection.

Newmarket 3.00pm

A Group One with the Dewhurst Stakes over seven furlongs with £500,000 in total prize money and over £280,000 for the winner and every chance they are crowned champion European two-year-old at the end of the season. It looks very likely to end up a small but select field which means we need to look at possible tactics, and with two each from Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien (plus one from Andrew Balding), your guess may be as good as mine. Desert Castle arrives unbeaten after wins at Newmarket and Doncaster but good as he may become, I am yet to be as impressed as some of my fellow scribes. He still looks green and I admit that if the penny has now dropped, he could be pretty special, but it will be interesting to see how Godolphin attempt to cope with Darkness Falls. Aidan O’Brien’s son of Camelot ran on strongly to score by over four lengths to win the nine furlong Golden Fleece Stakes at Leopardstown but how will he cope with the speed needed for this seven furlong trip? The problem is that there is every chance that the Appleby hotpot will fail to settle if they try to run this at a crawl, but if they make a proper race of it, they may be playing into Ryan Moore’s hands. That is exactly how I see things panning out with either Jassas, Great Barrier Reef, or even Gentle Hurricane taking them along but if they don’t, Ryan could yet make his own running and attempt to draw the finishing speed out of his rivals close home.

Newmarket 3.40pm

Just the one handicap to deal with today but it is a doozie – the two miles two furlongs Cesarewich that has seen winners priced as low as 4/1 and big as 66/1 in the last 16 runnings. I am off profiling again (it’s about time it found us another winner), and with a maximum of 32 runners (29 in the end) we are going to need our fair share of luck and then some! Only one of those 16 winners was drawn higher than 24 which seems strange but stats are stats so will be deleting any runner drawn 25 and above whatever the final field size, while 15 of the 16 had come home in the top six on their previous start. Four to seven year olds have won 14 so I will also use that as a marker, while all 16 winners were officially rated 84 or above with only one rated higher than 101. None had raced in the last seven days, but 15 had raced in the last 120 days and 14 in the last 90 days. Putting that into action (if that is the right word) and we get the original field down to “just” 15 so there is more work to do! 13 of the 16 winners came from the first 14 in the betting so using current odds (no choice sadly) we lose five more, while 14 had raced six times or less this season, and much as I am now clutching at straws, I am down to seven runners. Looking at that mini set and the trainer record and its Ireland all the way for me with Willie Mullins winning this three times (Highwind), and Emmet Mullins once – but from only five attempts (Cock And Bull and Dream On Baby). Both finished third on their return, and both won last time out, but the pin has been called into action and I will go for Dream On Baby each way. A Listed winner over hurdles, she won by 12 lengths on the Flat at Tramore over two miles in August, and I am hoping this has all been a plot for her handicap debut – we will soon find out.

Something for the weekend:

Water To Wine 2.05pm York each way