A Little Something For Glorious Goodwod

All eyes are on Goodwood this week for their “Glorious” meeting, and we need to focus on the Sussex Downs with ITV coverage a bonus. Profiling using past races has been pretty successful lately naming the winner and the second on our last two attempts, so we will have a go at the opening mile and a quarter handicap – though we will need a bit of luck no doubt with 18 runners!

Goodwood 1.20pm

Looking at the past 15 years and searching out statistical facts, I am looking for anything that gives us at least 12 winners (80%) as a guideline. So, I note that: 12 winners had finished in the first seven last time out, all 15 were aged five or younger, 13 were priced 20/1 or shorter at the off, 13 came from stall five or higher, 14 were rated 102 or lower, and all 15 were rated 90 or above, and 14 had raced within the last 60 days. Add those into the mix (drum roll please), and we end up with a shortlist of four – Defiance, English Oak, Castle Cove, and Westridge. I will be happy enough if the winner comes from that quartet, but looking at trainer form in this race and only one of the four handlers listed has won this before – Newmarket maestro William Haggas who took this in 2018 with Alfarris and has also managed two places. That makes Castle Cove my final pick (each way, of course), so fingers crossed the facts help us unearth another winner.

Goodwood 2.30pm

Away from the handicaps next and I refuse to abandon Jonquil just yet. I did burn my fingers when they dropped him back to six furlongs for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot where he didn’t have the early speed on lightning quick going, but good ground here and an added furlong should allow him to find his rhythm as he looks to repeat the form of his head second to Henri Matisse in the French 2000 Guineas.   

Goodwood 4.20pm

A third suggestion (with Goodwood a Festival), and all eyes will be on Naval Light ahead of the six-furlong maiden due off at 4.20pm. Owned by Wathnan Racing who also run High Approval, the son of Havana Grey was second at Redcar first time out, and was last seen finishing eighth in the Group Two Norfolk Stakes over a furlong shorter at Royal Ascot. Slowly away that day, which you can ill afford over the minimum trip let alone at that level, and to make matters worse he was then denied a clear run. He would not have won regardless I admit but he would have finished closer than a five and three-quarter length eighth, and even than should be enough to see him home in front this afternoon, with James Doyle doing the steering.