All Things Racing And A Winner Or Two

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(with the exception of the Podcast recorded with Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwV5sBFYKz8 ).

We start this week with all the kerfuffle going on about Barrier trials and whether or not they should be in the public domain. As the outgoing chair of the Horseracing Bettors Forum (one more meeting to go after over four years), I do have a pretty string opinion. For those out of the loop, there have been organised private barrier trials, usually for unraced horses who have a “race” or sorts at a racetrack to get them used to travelling to the course, coming out of the stalls, and getting competitive. I have no problems with that whatsoever, in fact I think it’s a good idea and one used in the likes of Hong Kong and Australia, but with all the info recorded or broadcast live, from horse names to sectional timing. I appreciate that means extra work for the BHA but as things stand we are seeing well-backed horses winning on their debuts, then afterwards the trainer tells us all about the barrier trial that put him or her straight – something the massive majority like you and me had no idea about – and that’s just wrong. The HBF have always campaigned for more information for punters (whether they use it is up to them), and with modern technology even an I-phone on a stick and a livestream would do for starters until the powers that be work out where the money comes from – but having it done “in secret” simply isn’t on and leaves the punters who find the sport in the dark once more.

A P McCoy made some friends and some enemies with his comments about the Sandown going for the final jumps meeting of the season on Saturday, suggesting the word Firm should never appear in the going description. I can see where he is coming from, and if he is talking about the safety of the horses I am all in favour – but if it’s just because it doesn’t suit some then we disagree. As mentioned time and again my view is that they water to suit some but if I owned a horse who liked it quicker, I’d be fuming, and Saturday would have been my best chance of hunting down a decent pot. Truth is they will never please everyone, and with a Flat meeting on Friday afternoon they did not get the chance to put enough water on (that could be looked at I suppose, build in a day’s gap), but as long as the horse welfare experts don’t see the ground as an issue, then I say let nature take its course, though if we keep getting drier winters (and no-one builds new reservoirs despite houses being built left right and centre), the problem seems sure to get worse over the years ahead.

Next up we have my latest (accidental) tongue twister with a photo finish farce fury at Perth my idea of a decent headline, but you have to feel sorry for some punters who were quite frankly robbed. To cut a long story short, they called the wrong result of the 5.35pm at Perth last Friday, let them weigh in – then amended the result to the correct one an hour later.  We all make mistakes, especially me (ask my wife), and I am not out to “get” those who called the result in error, but you have to feel for anyone who backed the 14/1 winner – and will never get paid out. I don’t know how many there were or to what stakes, but in a sport looking to attract new customers anyone who backed him on their first visit to a track will leave with a very nasty taste in their mouth – a 14/1 winner and nothing to show for it. I understand the rules and how they are at present (after the weigh-in, that’s your lot), but surely something has to give in circumstances like this, though I am yet to read of any generous bookmaker payouts after the event.   

Next up we have another body blow to trainer Paul Nicholls, with the news that owners Johnny and Samantha de la Hey have removed all 11 of their horses from the yard and moved them to Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden, and Chris Gordon. Now I am told Paul can be abrasive on occasions, though I have met him numerous times and find that hard to believe, and I really wish I knew what was actually going on? I accept he may not be the powerhouse of old, but I don’t think that’s down to his training skills and more about not having horses of the calibre of Denman or Big Bucks as two examples, and with £2,166,461 in prize money last season leaving him in fourth place, he is hardly yesterday’s man in my view. I am afraid I don’t wear the reasoning of a strategy of having their horses with various trainers which makes sense at first glance – until you realise they haven’t left any at Ditcheat, and I can only hope that Paul knows or finds the reason why - and quickly does something about it.  

Lastly, I have been asked to nominate one horse to follow for the Flat season – not something I like doing with handicappers being punished for any good run – and the group class runners up against the best from the UK and abroad every time they run. After much though I have plumped for the Karl Burke trained Shareholder, the winner of his first two starts at Beverley and then in the Group Two Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot before disappointing at Deauville and then in the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar on a track like a road. He missed all of last year with minor issues but Karl is insistent he is more mature and has filled out his frame now, and if they campaign him carefully, I can see him turning out to be one of our better sprinters.

Bob Baffert - Kentucky Derby Time

Saturday racing

1.10pm Newmarket

In my view this looks a pretty competitive Listed race but the betting tells me I am wrong with Flora Of Bermuda trading as short as 7/4 as I write. Trained by Andrew Balding for Wathnan Racing she is rated 3lb or more superior to all her rivals here, but my concern is that she is now a five-year-old and has not won on her seasonal return yet. At the odds the value could be with the William Haggas trained Sky Majesty, who only has the mentioned 3lb to find, but won first time out as a juvenile before finishing third on her first start last season. She has competed at the top table and was beaten less than seven lengths by Asfoora in the Group One Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp in October on her latest start, with a five length fifth to Big Mojo in the Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock also on her CV. Add wins at Group Two and Group Three level as a juvenile and she has proven ability at this level and beyond, and at her age it is not impossible we have not seen the best of her just yet.

1.30pm Goodwood

Another Group race in everything but name with some decent filles in opposition, some with the form in the book, others potential improvers. Fitzella fits the first description after weakening over further when fifth in the Nell Gwynn Stakes at Newmarket, but she was headed with two furlongs to go and I don’t buy the trip as the reason. Her juvenile form gives her the edge with a Group Three win and a Group Two second, but I am hopeful that Hassaleh will improve past her this afternoon. Trained by Charlie Appleby and racing in the famous Godolphin blue, the daughter of Night Of Thunder showed promise with a Windsor third as a two-year-old but added to that when winning as she pleased at Newmarket, scoring by three lengths over the seven furlongs. She showed plenty of speed that day so the six furlongs here should not be a problem, and if she handles the track (always a question mark here), then I can see her winning, though at 6/1 I’ll be a coward and suggest her each way.

2.05pm Goodwood

Blue Bolt heads the early betting for Andrew Balding which surprised me as she is officially rated 2lb inferior to Shes Perfect, and they meet at level weights. Most racegoers would like to see Charlie Fellowes’ filly win this after she lost the French 1000 Guineas in the Stewards room last year, including me, and she gets the narrowest of votes thanks to her five race career that suggests she will do even better as a four-year-old. There is no Zarigana in this line-up so with her old nemesis missing this may be her best chance of a first win since her debut back in 2024. Kon Tiki is the apple of Jane Chapple-Hyam’s eye and was a touch unluck before finishing seventh in the Coronation Stakes at Royal ascot where she got a poor run at the leasers, and although I doubt she can win this, I’ll be keeping a careful eye on how she gets on for future reference.  

2.55pm Newmarket

Asfoora is no Ka Ying Rising, but she is probably the best sprinter active in Europe at the moment having won the Nunthorpe Stakes at York and the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp last season. She is the best horse here without any doubt, but she has to give weight away all round ahead of her seasonal return and that may prove a huge ask. Three-year-olds have won this in the past, albeit pretty rarely, and at 16/1 or so, how can I resist Beckford’s Folly? Charlie Appleby’s son of Lope De Vega won two out of four last season and returned at Newmarket where he won the Cornwallis Stakes by a hard fought nose. Upped a furlong for the Abernant Stakes he didn’t see it out before being beaten three lengths at the line but returns to a fast run five today which looks ideal. On official ratings he is 5lb inferior to Asfoora, yet with his age allowance he gets 10lb, and at that price I cannot resist a small each way bet.

3.35pm Newmarket

Although I am happy to be proven wrong by season’s end, this year’s 2000 Guineas has so far failed to set my pulse racing, and unless we have an impressive winner, I suspect it could be a substandard renewal. Aidan O’Brien only runs one horse which is a rarity in itself, and although Gstaad won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, I still get the feeling he was not the original number one contender. Charlie Appleby runs two but again, who remembers all the talk about Distant Storm and Kings Trail over the winner – nope, me neither!  Both have to do more to win this and if there is a superstar in this line-up then then George Boughey’s Bow Echo could be it. Unbeaten after three starts culminating in the Royal Lodge Stakes which he won by a length from Humidity, his trainer makes no secret of how well he has been working in Newmarket, and as it was always the pan to come here without a prep race, he will do for me in a tough race to try to call.

11.57pm Churchill Downs

Nothing like ending the day way outside my comfort one, but the Kentucky Derby is a true world event and cannot pass unnoticed. Raced over a mile and a quarter at Churchill Down and on dirt, it’s pretty alien stuff to me, but hey, I can watch replays like everyone else and then gauge an opinion – for what it’s worth -as well as talk to my colleagues stateside. Renegade heads the market for trainer Todd Pletcher after winning the Arkansas Deby by four lengths, but he comes out of the one stall and that box hasn’t seen a winner since 1986 and he looks poor value to me. The Puma has followed a similar path to Mage who won this for trainer Gustavo Delgado three years ago and he can go well at an each way price, but decisions need to be made and at bigger odds I will be on Emerging Market. The one thing missing from Chad Brown’s CV is a Kentucky Derby win and after his recent work, the trainer is confident he can break that hoodoo. Lightly raced with only two starts, winning at Tampa bay Downs on debut and following that with success in the Louisiana Derby he will need  to make history here as no horse has won this on just their third outing since 1893, but with a l lively early pace expected this seems sure to go to a closer once more, and if he gets a decent run he could be the one to take full advantage. 

Something for the weekend:

Bow Echo each way 3.35pm Newmarket