Tips, Blips, And All Things Racing Once More

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(with the exception of the Podcast recorded with Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame here https://youtu.be/9ngJ9lmkgZk ).

Not the most exciting racing this weekend I’m afraid but I have to start by reminding everyone I did give you the easy 9/2 winner of the 2000 Guineas as my bet of the week last Saturday – makes a change I know, but you just have to blow your own trumpet sometimes.

Bragging rights over and what did we all think of the race – has George Boughey unearthed a superstar, or are this season’s three-year-olds not really worthy of more than a passing mention? As you have probably worked out I am not much of a clock-watcher as we all know some horses need to win by the shortest of margins and down tools once they hit the front, meaning their race times are dictated by those at the head of the pack and not necessarily an accurate barometer of their full ability, but the truth is Bow Echo clocked the fastest 2000 Guineas time since Kameko who recorded 1:34:72 on 2020 (Bow Echo recorded 1:35:59) with the well-backed Gstaad left trailing two and three-quarter lengths in his wake despite getting first run, and Godolphin’s Distant Storm a further eight lengths back in third. Now it may be that the rest of the classic crop aren’t very good, and until the placed horses turn out again we have to take the form with a pinch of salt, but he did it well on his first start of the season and only his fourth start in his career (all of them winnings ones), though it has to be mentioned that True Love won the 1000 Guineas a day later a fraction quicker (1:35:14) off the same weight, and it will certainly be interesting of those two ever meet over a mile where she would get weight as a filly. Personally, he looks a decent sort without any doubt, but he needs to follow that up on his next start before we can mention his as an all-time great – people do like to big horses up only to watch them fall next time out.   

Meanwhile, racing’s embarrassing civil war continues, with Ascot officially giving notice to leave the Racecourse Association (RCA), and the Jockey club threatening to follow suit. I am not privy to all the discussions but they had a fair point – one track one vote seems ludicrously unfair when the likes of Grade One track Ascot, home of the Royal meeting next month, has the same voting power as Carlisle (for example – sorry Carlisle).  Personally I think there could be more to it than that - Ascot recognise racing is potentially in a world of pain and support a stronger BHA (British Horseracing Authority) with the power to actually make things happen and fast (as do I), whereas others seem to be missing the bigger picture and only look to their own bottom line for this year – and sod the consequences for racings dubious future.

On a really positive note, is there any stopping Dan Skelton whose enthusiasm for winners appears to have no bounds. After winning the National Hunt Trainers Championship, based on prize money, for the first time, he has admitted his next target is Martin Pipe’s record of 243 winners in a single season.  Now I am working from memory here, but I feel Martin had a lot of low grade horses running in poor events on a regular basis that pushed up the numbers (though I am open to correction), while the majority of Dan’s horses are dining at or near the top table and won’t race so often, so it looks like a huge ask to me -  though he does have the most runners each season so I am not saying it is impossible – though the current betting for the new season is 2/5 he won’t and 7/4 he will – read into that what you will?  

Finally for this week, the next two Classics aren’t that far away (the Derby and the Oaks), and the recognised trials are in full swing. We will be discussing the Lingfield trials on Saturday afternoon later but earlier in the week all eyes were on Chester.  On Wednesday we had the Cheshire Oaks and the Chester Vase, won by Minnie Hawk (who won the Oaks and Lambourn (who won the Derby) respectively, both for Aidan O’Brien – so you can see why the races are worth a second glance. On Wednesday afternoon the bubble burst with I’m The One put in her place by Aidan O’Brien’s Amelia Earhart who romped home by a couple of lengths but I reserve judgement on the form – with the runner-up so inexperienced giving the race a slightly dodgy look about it. One race later the money was down on the same stable’s Benvenuto Cellini (an Italian artist and author apparently) and he cemented his place in the Derby market with a four length success from stable companion Proposition, though again the form is questionable with the runner-up boasting nothing more than a maiden success.

On Thursday we had another short-priced O’Brien winner, this time of the Dee Stakes as Constitution River was sent seven lengths clear of Andrew Balding’s Generic, though once more the form has a pretty hollow look to it. The winner did look the best seen this week to my eyes but I still get the feeling we need to await the Lingfield meeting Saturday and the York meeting and the Dante before all the cards available are on the table.

Saturday racing

1.28pm Lingfield

You can see why winning a trial at Lingfield is relevant with its similarities to the Epsom track, but the Oaks trial hasn’t attracted the winner of the big one since Anapurna in 2019, though User Friendly (1992), Lady Carla (1996), and Ramruna (1999) have all been successful in relatively recent years. With just the five runners this year I doubt we will be getting too many classic clues I’m afraid, and with Ryan Moore preferring Park Express fifth Cameo over the higher rated Bloom these may not be Aidan O’Briens “A” team. Romantic Symphony has done nothing wrong, winning at Newmarket on grass and on her return by four lengths on the all-weather at Kempton but this is a big step up in class and I am not convinced at the current 7/4. In a race I would rather just watch decisions have to be made, and I have come down on the side of Prizeland. Andrew Balding’s filly needed her debut when fourth at Leicester but has won both starts since with an eight length victory here on the all-weather over this trip, and although she does have more to do at this level, so does the jolly at a much shorter price.

1.58pm Lingfield

Things seem to go in pairs in this game with Anthony Van Dyck winning here and then at Epsom in 2019, the same year as the last filly to do the Lingfield trial/Oaks double, though you have to go back to High Rise to find the previous horse to use this as their prep race and go on to Blue Riband success. Maho Bay heads the early market for Charlie Appleby and William Buick, and the son of Dubawi has certainly looked the part in his two races so far. Debuting at Kempton over a mile and three furlongs where he won by six lengths, after which he switched to the turf over a furlong shorter where he cruised home by three and a half lengths. With a heady combination of speed and stamina shown so far, he looks a proper weapon for Godolphin to go to war with this season, and a win here will see the 33/1 for Epsom disappear in a puff of smoke. He did beat Aidan O’Brien’s Amadeus Mozart at Newmarket, so that stable will have a good idea of what is needed from Feilden Stakes fourth Isaac Newton, and it will be interesting to see if the Ballydoyle colt can make the selection pull out all the stops.   

2.20pm Ascot

Time for a dig through the statistics to see what patterns emerge, if any, so I have looked at the last 20 runnings to see what we can find. No winners priced at bigger than 25/1 is a pathetic starting point (and I can only use early odds as a guide), and we have had no winners older than seven for what that is worth, with four or five-year-olds taking 17 of the 20, a statistic I am being pretty much forced to use. Seventeen finished in the first seven home on their previous start, while no winners were rated higher than 104 (36 have tried), while 15 of the 20 has raced in the past 60 days. Nineteen had raced twice or less this season which doesn’t help very much), but from the long shortlist (can you have such a thing), while no current trainer or jockey have won it more than once – so a bit of a minefield then. As for the draw, we have had 15 of the 20 successful come out of a double digit stall which may influence my final decision, with the “unlucky for some” 13 stall the only one to have more than one winner in the period studied – with three. Down to a new list of six (not bad considering we started with 29) and the one I like statistically is Khafiz, Ed Bethell’s son of New Bay who was last seen finishing fifth at here over course and distance last month. With the stable record of three runners for one winner he looks a sensible each way call – though I will also be watching Nostrum very carefully on his first start for Mick Appleby – if they can freshen him up and get him anywhere near his best, then he is absolutely thrown in at these weights.

2.40pm Lingfield

We had a three-year-old heading the early betting here which seemed unusual – after all, that particular age group has only produced two winners in the last 10 runnings. When I started putting this together, the William Knight trained Royal Velvet headed the market but since then the money has come for Copacabana Sands who was always going to be my suggestion. Switched to Andrew Balding from the Michael O’Callaghan stable after finishing sixth in a Listed race at Tipperary on heavy ground, he has his first start for his new trainer this afternoon which will hopefully be a winning one. At his best he has won a Group Three at Leopardstown and if his new connections can get him back to that level then this is his to lose.

3.40pm Haydock

I have always seen seven furlongs as a specialised distance – that bit too far for the sprinters and that bit too sharp for the milers, though we will soon find out. Four-year-olds have won the last four runnings and it make be worth taking the chance that Release The Storm can improve enough to get competitive. Unbeaten after two starts with wins at Leicester and Doncaster over this trip, the fact that he wasn’t seen at all as a juvenile suggests he may be a late maturing sort, in which case there may be more to come, though he does have a mountain to climb if you rely on official ratings – 24lbs with Lake Forest to be precise, which is why I will be backing him each way!

Something for the weekend:

Copacabana Sands 2.40pm Lingfield