Albert Einstein Twice And Other Racing News

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(except for the Podcast link here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNXfGaadOj8 with the one, the only, Ron Robinson)!

The Aiden O’Brien trained Albert Einstein appears not once but twice in my racing chat section this week, and for two totally different reasons. Unless you have the memory of a goldfish you will remember me questioning the seemingly obligatory “best I have ever trained” type mantra that emanates from Ballydoyle seemingly every season, and like all good commentator’s curses, he was soundly beaten at the Curragh on Saturday afternoon. Weak in the market and sent off the 11/10 favourite from early quotes of odds-on, he did pull too hard for his own good (the only excuse I could see), but never looked like winning, or showing the acceleration you would expect if he was out of the top-drawer. He would not be the first O’Brien horse to leave that form miles behind him over the months ahead, but for now all those who took the 4/1 pre-race for the 2000 Guineas will have needed to turn to the bottle.

Interestingly, Aiden described him as a sprinter post-race, so I had expected a new list of alternative targets, but then we had the computer “blip”. Word is that as they were withdrawing both Albert Einstein and Gstaad from the Dante at York, the computer had a wobbly and they ended up being withdrawn from the 2000 Guineas by mistake. That brings two questions into my mind – if he is a sprinter, why were they leaving him IN the 2000 Guineas over a mile – and what happens next. Understandably, they are asking for an exception to be made for them both to be reinstated (and if they can PROVE a software fault, I am 100% on their side) – but if they can’t that would set a dangerous precedent for UK racing with the ability to blame a computer for any errors – deliberately or otherwise. It does seem a bit harsh that connections currently look as if they will have to stump up the money for supplementary entries even if there was no fault of their own, and trust me, with a month or so to go that will set them back a pretty penny even if they can afford it.  

Meanwhile to no-one’s great surprise, William Hill has announced the closure of around 200 betting shops with up to 1500 jobs going with them. The reasoning is cuts are needed thanks to the new on-line taxes on casinos and slots, but personally, I suspect that is being used as a good excuse and a chance to close expensive High Street properties, transferring business to the far cheaper to run on-line model. It is a shame as bookmakers are often social hubs, and a chance to keep an eye on the welfare of your friends, but the truth is I cannot remember the last time I stepped foot in one, and I suspect I am in the majority.  

Lastly, we have the next chapter of all things Constitution Hill, with the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) giving him an opening handicap mark of 101. No-one is suggesting that is as good as he is, or as high as he can get, but the truth is he will struggle to win a Listed race barring further improvement. His next target may well be the Group Three John Porter at Newbury on 18^th April I believe, but as this early stage he may well face one or more of Hamish (117), Convergent (116), and Al Aasy (115) plus others, which gives us all an idea of just how much he would have to find. Personally, I hope he wins and does it well as he is currently the face of racing to the public, and when the bubble bursts I have no idea who will or could replace him in punters and racegoers hearts, but for now we can all dream and hope he goes on to be even better on the Flat.

On to the racing…

Saturday racing

2.30pm Musselburgh

The Goliath Cup Stakes is a Listed race over a mile and three-quarters, and with no past runnings to go on, we must settle for a look through the formbook. Al Qareem is a shade of odds on as I write and there is little doubt he is the best horse in the race having won 12 races at up to Group Two level, and with form on pretty much every kind of going. One word of caution though, he is now a seven-year-old and is yet to win on his seasonal return, and much as I think he should win, taking that sort of price is a different issue. Mount Atlas only comes out 2lb behind him at these weights but he has the same issue on his first start of each season, while Many Men bucks that trend (winning on seasonal debut last year), but is up in class and may struggle in this company.

2.40pm Fairyhouse

Over to Ireland where we have a two mile five furlong Mares only Listed handicap which has been run three times and won by three different horses (none of them favourites), of three different ages, with three different trainers and three different jockeys – though I do note that two riders were conditionals claiming 5lb from the saddle. If that trend continues then the only winner is Me Wee Bonnie Lass with Patrick O’Brien in the saddle, and at 7/1 there are worse each way options after her Navan second. Kilbarry Saint gets my vote after winning last time out by four lengths at Clonmel, and I just got the feeling she idles once she hits the front and was value for further. Leading two out that day after travelling sweetly near the front rank, if she is held on to a little bit longer here by Danny Mullins, she has every chance of following up.

4.02pm Cork

On the Flat in Ireland the six furlong Cork Stakes is another Listed race, and one that has attracted a decent field considering the expected soft ground. Four-year-olds have won three of the five runnings, but the last two winners have returned at odds of 25/1 and 28/1, so it comes with a warning regarding bet sizes. As is the case at this time of year we are second guessing horse fitness as the higher class animals return from their winter off, but surely if they run to form, we are looking at a duel between Bucanero Fuerte and Chicago Call at these weights. The first named won his first two starts last year before a third in the Group One Flying Five at the Curragh and a seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar, and that form makes him the best here by some margin. He gets my vote but I am worried by Johnny Murtagh’s three-year-old who has been gelded over the winter and gets a stone from my selection, and I for one will be interested to see how he gets on at this level.

4.12pm Musselburgh

As I had the winner of the first two-year-old race of the season last week and sit on a 100% success rate I was sorely tempted to quit while I was ahead – but where is the fun in that? The Kalanji Man is entered to race here after finishing 14^th of 15 in the Brocklesby Stakes, 19 lengths behind stable companion and winner A Bear Affair for the Richard Hannon stable, but he is the only one with any racecourse experience of the 11 runners and clearly needs a big step forward. He was remarkably weak in the on-course market that day suggesting either he has shown nothing (so why run him) or would improve for considerably for the experience, so I am expecting a much better run here. With a slight favouritism for high drawn runners over this trip, especially when the ground has plenty of cut in it, he may need to track across from the five stall, and although the market may be a better guide than me with regard to the newcomers (Katie’s Knight has been well supported in the early markets), I will stick to my guns if only to very small each way stakes.

Sean’s suggestion:

Bucanero Fuerte 4.20pm Cork