Good News, Bad News, Winners And Losers!

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(with the exception of the Podcast recorded with Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWzDpL1hN0U&feature=youtu.be )

With plenty of racing to cover this Saturday (see below) common sense suggests I cut back a little on the “racing chat” and focus more of my attentions on finding winers – though we did alright last week so here’s hoping for more of the same.

I did note the Racing Post continue their (much needed) campaign against the introduction of affordability checks in their current guise, and by the time this is published we will hopefully know whether the Gambling Commission are listening – or turning a deaf ear as seems more likely. In simplistic terms they are supposed to be frictionless (as in you and I don’t even now they are happening behind the scenes) but as things stand that is far from the reality with punters everywhere being asked for bank statements (unredacted = unbelievable), P60s tax returns et al – and the majority telling them to stick them where the son doesn’t shine! This in turn drives punters to either give up or head to the black market (you remember them, the ones that didn’t exist in numbers UNTIL the Gambling Commission got involved, you couldn’t make it up), which is hardly a positive move in the protection of vulnerable punters. We now have the BGC (Betting and Gaming Council) considering/threatening legal action if they are brought in as they stand, and MPs of all parties (usually in racing constituencies) signing a letter to Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy asking for them to be halted. It would certainly be an interesting one to see bookmakers v Gambling Commission in a court of law as to who would come put on top (I am quietly confident who has the most resources to hire the better legal team) should it go that far, but I have no idea who would come out on top? Taking on an individual or even a company may be “cut and dried but taking on a non-elected statutory regulator could be breaking new ground and may well tie up the courts for years.

Back to the racing and what did everyone make of the Group One Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last Saturday afternoon. Taking nothing away from the well-backed winner Notable Speech, it didn’t feel like a vintage renewal to me – so I looked a little deeper. This year’s winner arrived with an official rating of 122 which was the highest in the race (so hats-off to the official handicapper who had it spot on), but how does that compare to yesteryear (clue – not as bad as I thought)? Lead Artist was rated 117 before winning last year, Audience 114 in 2024, and Modern Games 121 the year before, though I still feel the race has lost a little of its shine. Baaeed was rated 125 in 2022 (where did those years go), Palace Pier the same in 2021, but overall, I apologise to the connections of this year’s victor – he is better than I thought and a worthy winner suggesting my (and plenty of others) mind is playing tricks on me once again!

A strange story next up as Australian superstar Lady Of Camelot will not be heading to Royal Ascot as once hoped – or anywhere else for that matter – after being hurriedly retired for her new career as a broodmare. If you haven’t read why elsewhere you would never guess in a million years – she was stung by a stingray on Brisbane beach! Working and having fun in the salt water has long been seen as a benefit for those trainers with that luxury, but she had to be rushed to a specialist veterinary hospital after the incident, though the latest word is she is safe and sound even if she won’t race again.   

Next up and I cannot wait to write about the success of Napoleon Solo, the winner of the second leg of the American triple crown at Laurel Park last Saturday, the valuable Preakness Stakes. I had no skin in the game (thankfully) and missed the race but was delighted to see the result and the first Triple Cown win for trainer Chad Summers. I ran into Chad (thank to Laura King) ahead of the Breeders’ Cup back in 2018 when he ran the popular Mind Your Biscuits, after which he quit training to work in bloodstock before the call of training brought him back to a job he was obviously born for, winning the first prize of £888,888 with a horse bought for just $40,000, but that isn’t my reason for writing about it. Brad is a genuine guy, some talk to the media because they have to, some because they want to and he was (hopefully still is) in the second category. No question was deemed too stupid, no glancing at his watch, and sitting down for dinner with him was a real pleasure (and a career highlight, especially as he paid for it lol), and I cannot wipe the smile off my face when an all-round nice guy gets the rewards his hard work has earned over the years.  

Finally, people often ask me if I ever get bored with horse racing – as if!  Different horses every season, new trainers and jockeys, improvers and those going backwards, jumps Flat and the all-weather, it’s a never ending smorgasbord of interest. What I/we can’t afford to do is sit back on our laurels and expect to keep making a profit – we need to be constantly tinkering and looking for something, anything that gives us an edge, not over the bookmakers but over other punters. With no offence to those who put all the work in, if you follow the likes of Topspeed in the Racing Post you are unlikely to find too much value with every man and his dog doing the same thing, ditto horses who won last time out carte blanche, in-form jockeys and so on – we sometimes need to think outside the box. For instance there are two schools of thought on horses who travel hours for a race – one says they won’t be at their best after such a journey, the other that they must be targeted at said race, but which angle is correct if either (I might see if I can run some data on that when I get some spare time, perhaps certain trainers are better at it than others)? Most if not all winners can be found with hindsight – even the 150/1 winner on Monday this week at Carlisle (Freddie Steady Go) had claims when I looked AFTER the race with her sprint pedigree and inability to see out a mile on her previous two starts on the Flat. The cold hard facts are that none of us (even me) have the time to go into that much depth on every horse in every race (as I write this it is Tuesday and before any non-runners there are 311 runners so at a laughable three minutes per horse I would need 15 and a half hours), so statistics may yet be the way forward. Watch this space as they say, but the point to take forward is you can never afford to stand still in the Sport of Kings.

Saturday racing

2.00pm Goodwood

With only seven declared at the early stage (now down to five), this Listed contest over a mile and three has a smaller than hoped for field, but we can only deal with what they put in front of us. Last year saw Amical score for Ralph Beckett, and I do note that the last 10 runnings have seen three winning favourites, and only two winners priced at bigger than 7/2. The Gosdens have won three of the 10 and they run Saxon Street who looks the likeliest winner. Remembering this is a Listed contest, he still holds an entry in the Group One English Derby (even if he is very unlikely to head to Epsom after this), but that does at least show how highly regarded the son of Saxon Warrior is at the stable. I don’t personally believe he is bullet proof, how can he be after just the two starts, but he still looks the class act here and I cannot find a sensible reason to oppose him.

2.58pm Haydock

A quick six furlongs is next up with the Group Two Sandy Lane Stakes which usually goes to one of the better known stables with Charlie Appleby successful last year. Winners have been priced as short as 5/6 and as big as 33/1 so all things seem possible but the horse I am most interested in has to be Venetian Sun. Karl Burke’s daughter of Starman always had stamina questions to answer before she debuted for the season at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas where she finished a highly respectable six length eleventh to True Love in a race run at a ferocious pace (faster than the 2000 Guineas) where she weakened inside the final furlong. Dropped back in distance here to six furlongs, which on breeding looks a lot more suitable, she won the Group One Prix Morny over this trip as a two-year-old and is anything but out of place in this Group Two contest.

3.05pm Curragh

At the early declaration stage, we have a strong British raiding party and as they have won the last four runnings, including with James’s Delight at 22/1 in 2025, and five of the 10 runners still hail from these shores. I am far from convinced by the merits of any of these with Powerful Glory the best on official ratings but trading as favourite as I write despite being absent since winning the Champions Sprint at Ascot at odds of 200/1 – but can he repeat that level, we will soon find out. He is lightly raced for a four-year-old with just the five starts, winning three of them, and may have more to offer with another winter on his back, he has won on debut before (in 2024), and that just about sways me in his favour, though I would be far happier if the Fahey yard were in better form with a 17% strike rate in the last two weeks.

3.10pm Goodwood

For those too young the Height Of Fashion Stakes from Goodwood at 3.10pm is named after the 1979 born mare who raced in the colours of The Queen, winning plenty of decent races but perhaps better know these days as the dam of Nashwan, Nayef, Unfuwain and others. As for this Listed race over a mile and a quarter it’s the same problem as plenty of other races – three-year-olds only and who has or hasn’t trained on or improved? Nine runnings in the last 10 years have seen nine different trainers successful and nine different jockeys so no help there, and with only three winning favourites this is going to be tough! Earth Shot heads the early betting at a fraction of odds against after winning her maiden by five lengths at Newmarket, but although that was on Good ground, the fact that she runs here despite having an English Oaks entry makes me feel they think a bit of cut in the ground is advantageous and that they are looking to win this then head off for the Irish Oaks instead. Brilliant Star is the obvious danger having won her last two starts by 10 lengths or so, novice events at Yarmouth and Kempton, both over further where she made all the running, and I can see her using the same tactics again despite the drop in trip and run all these ragged from the off.

3.15pm York

Stamina is a prerequisite for the mile and three-quarters here and with a limited number of distance winners (two), we may need to look for a horse who COULD have the staying power over one who has already proved it. Four and five-year-olds have dominated in recent years and one look at the ratings points us in one and only one direction – Danielle is impossible to oppose, but probably equally impossible to back. Rated a full stone better than any of these, and 30lb clear of guaranteed stayer Rock N Roll Pinkie, she has tried this trip before unsuccessfully when second in the Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood and fourth in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster, but those were better and stronger races and I can see her getting home here. Naturally, other jockeys will look to exploit any stamina weaknesses and that could make for interesting tactics, but class will out and as I look even the 4/5 about her chances looks like excellent value.

3.30pm Haydock

The famous Temple Stakes over five furlongs may see a surprise with the word soft currently in the going description, and the majority entered far happier on a quicker surface, and we may yet see a non-runner or two unless the ground dries out. Karl Burke’s Night Raider won’t want it too deep having floundered on a softer surface at both the Curragh and Longchamp last year, but he kept on well on a faster surface to start this season with a win at Newmarket and warrants plenty of consideration of he runs. Asfoora needed the run when finishing a log way behind the suggestion at Newmarket but she is a triple Group One winner and meets her rival on 2lb better terms here but I would dare to suggest all roads lead to Royal Ascot and she may not be 100% until after today, while American Affair also looked as if he needed it before finishing tenth at York, and could be a different proposition here, though again his better form is on a much quicker surface.  

3.40pm Curragh

Not a race to bet on but the Irish 2000 Guineas cannot go unmentioned as a Classic. The Curragh mile awaits them once again, as Aidan O’Brien looks to win this for the first time since Paddington in 2023, with the Brits taking the last two with Field Of Gold landing the odds for the Gosdens last season. Gstaad would have won the English 2000 Guineas by eight lengths were it not for the presence of Bow Echo, and with that rival diverting to Royal Ascot this really does look his to lose, especially with his trainer reporting post-race that he expected him to come on for his first start of the season. He is hard to back at the current odds of 4/9 but what can we do – he is by far the likeliest winner. Distant Storm has eight lengths to find on Newmarket form and even first-time cheekpieces don’t look enough for him to find that much ground, and if I was given a small each way charity bet to play with, I might consider Go Just Do It at 50/1 - Joseph O’Brien is nobody’s fool and if he thinks the four length Gowran Park maiden winner deserves a place in this field then he could hit a top three spot – or am I clutching at straws?

Sean’s Suggestion

Venetian Sun 2.58pm Haydock