France, Lingfield, York Thoughts And Newbury At The Weekend

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(with the exception of the Podcast recorded with Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTr2J3VtVMM ).

A bit of a quiet week by recent standards but there is always something to talk about in this sport and after last week’s Guineas review its time to do something similar after the first two classics in France.

I have to start by saying the meteoric rise of trainer Francis-Henri Graffard has been astounding – the so called old guard of the likes of the legendary Andre Fabre have had to step to one side as the Chantilly based trainer sweeps all before him while proving popular with us scribes as he is never short of a comment and very self-effacing – some would say that makes a change in horse racing! As well as the world’s best horse in Calandagan and Arc winner Daryz, he now adds the Poule d’Essai Des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) winner Rayif to the ever growing Hall Of Fame. An Aga Khan Studs homebred son of Sea The Moon out of Rayisa he thundered home under regular pilot Mickael Barzalona for a length success after hitting the front a furlong out. He showed a terrier like attitude that day, ears back and giving his all which I like to see, and I am less convinced than some that he needs soft ground, though on breeding I suspect he may be better over further in time, and quick ground at the likes of Royal Ascot could see him rushed off his feet if he keeps to a mile.

Thirty-five minutes later we saw the Poule d’Essai Des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas), but this time Monsieur Graffard had to settle for fourth and fourteenth. In my opinion (not sure about official ratings to be honest) Diamond Necklace was the best filly in Europe but we all wanted to know if she had trained on and got an emphatic answer. Aidan O’Brien’s daughter of St Marks Basilica arrived unbeaten after finishing last season with victory in the Prix Marcel Boussac over course and distance, and she certainly impressed here winning by three lengths after being sent to the lead at the furlong pole. One word of caution for those who jumped in to back her for the Oaks, the fact that her last two races have been in France suggests she may like plenty of cut in the surface, though she has won on good ground at Leopardstown and the Curragh. Personally (and I have been wrong plenty of times before as we all know), I suspect her next race will be the Prix Diane (French Oaks) on the 14^th of June with Epsom left for other contenders from Ballydoyle.

Sometimes in life I get a bit mischievous and this week I am asking you all the question – where does Ryan Moore sit in the list of all-time top Flat jockeys in the United Kingdom and Ireland?  The older amongst us will no doubt shout the name Lester Piggott and understandably so, Fred Archer perhaps, Joe Mercer, Pat Eddery, Steve Cauthen, Willie Carson and of course Frankie Dettori. The truth is there is no right or wrong answer, it’s all seen through rose-tinted glasses, and with different rules (I suspect Lester would be permanently banned under today’s regime unless he changed his riding style), and there is also the question of the horses concerned. If I was driving a dominant Formula One car I’d expect do better than I would in a Morris Minor, so are they the very best jockeys – or were they just riding the best horses (think Piggott and Vincent O’Brien, Frankie and Godolphin, Carson and Hamdan Al Maktoum and so on), but for me Ryan certainly belongs in the conversation. Yes, he is riding the best bluebloods for Coolmore and others, and in many cases horses who outclass the opposition, but he gets the job done in a very underrated style, makes very few mistakes, and just keeps racking up high class winners year after year. I have little doubt he is the best in action here at present but you will be pleased to know I am not looking for a punch-up – your opinion is as valid as mine – and if I have missed anyone you think should be included feel free to reach out.    

Meanwhile, racing politics took another funny turn this week with political advisor and one time anti-gambling guru James Noyes resigning from the Gambling Act Review Evaluation Advisory Group, with the potential rolling out of the dreaded affordability checks without “meaningful evaluation”. Bottom line (and I need to simplify it for my own understanding), it looks ever more likely that the Gambling Commission will bring them in regardless, even in the knowledge that they are not frictionless (as promised) and will divert far too many to the black market. Now I have met James who is as sharp as a tack and way cleverer than me (who isn’t), and he is very focussed on the need to mitigate gambling harm (no arguments from me there), but even he can see that affordability checks in their current guise are not a positive, will not work to support those they were introduced for, and that the figures they will start at have not kept pace with inflation (after all, they have been at this for a few years now), but is anybody in the DCMS listening – it seems not. The BHA have weighed in via Brant Dunshea to support his view as has pretty much anyone who is important in racing, leaving the Gambling Commission looking like a runaway unelected train that needs at least steering and preferably stopping in its tracks by the government who seem to be leaving them to their own devices.    

Lastly, we covered the Chester classic trials in brief last week so it seems only fair we do the same for Lingfield and York. On Saturday we watched (yawn) Aidan O’Brien team up with Ryan Moore once again to strengthen his hand on the Epsom classics as Cameo bolted up in the Oaks trial by close to five lengths at the surprising odds of 100/30. We have to temper any excitement with the fact this is now a lowly Listed contest, but you can’t pretend she didn’t do it well and if connections are looking for a runner guaranteed to stay the mile and a half, the daughter of Wootton Bassett is not one to simply overlook. One race later we had the Derby Trial, also Listed, but this time Aidan could only manage a fifth with Isaac Newton. Willam Haggas and Tom Marquand stole the limelight with the well-backed Maltese Cross who held on by a neck from Bay Of Brilliance. He looks all set to head to Epsom next but even his trainer seems to think Constitution River (O’Brien) will be hard to beat which seems anything but a vote of confidence.

On Wednesday afternoon we had the Musidora Stakes over a mile and a quarter plus for the fillies and in 2026 it went to the well touted Legacy Link, 8/1 for the Oaks before the race and now as short as short as 4/1 with plenty of bookmakers. She travelled well throughout which is always a positive and then showed a battling quality when challenged by Felicitas, and I will certainly have her on my Epsom shortlist come race day.

On Thursday we had the Dante Stakes, last responsible for the Derby winner in 2022 and seen as a decent trial historically, even if Aidan O’Brien has said in public he prefers Chester. Eight runners were set to go to post and before the stalls opened it was Christmas Day who was the shortest price for Epsom at 12/1, but he only managed third and I doubt we see him in the Derby with stable companion Action one place ahead of him. Andrew Balding’s Item was a 33/1 chance Thursday morning but he won’t be that price now after he put this field to bed on his first start of the season, pulling close to three lengths clear at the line. I was impressed (but I tipped him elsewhere so I suppose I would be) and I am not the only one as he is now 6/1 second favourite for the Blue Riband. Whether he handles the twists and turns is the great unknown and personally I narrowly favour Constitution River but once more, we will see come the day who I finally back.   

Saturday racing

1.25pm Newbury

A proper mile and a half Group Three but with a smaller than hoped for field of only – what can you do? At first glance I saw no point in looking for an each way option with five runners, as this looks all about Kalpana – and whether she is fully wound up ahead of her return for the season. On official ratings she has a pound to find with West Wind Blows at these weights, but the Crisford runner has been drifting in the market from 5/1 all the way out to 8/1 which must surely concern his supporters, including me? His best form was a three-quarter length second to Calandagan at Meydan at level weights in March in the Dubai Sheema Classic, and with the winner rated 130 before that race, I am at a loss as to why the son of Teofilo is only rated 117? His odds are a big concern I admit, but with every chance the Andrew Balding mare will come on for the run I cannot desert him here, and if all five stand their ground and if he hits second, we make a profit – though I genuinely think he can win.

2.00pm Newbury

A mile and a quarter Listed contest for lightly raced fillies was always going to be a potential minefield, and with six lightly raced contenders, it’s all about who improves the most. Esna is the highest rated of those with a mark after her fourth to Jennifer Jane in the Pretty Polly Stakes over this trip at Newmarket where she was left with plenty to do before staying on after the front three had flown, though returning from a seven month break on ground that may have been too quick for her may explain at least part of that. A two and a quarter length fourth to Diamond Necklace in the Prix Marcel Boussac last year that form has been franked with the winner remaining unbeaten after winning the French 1000 Guineas last weekend, and at 17/2 or thereabouts despite the booking of Ryan Moore, she could also see us turn a profit if she can finish in the first two home.                     

2.35pm Newbury

The Group One Lockinge Stakes has always been a top-class contest with winners of the calibre of Palace Pier and Baaeed in recent years, though punters have taken a recent pasting with 22/1 shot Audience and 17/2 chance Lead Artist taking the last two renewals. On official ratings this looks like a closely fought contest with Notable Speech the best by 2lb, but we have all noted the form of the Charlie Appleby horses in the last few weeks which has to be a worry. The market is really tight for us punters with 3/1 Damysus, 100/30 Zeus Olympios, and 4/1 Notable Speech but would I be naive looking outside of the front three for better value? I was sorely tempted by both Jonquil (a personal favourite) and Cicero’s Gift (overpriced at 40/1) but as a betting coward I will plump for Zeus Olympios to get back to winning ways but with little confidence. Third to Opera Ballo and Field Of Gold at Sandown, trainer Karl Burke reported he would improve for the run and although yet to win at the highest level, he has only had the four starts winning the first three and may have more to offer.    

3.10pm Newbury

Here come the sprinters for the six furlong Carnarvon Stakes and a race where a poor start could ruin anyone’s chances of success. It’s a real conundrum this year I can tell you with more questions than answers but decisions have to made, whether I like it or not. Karl Burke’s Royal Fixation heads the early betting after her Cheveley Park Stakes third last September, but she hasn’t been seen yet this season and a first time up success in this field may prove a huge ask. Wise Approach is the highest rated but disappointed in fifth at Ascot and arrives with something to prove, but so does Albert Einstein. The Aidan O’Brien talking horse over the winter, he ran a stinker on his return at the Curragh in the Gladness Stakes over seven furlongs and didn’t do much better when third in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury over the same trip, but now he switches to a sprinting career. He can pull too hard so they might let him go from the off, and with two wins last year over this trip there is every chance we may see him at his best.  

3.45pm Newbury

Five winning jollies in the last decade give favourite backers plenty of hope, though looking at the early markets, I would be struggling to tell you who will head the betting, let alone who will win. Roger Varian has won two of the last eight running so he will know the exact sort needed and he relies on the hat-trick seeking Al Azd who scored at Doncaster last month over further with ease, but he has an added 7lb for that which may bring his winning run to an abrupt halt. Sintra is interesting for Andrew Balding and Hollie Doyle after getting off the mark at Ascot earlier this month and he could go well with any further improvement, but surely Port Of Spain is the call? Bought for 130,000 euros as a yearling, the son of St Marks Basilica is closely related to numerous winners including Free Wind who took the Group Two Middleton Fillies’ Stakes over this sort of trip at York in 2023, he ran six times last year, winning his maiden at Punchestown and rounding off with a five-length seventh in the Group One Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. He still holds entries for both the English and Irish Derbies and although they are 99% wishful thinking, if he is anywhere near to Group class then a mark of 103 could be childs play with first-time cheekpieces possibly the key to him giving his very best.

Something for the weekend:

West Wind Blows Each Way 1.25pm Newbury