No Constitution Hill - But Until When I wonder?

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

Sorry but time is of the essence this week so very little in the chit-chat section and more time spent on the horses racing Saturday.  Constitution Hill makes the headlines once more as he will NOT be running at Newbury on Saturday as hoped, and when we had our first chance to see just how good he really is – or isn’t. The faster ground is understandably the reason for his absence, but that suggests that barring a wet summer, we won’t be seeing him again until the Autumn when he will be approaching his 10^th birthday so expectations need to be lowered accordingly. It is a shame as he has captured the public’s attentions, but they are only looking after the horse and that’s racing, I am sorry to say.

Meanwhile Ed Crisford is going it alone in an amicable split from father Simon having been offered a top job in tax-free Dubai, and who can blame him? I have been lucky enough to visit their stables out there and no surprise when I tell you it is top class, and ash he has spent most of the winter over there it won’t be anything new and he already knows he likes the country as somewhere to put down his own training roots.

Lastly, Southwell have been given the fixtures allocated to Chelmsford in that particular racing saga, which doesn’t bode well for their chances of resuming racing anytime soon. I am not privy to the financial details (obviously) but I can only guess they need to provide certain guarantees of solvency before they have any chance of racing again.

On to the horses…

Constitution Hill "when will I see you again"

Saturday racing

1.25pm Newbury

The Nell Gwyn has long been established as a legitimate 1000 Guineas trial, but it has lost a bit of its lustre in recent years with trainers preferring Newmarket’s Craven meeting – or sending their horses straight to the first fillies’ classic. Touleen heads the early markets after winning her first two, but she did hang badly when fifth in the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket on her final start, though I admit this track should suit her better and if she has trained on, she looks the likeliest winner with Saffie Osborne in the saddle.  Dangers are everywhere, headed by Catching The Moon where the booking of Ryan Moore to ride really catches the eye, but I am still hoping class will out and the Shadwell filly will come home in front.

1.45pm Ayr

How they get to call this a Novices’ Champion Chase when it is a handicap is beyond my little brain, but they do and I still have to try to find the winner. Diamond Dealer kept on well over shorter to win by over two lengths at Kelso in a decent looking race in March and an added 3lb may not be enough to stop him following up with the Skelton string on fire. Irish raider Al Kalila looks overpriced to me for those looking for an each way alternative with first-time cheekpieces added despite a victory last time out, while Big Jon Wayne will get a big cheer if he wins or places for trainers Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore.  

2.00pm Newbury

An intriguing race for the Greenham Stakes with one big question – do we or don’t we give the Aidan O’Brien trained Albert Einstein another chance? I’m inclined to say yes, Aidan can overhype his horses as we all know but the son of Wootton Bassett simply cannot be as bad as he looked on his reappearance at the Curragh. They adda first-time hood to keep him focussed here in what looks like his last chance to justify a place in the 2000 Guineas line-up – if not its back to the drawing board at Ballydoyle with a career as a sprinter possibly next on the agenda.

2.20pm Ayr

The Scottish Champion Hurdle is next on our list, but again it’s a handicap so I am at a loss to see how the winner can be called “Champion” if he or she is getting lumps of weight from the second? With half the field running from out of the handicap (carrying more than they should do) this ought to be fairly easy to solve – if only that was true! Tellherthename wasn’t beaten that far at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle considering how far off the pace he raced early on, and I can see why he trades as favourite as I write, but it’s time to look for a bit of better (each way) value this Saturday. Captain Hugo remains a work in progress having won three of his five starts over hurdles, and as he only does just about enough at the finish, he could still be ahead of the handicapper.  Put up 6lb for his latest win at Kelso that does look punitive at first glance, but I get the feeling there is more to come from the six-year-old and today could be his day in the limelight.

2.35pm Newbury

All eyes were meant to be on Constitution Hill here but as we all know he has been pulled out because of the ground so we need to look elsewhere for the winner. Listening to what trainers tell you can be the quickest way to poverty I admit, but Karl Burke was already sweet on the chances of Convergent before Nicky Henderson’s star was pulled out, and who am I to argue? Now a four-year-old, the son of Fascinating Rock is reported to have strengthened considerably over the winter since his Munich seventh last November in the Group One Grosser Allianz Preis von Bayern where he failed to fire, and if he can repeat the level of his Prix du Conseil de Paris victory at Longchamp then he will hopefully prove impossible to beat.

3.35pm Ayr

The Scottish National deserves a look if only because it is so competitive, but I thought that about the Aintree National and we all know the favourite won that with ease. Looking back at the last 15 years and we have seen winners priced as short as 4/1 and as long as 40/1, so the betting isn’t much of a guide. 12 of the 13 winners who finished their previous race came home in the first six, 42 who pulled up on their last start have tried to win here and none have been successful, 14 of the 15 winners were aged seven to 11 inclusive, and 14 were officially rated 134 to 146 inclusive, a remarkably tight banding considering the race. None had raced in the last seven days, but 14 had raced in the last 60 days, and all had run between three and six times this season. Using those as a guide I can get the field down to an easier to handle six, though I confess I have kept Montregard in that list as 63 days since his last run seems an arbitrary cut off. I still have a sneaking suspicion Tom Lacey’s charge will go well at a price but the stats come down on the side of Isaac Des Obeaux. Trainer Paul Nicholls has won this twice and placed with one other, and her has two in here (Quebecois is the other), but jockey Sam Twiston-Davies tips the scales for me having won it twice and placed on two others. As for the horse, he has won two of his four starts over fences since wind surgery including the Midlands National at Uttoxeter over even further in mid- March, and if that race hasn’t taken too much out of him, the added 7lb from the handicapper may not be enough to stop him, though each way still seems the sensible call.

Sean’s Suggestion

Isaac Des Obeaux each way 3.35pm Ayr