Ascot , Newmarket, and Paris Longchamp Make For A Busy Weekend

All Thoughts Are My Own.

Firstly, apologies for missing out last week, I had minor eye-surgery (no sympathy expected) and sitting in front of a keyboard was not something I was up to just yet. I am still playing catch-up on all the racing news, but the noises emanating from the Labour Party conference don’t sound too good I’m afraid – we can but hope they have a calculator between them to work out the shot-term gain of taxing racing would be heavily outweighed by the losses to the sport and the jobs that go with it – maybe, just maybe, they will see some sense, but I won’t be holding my breath I’m afraid?

Elsewhere we have had some good news for a pleasant change with ITV committing to a new four-year contract to televise the main meetings to the end of 2030 with a minimum of 117 days of racing each year, and anything that brings in new fans to our sport has to be a good thing – even if I am less than enamoured with some (not all) of the commentary team  - I will leave you to take your guesses on who.

That’s your lot for the chit-chat this week – we have more racing than normal to cover so I had better get on with it!

On to the racing…..

Francis-Henri Graffard- plenty of chances on Sunday

Saturday

Ascot 2.25pm

A Group Three over a mile and a half kick starts our day, and as Al Qareem has won the last two runnings he looks a good place to start for trainer Karl Burke. He is frankly impossible to ignore for that reason alone, proven over course and distance and at this level, but he runs into some high class opposition this year and may have to settle for a place assuming Hamish is allowed to run as he is seen as ground dependent. Now a nine-year-old, and with career earnings heading toward the magic million pound mark, he is often pulled out if the ground is deemed too quick for him, but he has actually won on good to firm and should not be inconvenienced by the predicted good going here (with the possibility of rain to come). Two wins from two starts this year show how tenderly they are handling him, but if he shows up here, he still looks the likeliest winner.     

Newmarket 2.40pm

The Gosden team have won this twice each in the last decade, and that makes me look twice at outsider Spiritual, their sole entry this season, but if she wins it will be a big shock with the likes of Cinderella’s Dream and Fallen Angel in opposition. Charlie Appleby’s filly seems to need fast ground to reproduce her best form and although a good fourth in the mile and a quarter Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville last time out, her only Group one win so far was in the Falmouth Stakes over the mile at Newmarket. Karl Burke’s filly has returned to top form with a vengeance, winning the Prix Rothschild at Deauville and then the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown, both at the highest level, adding to her Irish 1000 Guineas victory of 2024. She seems less ground dependent than her market rival, and for that reason alone she gets my vote here.

Ascot 3.00pm

The last ten runnings have seen 10 different trainers and 10 different jockeys successful which tells me nothing other than how competitive it must be, even for a Group Three. Apollo Won took this event last season and showed signs of a return to form in second last time out, while Elmonjed had a bit left to call upon if needed when winning out at York and is 1lb better off with third placed Prince Of India. I do think Marco Botti’s colt looks a huge danger with Jamie Spencer the ideal pilot for a hold-up horse, but the form is the form and it’s the Willam Haggas trained gelding who ought to come home in front with Cieren Fallon tasked with the steering.

Ascot 3.35pm

I am really getting into the idea of profiling races, which is basically looking at past results for patterns, whittling down the runners accordingly – and then praying that we can find the winner! I will try to keep it brief (ish) but I do like to let you know my train of thought, so, in the last 15 years (14 runnings) the facts that leap off the page are as follows: 13 winners priced at 25/1 or shorter, 12 finished in the first eight on their previous start, 13 were aged six or younger, 13 were officially rated 85 or higher, all 14 were rated 108 or lower and 13 ran in the last 60 days. Using those to cut through the final field (though I have to use current odds not starting price – you have been warned), and we end up with a long shortlist of eight – not good enough and I need to do more. My next port of call is the trainer record in this race, and three left on the list have won it before – leaving us with Great Acclaim, Balmacara, Tarkhan, and Purosangue. The first named appears to be the best of the Eve Johnson Houghton duo (she has three entered but only two are on my shortlist) with Charlie Bishop in the saddle, and at 13/2 he looks worthy of a small each way bet if nothing more.  

Sunday

Longchamp 12.40pm

Before we all log in to our various betting accounts, French racing does come with a wealth warning – their races can be run at a crawl before a sprint finish over almost any distance, and there is no guarantee that will suit some or all our the “foreign” raiders so do cut your bet size accordingly. Add in a mile on soft ground and that will also find out some of them but hopefully not Diamond Necklace, who looks a filly with immense potential. She will need to improve again to see off the likes of Green Spirit and Ozone, but she was so impressive last time out that I cannot bet against her here. A winner first time out at the Curragh she was moved up to Listed class at Leopardstown for her second start where she showed signs of her inexperience before putting her head down to run in strongly to win going away by over two lengths. There is clearly improvement to come from the 1.7 million Euro daughter of St Mark’s Basilica, and if she hands the softer ground then we will see how good she really is here.  

Longchamp 1.15pm

In a race won by Camille Pissarro last year, who went on to win the Prix du Jockey Club this season, the winner in 2025 will no doubt rocket their way up the betting for the same race next year, and perhaps the Epsom Derby as well. Puerto Rico represents Aidan O’Brien this year after winning the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster and he can go well, but I get the feeling this will go to a home-trained winner. Nighttime goes from strength to strength for Christopher Head and it will be interesting to see the tactical battle between Maxime Guyon and Mickael Barzalona who rides the exciting Rayif. Two wins from two starts in the colours of the Aga Khan Studs include an impressive victory in the Group Three Prix Francois Boutin at Deauville over this trip in August, and if he builds on that here, he might come home in front for the third time.

Longchamp 1.50pm

Speed speed and more speed for one of the biggest five -furlong sprints of the year, but once again soft ground will not suit all of these, and common sense suggests we look for a horse who is proven under such conditions. “Foreign” raiders have won nine of the last 10 runnings of this but once again, I think the softer ground may see the prize stay at home. Two-year-olds can win this as we last saw with The Platinum Queen in 2022 thanks to their age allowance of 18lb, and I am hoping we see a huge (each way) run from Afjan. A son of Mehmas with five starts and two victories for owners Al Shaaqab Racing, he was last seen winning the Group Three Prix d’Arenberg over course and distance on very soft ground in late August, scoring by a nose under Christophe Soumillon, who is replaced by Alexis Pouchin here thanks to the light weight needed from the saddle. He does need a step up on that on the form book but the weight allowance could be key, with a fast run five on soft ground hopefully playing to his strengths.   

Longchamp 3.05pm

At the risk of being controversial, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is seen as the biggest Flat race of the year over middle distances, but I beg to differ – it is invariably run on soft ground, and at the end of a long hard season so are we really pitching the best against the best under optimum conditions to crown a true champion – I beg to differ. I wish Giavellotto the best of luck for the Botti’s but I am not convinced he will be at his best on this going, and I have the utmost respect for favourite Minnie Hawk who arrives unbeaten since finishing second on her debut, with wins in the Oaks, the Irish Oaks, and the Yorkshire Oaks on her last three starts. 7/2 is just too skinny for my liking in a field this strong, while the Japanese have a strong hand as they look to break their duck with all three in with chances. Although sorely tempted by Los Angeles, who has been aimed at this all season and is too big at 33/1, I’ll take an each way chance on Alohi Alii, the outsider of the Japanese trio but an impressive winner of the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano in his prep race. He arrived in France months ago (that win was in August) to give him added time to acclimatise, Christophe Lemaire rides and is in my opinion one of the best jockeys in the world today, has proved he can take to the softer ground, and ticks too many boxes for me to ignore at 18/1 for a place at least.

Longchamp 4.25pm

In a race won by British raiders from 2017 to 2022 inclusive we have to have high hopes once more, with More Thunder heading the early betting for William Haggas, who taken this prize three times in the last seven years with One Master, and clearly knows the sort needed. Last time out the son of Night Of Thunder won the Hungerford Stakes (Group Two) on good to firm ground at Newbury in August, but he has won over further on good to soft which will encourage his supporters. In my view and at a bigger price, Andre Fabre’s Sajir has the better form after winning the Group One Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville easily enough last time out, with Jubilee Stakes winer Lazzat over a length adrift, and that form looks the stronger to me. He has won on soft and very soft ground which is a bonus with more rain a possibility by race time, and with Oisin Murphy in the saddle once more he has a solid each way chance at odds of 6/1 as I write.

Sean’s suggestion:

Sajir each way 4.25pm Longchamp Sunday