Constitution Hill Arguments, More From The Middle-East, and Some Winners (Hopefully).

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(except the podcast which is free to view here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nr6fRJ1ZHZ4

The fact that Southwell racecourse somehow found a total prize fund of £40,000 for the 7.30pm Friday evening has caused a bit of upset with some, and perhaps understandably so when you consider the average prize money there is between £5000 and £10,000. The race seems to have been specifically framed to get a run on the Flat into 2023 Champion Hurdle winner Constitution Hill before final decisions are made ahead of Cheltenham next month. Trainer Charlie Johnston was one who seems less impressed with the sudden boost in prize money compared to the usual meagre pickings, but he remained happy enough to enter a horse in the same race (no longer running) and I doubt he would have complained too much had he reaped the dividends. As I write the inflated prize money has attracted a large field to the extent that Nicky Henderson’s popular gelding may not even get a run (update – he has sneaked in) , and I am sorry but although I can see the argument, I have long argued that in the more successful racing jurisdictions the horses are the stars, and if a sponsor can be found (as in this case), then that is all good for racing.

As you may have read, I have only just got back from a mini racing tour of the Middle East, starting in Abu Dhabi and ending on Saturday in Saudi Arabia. Both are looking to break through to become major racing jurisdictions, and both venues attracted quality fields thank to large prize money (is there a pattern emerging this week)? I was caught off guard in Abu Dhabi when the tannoy announced the betting for each race (a first in the UAE for me) with the concept of gambling seemingly opening up – after all, the powers that be are far from naïve, they know people are betting via the black market or using a VPN, and feel (quite rightly) entitled to their piece of the pie. We had a bookmaker on course, not taking bets in cash but accepting new sign-ups, and I am told that, with the exception of Dubai, they have a licence for the whole of the UAE. Personally, it feels like a matter of time before this opens up even further, with a large population of ex-pats from around the world eager to lose their money. Abu Dhabi had a great atmosphere though their timing of race day could have been better (other events including household names in tennis and music were in direct opposition), but they are at the beginning of a steep learning curve and will make sure that does not happen again. Saudi was very different, with the racing a big step up – and the atmosphere very different. No alcohol possibly stopped too may ex-pat partygoers seeing it as an option, but the true racing fans were there to see the best in action., though I was personally glad I could not get a bet on as I found just TWO winners on the entire card, and both of those were favourites. Comparing form from different continents isn’t easy believe me, but it was great fun and a reminder that having a bet is part of the experience – but not the be all and end all of the sport.         

While I was in Saudi, I did get invited to the Asian Racing Conference but I see little I could contribute to, so I awaited the feedback. To my surprise, there was talk of racing being at a crossroads worldwide, with courses closing (Singapore and Macau for examples) and others under threat (Kempton and Nottingham perhaps). Technology seemed to be seen as the way forward but I still suspect we are missing a trick – making racing popular again and the courses profitable must be the only sustainable way forward and they may need some serious changes. The example above of Constitution Hill attracting a crowd needs expanding on if we want to get the sport adored by the next generation. If I was in change (never going to happen) I would make horses have to run in a specific list of qualifiers to run at the likes of Cheltenham Aintree, Royal Ascot or Glorious Goodwood. Force them to race in a specific list of “win and you’re in” contests earlier in the season, let’s get them racing against each other throughout the year, put the product in front of audiences who can book their tickets way in advance knowing they will get good fields of household names to watch on the day, and, dare I say it, switch venues from year to year to try and give every course a piece of the pie. Next up, the much belittled post-racing concerts, sometimes tribute bands, sometimes the real McCoy. I have been racing and watched as the last race finishes and the 500 racegoers troop out, while thousands of music fans wander in. Shut the gate and no more entries after the second last race, give them a free £1 bet or a free to enter quadcast to £1 – basically encourage them to watch at least one race – some will win, most will lose, but you are putting the racing product in front of them, almost “making” then watch a live race, and some will enjoy it and come back which is more than happens at present. Bottom line is racing is about so much more than betting, integral as it is to the sport’s finances, but if people don’t see it how can they know if they like it or not – needs must when the devil drives?     

On to the racing...

Saturday racing

1.25pm Lingfield

A Listed sprint on the all-weather may not be everybody’s cup of tea, but the money has attracted a decent field though be warned, we have only seen a single winning favourite in the last 10 runnings with 10 different trainers as well. Diligent Harry drops back in trip a furlong after dead-heating here in the Listed Kachy Stakes in late January, and as that was his first start since September he can only improve. He heads the market at present but has a record of two out of six over five furlongs and I will take a chance on Leovanni who looks to get his career back on track for trainer Karl Burke. She started her racing life with wins at Nottingham and then in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, but she has gone off the boil ever since and has clearly has her issues with just the one start last year when fourth in the Achilles Stakes at Haydock, but they obviously feel she has more to offer to even keep her in training. She gets 8lb from the current favourite which is a bonus and as long as she is fit enough, she may well be good enough as well.

1.45pm Kempton

Mambonumberfive danced his way to success in the Adonis Hurdle last year but trainer Ben Pauling is not represented here so we need to look elsewhere. Paul Nicholls and Alan King have won this three times each in the last decade and only Paul is represented here with Falls Of Acharn, a winner on his hurdling bow at Musselburgh and a four length last of six at the same track last time out. He clearly needs to do better than that to win this and you can see why Dan Skelton’s Precious Man trades a fraction of odds-on after winning here by over four lengths on his first start following wind-surgery. He should win this to be fair, but where is the fun in that, and I’ll risk a quid or two on Fantasy World at a big price instead. Nicky Henderson’s four-year-old was sent off at silly odds (30/100) at Musselburgh last week before finishing a bitterly disappointing fourth after weakening two out, but it’s a big surprise to see him sent back to the track this quickly. Nicky clearly wants to get experience into him and after costing 600,000gns at the sales from Andrew Balding as a Listed winner rated 103 on the Flat, he needs to start paying connections back and a win here would be a start.  

2.00pm Lingfield

A mile and a quarter on the polytrack for the Winter Derby sees an interesting field of five runners, with the Gosdens responsible for four of the last 10 winners, and Robert Havlin riding two of them. They have a couple entered here in favourite Chancellor (Havlin) and Nebras (Ryan Moore) with the first named winning on his return at Southwell and his stable companion winning his last two in November and December last year. Both can go well, but Boiling Point is rated the best horse in the race for Karl Burke who won this race with Royal Champion in the same colours. He went on to land a Group One in Saudi Arabia last Saturday and I doubt the five-year-old son of Too Darn Hot is good enough to follow that sort of path, but he has won a Listed race at Newmarket and placed twice in Group Three company, making him the value call for me this afternoon.      

2.25pm Kempton

That man Paul Nicholls has made the Pendil Novices’ Chase his own over the years with six of the last nine winners, and he is represented in 2026 by Go West in a disappointing turnout of four runners. He did win last time out at Musselburgh for his second win from four starts over fences, but will need to take a step forward to get the better of the odds-on Jax Junior. Lucy Wadham’s seven-year-old also has a two out of two record over fences, but looked a better animal after wind surgery when hacking up at Sandown last month. Those fences take some jumping and if he takes the smallest of steps forward, I can’t oppose him (or back him at that price) here.

2.43pm Newcastle (Eider Chase)

A big field handicap next to get my teeth into, and a look at the last 15 years (13 runnings) shows me the following facts: All those who completed on their last start came home in the first six, all were aged seven to 11 inclusive, all were priced at 18/1 or shorter at the off, all were officially rated 117 or higher, none were rated above 140, all had raced in the last 60 days, and all had run between two and six times this season. Using those historical facts to put a line though some of the contenders, sadly only lose a few so we move on, and I note eight of the nine winners who completed last time out (89%) had come home in the first three, so I can use that to lose five more but of those left, my next to “steps” are their handicap marks and the trainers of previous winners. Knockanore won this in 2024 so he heads the trainer list accordingly, but his highest winning mark was only 1lb lower than he suffers here, while Fortunate Man races off 4lb higher than his best winning rating – and has never raced beyond three and a half miles (when second at Windsor last January). It really is a conundrum between the two, but the O’Neill’s horse may have more to offer over this trip and at the age of seven, there is room for more improvement.

3.00pm Kempton

The betting looks likely to be hugely significant ahead of the Dovecot Novices’ Hurdle over two miles with only two winning favourites in the last 10 years, but no winners priced bigger than 6/1, so we need to be looking in that area of the market. That cuts it down significantly with just Double Measure (4/1) and Klub De Reve (9/2) fitting that scenario. Both have solid chances but I get the feeling this race is far more competitive as it is this year, and I will step up a fraction for an each way bet on Mustang Du Breuil who arrives unbeaten after wins at Auteuil for trainer Giada Menato in France and then by three and a half furlongs at Doncaster on his first run for Nicky Henderson in the J P McManus colours. He wasn’t really tested that day and this does represent a tougher assignment, but he looked to have a touch of class about him, and at 8/1 or thereabouts, I can sensibly back him each way.

Racing demystified – the different sexes and how they affect racing

An odd one this week but relevant, nonetheless. The current sexes for horses are colts, geldings, horses, fillies, and mares. Some races are restricted (for example the Oaks and the 1000 Guineas are only open to three-year-old fillies) others do not allow geldings (like the Arc de Triomphe), but the vast majority of races accept pretty much anyone! The fairer sex is generally considered the weaker of the two, and that often means they get a sex allowance. As an example, in the Adonis Hurdle covered earlier, any filly would get 7lb from her male rivals, while in the Hever Sprint at Lingfield (1.25pm) the fillies get 5lb. In most if not all handicaps there are no sex allowances. From a punting perspective, every now and then a physically dominant filly or mare can hold her own on level terms with her male counterpart, and when they are put into races where they get an allowance, we could be on to a winner. For those with long memories, Enable springs to mind as she took on the very best colts on offer and always held her own, making the most of her filly or mare’s allowance to win the Arc by a short neck in 2018 where her 3lb mares’ allowance could well have made all the difference.     

Something for the weekend:

Mustang Du Breuil Each Way 3.00pm Kempton