Derby Fall Out, The Good The Bad - And The Worst!

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(except the podcast linked here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65kGcNZTELo which includes the legendary Ron Robinson – please click even if it’s only for a laugh at our expense).

It’s been a very strange week as you will soon read below, but I felt we should start with some good news and have a closer look at the winners of both the Epsom Oaks and the Derby.  

On Friday afternoon you would have to be blind to not be taken by the Oaks win of Joseph O’Brien’s Thundering On who absolutely ran away with the fillies’ classic by an official five lengths – but in no way was that a fair assessment of her superiority whatever the formbook will say for the rest of time. Held up in last place by the excellent Dylan Browne McMonagle, she started her move at the two furlong pole when she could be seen to be hacking away in a canter before sweeping past her hard ridden rivals, merely needing to be shaken up to do so. The softer ground will quite rightly see some questioning the value of the form, but as a daughter of Frankel she could or even should be better on a quicker surface, and I for one am looking forward to seeing her for the rest of the season and beyond with every chance she could be the next Enable if kept in training long enough to prove it.   

The Derby on Saturday has almost been forgotten in all the post-race “noise” (see below), but that seems grossly unfair on Christmas Day who landed yet another classic for Aidan O’Brien. No he wasn’t as impressive as the Oaks winner by any stretch of the imagination, and the supposed Ballydoyle second string, but what happened to the favourite and others was not his fault and he could do no more than win by close to three lengths after sitting on or near the pace throughout in atrocious conditions. I won’t pretend I feel this was a vintage renewal (far from it) but the previously unbeaten Item had every chance before finishing  ninth, and runner-up Maltese Cross had won the Lingfield Derby Trial and it seems only fair to give the winner a chance to prove his worth over the rest of the season, though it does look pretty likely the soft going was in his favour and faster summer ground could and should find him out.

On the subject on everybody in racings lips – should Derby favourite Benvenuto Cellini have been declared a non-runner – or not? He did have his foot on the stall ledge as the gates opened and did lose a bit of ground I agree – but horses are inconvenienced at the start on a daily basis and without the same result. In my view, for what it’s worth, the only question that really needs answering is when does responsibility transfer from the BHA (stalls, starter, stalls handler etc), and on to the jockey and the horse – that would clarify everything. To me, if the starter knew he was on three legs then he shouldn’t have let them go (I am not suggesting that is the case by the way), or if the stalls handlers are responsible for making sure all is well then we have a problem (again, I do not believe that is the case) – but after that it’s a horse/jockey issue as is timing the jump at the start and race tactics. What has caused uproar on social media is the fact that Ryan Moore was asked for race tactics and told the stewards he had planned to race handily from the off –  that should have nothing to do with the decision whatsoever, not in my book, and as instructions aren’t to my knowledge recorded before a race, that opens a big can of worms regarding integrity. Grey areas within the rules may need tightening in future before we see non-runners called for left right and centre, and what would have happened had he finished second?  With £400,000 for the runner-up connections would not want him declared a non-runner, but what about the punters – same start, same potential to be called a non-runner – but if he had placed the win bets all go in the bin – someone needs to explain that to me! Meanwhile even sone of those who got their money back are being honest enough to suggest the rule isn’t right, while those getting a 25p in the £ Rule 4 deduction after picking the 7/1 winner are rightly miffed on what was supposed to be the biggest race of the season. As an update (things never stand still in this game), we had a horse at Yarmouth rear up in the stalls on Thursday afternoon, losing any chance and unseating jockey Christian Howarth. If the rule is supposed to be used to protect punters then surely they had no run for their money here, so the contradictory application of said rules seems open to question, and that is me being ultra-polite, while reiterating my idea that a line in the sand needs to be drawn for when the BHA (racing)  re responsible – and when that responsibility transfers to horse and jockey, be that a Group One or a lesser grade contest.  

Sadly, that dovetails neatly into the gradual decline of the Derby as a national spectacle with 28,500 the official figure given out after Saturday. The weather certainly didn’t help (thanks for nothing Mother Nature), and you had to be a battle hardened racegoer to stand around in horrendous driving rain but looking back (it’s a wonderful thing Google), and in the 1980s the crowd were estimated at 100,000 to 150,000.  In 1993 it was 103,000, and in 1995 some bright spark came up with the idea of switching it from a Wednesday to a Saturday. 53,177 in 2001, 35,000 in 2010 – that particular experiment clearly didn’t work and perhaps needs reversing if it isn’t too late. Long gone are the days of mid-week mayhem, a once a year spectacle where huge chunks of the working population happily took a day off without a second thought and some are now saying it is now just another Saturday racecard and nothing particularly special. I may be old fashioned (actually, there is no maybe about it), but we/they need to find a way to get it back to the centre of public attention though whether anyone will be brave enough to try a Wednesday again – I won’t hold my breath.

My last subject this week is entitled loyalty or lunacy and by the time this goes out I will have watched the run of City Of Kings in the 3.30pm at Newbury on Thursday afternoon. A beautifully bred son of Kingman out of Group Two winner Horseplay (by Cape Cross), he was bought for 350,000 gns as a yearling by Godolphin – back in 2021. Three races for Charlie Appleby included a win at Ascot as a two-year-old before he signed off with a sixth in a Conditions Stakes at Newmarket as a three-year-old in 2023 – and he hasn’t been seen in anger since. Gelded the day after his last run, he was moved on to Osama Refei in December 2024 after disappearing for 20 months and then sold on to his current owners in March 2024 for approximately £28,000. Officially moved to Ian Williams in May this year according to the Racing Post (though he actually moved in May 2025 according to the Ian Williams website), he has been dropped from a rating of 89 in April 2023 to 80 at Newbury (without even running), and it will be interesting to see on Thursday afternoon whether or not he sees any market support, though a win after 1150 days off the track looks a huge ask. Personally, in the current world where the £ is all anyone seems to care about I see this as a potential fairytale story, and I wish owners Midtech, who have owned plenty of winners (Night Breeze and Golden Maverick spring to mind) the very best of luck and a reward for their patience and loyalty to the horse. (*Update* - sent off at odds of 100/1 before finishing eleventh, beaten over 15 lengths after pulling too hard).

Saturday racing

Ryan Moore - In The Headlines

2.42pm Sandown

One of the few Listed races this Saturday and one with 10 different trainers successful over the last decade – and 10 different jockeys! Only one of those winners returned at a double figure price, and with only three winning favourites, the head of the market seems a good place to start. Charlie Appleby trains the two highest rated here according to the handicapper, and with Words Of Truth having to give 5lb to stable companion Military Code, they are equally matched on paper. It looks likely to prove a close run thing, but I have been swayed toward the son of Lope De Vega because he won the Mill Reef Stakes (over a furlong further) on good to soft ground, suggesting he has the better chance of handling these conditions. I was concerned about the drop back to five furlongs but it will feel like six or more if the rains keep falling, and I just have a niggling feeling that he is the classiest horse in the line-up.   

3.00pm York

The weather may have a huge influence here with a mile and three quarters taking some getting regardless, and even more so if the word soft appears in the going description. William Haggas has won three of the last nine runnings and Hughie Morrison two, but neither are represented here so back to the drawing board! Al Qareem won this last year carrying a penalty and suffers the same problems now, but what we do know is he has won on good to soft and soft ground, so no issues for him with the underfoot conditions.  He beat the reopposing Mount Atlas at Musselburgh on his return for the season before finishing fifth to Jan Brueghel at Chester (Mount Atlas in front of him in second), and it is hard to make the call between them now. It really is a toss of a coin but with his course and distance victories I will side with Karl Burke’s runner – but only just.

3.17pm Sandown

With so few top-class races in the lead up to Royal Ascot the lucky pin has landed on this Class Two handicap so wish me luck, I’ll need it. Winners at up to 20/1 (2023) suggest this one mile event won’t be as easy as the betting suggests (no winning favourite since back in 2017) but we will persevere regardless. Beagle Bay heads the early betting after winning by four lengths at Yarmouth, but that as a Class Four and this is a Class Two – and he has been put up 9lb as well. He has only had four starts so he could have loads of room for improvement, but at 11/4 as I wrote he looks too skinny for me. Raammee is another to consider after winning both starts as a three-year-old and although fourth on his return at Sandown, he ran out of puff close home with the stiff uphill finish and lack of a recent run taking their toll. With the Roger Varian yard in great form, he can go well at 9/2, but the one I think could also go well at a price is Joolianoss, a winner at Ascot over the straight mile last time out despite swerving at the start and then struggling to get a clear run. He has been upped 5lb for that but Toby Moore’s claim negates the majority of his weight rise, and at 16/1 I will be having a little each way play in the hope the going remains on the good side.

3.35pm York

Something speedy is next on the list with another Class Two handicap, but this time over the trip of six furlongs where once again we need to be concerned by the weather – a low draw seems advantageous in general, but when it turns soft, high often have the edge. The fact that as I wrote they go 6/1 the field immediately tells us just how competitive this is, so it’s time to revert to the dreaded statistics over the last 10 years. Eight of the 10 finished in the first five on their previous outing which, is borne out in 2026, loses us nine of the 22 currently declared, while all were priced at 25/1 or shorter at the off - with eight at 16/1 or lower. That loses two more, while all had raced in the last 60 days (one more gone), and nine had raced in the last 30 days, and suddenly we are down to a shortlist of six. None had raced more than four times in the current season (one more gone), and none have been officially rated higher than 102 (another falls by the wayside). Of the four I am now left with (Red Spells Danger, First Legion, Ruby’s Angel, and Golden Brown), I quite like the look of the last named who is making his handicap debut. Trainer Ed Walker has his horses running to form including a 24% strike rate in the last two weeks, he kept on well to win at Salisbury showing a willing attitude, and best of all he was second on ground with cut in it in Listed class at Redcar last year, suggesting a Class Two handicap like this could be within his remit.

Sean’s Suggestion:

Words Of Truth 2.42pm Sandown