Everyone's A Winner Baby (Maybe).

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(with Ron Robinson of Postracing.co.uk hosting me on his podcast/youtube here https://youtu.be/UhnuulifXnU)

I promised myself we would try to find some good news this week and the number one on that particular list has to be the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes from Ascot this weekend, and the future rise in prize money. Now we all appreciate we are scraping around at the bottom end with Class Sixes worth pennies on a daily basis, but Saturday’s race is worth (wait for it) £2,000,000 in total with £1,134,200 to the winner this year, and it is going up but another £500,000 for next year. I may be one of the first to criticise when necessary but hats off to The Jockey Club for investing some of their profits into prize money for one of their flagship contests, and here’s hoping the powers that be can find a way to trickle some of that downstream to the sort of races, and horses the likes of you and I might have shares in can get competitive.

Next up is good news for me as I have stood down (voluntarily) as chair of the Horseracing Bettors Forum (HBF) to be replaced by the excellent David Williams. My time was up as I felt mentally exhausted with trying to persuade the racing industry that punters (or as I like to call them customers) need looking after for the good of the sport as much as anything else, often to deaf ears. My successor is far calmer than I am and less likely to put backs up unlike little old me, and although a different line of approach, mine hasn’t worked as well as I would have liked so a new approach could be long overdue. I remain on board as a consultant but will try my hardest not to stick my big nose in too often and wish them all the best for the future as we ALL need to pull together to get this sport back to where it belongs.

Slightly more importantly and the news officially broke on Wednesday morning that we have a new Chair of the British Horseracing Authority starting 1^st of October, thigh the fact that it leaked to the Racing Post before then is the cause of some concern. I won’t pretend I know Simon Cox, but looking at his CV he could be a good fit with plenty of horseracing interests including (long list coming up) as Chair of the BHA Jump Pattern Committee, trustee at the Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association, former board member at the PJA (Professional Jockeys Association), a member of the High Quality Horse Group, and a long term owner and breeder, so he does know his racing which is a positive. Described as a Master Brewer by profession he could stand out like a sore thumb here – have we finally got someone in charge who actually can organise a piss up in a brewery (sorry all, I couldn’t resist)? On a more serious note, I would love to know whether he applied last time and was overlooked for Lord Allen (and if so why), or if he didn’t apply, in which case, why not? Whatever the future holds I genuinely wish him the best of luck in a difficult role and if he should read this (you never know) then I implore him to reach out to the HBF to make sure the punter is included in any conversations.

It looks like an “is he isn’t he” question with regard to Amo Racing. One minute the Daily Mail is telling us David Egan has quit as retained jockey, the next that is being denied, though they will adopt a “best rider available” policy for the big races – whatever that translates as. When I had this conversation down the pub last night, I was asked why there was even such a thing as retained riders, so a brief explanation may help. Generally speaking (every contract will be different), the basic idea as a big time owner is that I’d like to have a retained jockey that is paid per annum to be on standby to ride my horses (I can dream). A freelance jockey gets paid per ride plus a percentage of prize money, so to retain a jockey you need to pay them an annual sum to be on call for what may be a single ride at the other end of the county – potentially missing out on the riding fee for up to nine races elsewhere, though the top jockeys get the best of both worlds with their agents looking to get them rides in other races wherever they may be.

Finally, and it’s up to date news for a change, and what do we all think of Rossa Ryan’s ride on 14/1 shot Thundering Home at Sandown on Thursday – it has certainly caused an explosion on social media! For those living on a desert island, the James Horton trained juvenile who was having his third race was sent a long way clear in the seven furlong maiden before Zero Error under Jamie Spencer pounced late on to win by a nose. Eased down when his jockey thought the race was in the bag, Rossa has now received a whopping 28 day ban for “failing to take all reasonable and permissible measures to obtain the best possible placing on a horse who would have finished first”, but I am one of the (very) few who thinks that’s a bit harsh. Sadly I am yet to read comments from the horse’s trainer which would be interesting but I do believe one thing – the only people who don’t make mistakes are the ones who don’t do any work! Hands up anyone who hasn’t made an error of judgement in their day job – the difference is I get to retype this and correct (most) spelling errors – jockeys are in the headlights and do not get that luxury. Personally, and those who backed him will vehemently disagree with me, I do not think it was deliberate (he started riding again once he realised the other horse was bearing down on him but it was too late by then), and 28 days seems as if he was part of some major conspiracy which I am sure is not the case. Jockeys need to balance the desire and need to win with looking after the horse (imagine his mark if he is sent into nurseries if he had won by too far), and in this case human error crept in. I suspect he will appeal and think his ban could be reduced accordingly, yes he does deserve punishing but does the penalty really fit the crime?       

On to the racing…

Saturday Racing

Ascot 1.45pm

With three winning favourites in the last four runnings including Fitzella (9/4) for Hugo Palmer last year it makes sense to look at or near the head of the early market in our hunt for the winner. That leads us straight to either Albany Stakes fourth Dark Issue or Queen Mary sixth Alta Regina and out of the two I prefer the last named who as a daughter of Sioux Nation is bred to get better over this trip rather than the five furlongs, she faced at Royal Ascot. Miss Kodi won her sole start by seven lengths and warrants consideration but that was on a softer surface so we have zero evidence she will act on the quicker turf anticipated here, and I will step forward with an each way punt on Nuit d’Eclair at a double figure price. We are talking more about potential than the bare form, but the 280,000 guineas yearling did little wrong on her one start at Newbury when only needing to be pushed out for a length success. She currently holds a Lowther Stakes entry at York (Group One) suggesting they think a bit of the daughter of Night Of Thunder, and if that is the case she could yet win this.

York 2.00pm

I fancied another “stats dash” this weekend so I have thrown in a fiendish handicap once more, though it’s a tricky one to solve as a six furlong sprint. Looking back at past runnings and I have quickly noted (trying to keep it short for your benefit) that in the last 15 years (16 winners so I am guessing at a dead heat) we have seen only one winner priced bigger than 14/1, only one who came home first on their previous start (that surprised me), 15 winners aged four to six inclusive, and none officially rated lower than 87 or higher than 105. Amazingly 15 of the 16 came from the first seven in the betting, and the same number had last raced with 60 days, and if we use those as a starting point we get down to a surprising shortlist of only four -   Pocklington, Stratusnine, Addison Grey, and Air Force One. Looking at the trainers of those horses and none of them have and the winner yet, but at least Hugo Palmer has had a place from his only previous runner, and that gives the vote to Stratusnine. Third off this mark and beaten less than a length at Chester from the nine stall which is far from a bonus box, he does need a career best to take this but the booking of James Doyle to ride catches the eye and a clear run should see him in the first three home.

Ascot 2.20pm

Three and four year olds have dominated this in recent years and the same may happen here with Touleen currently trading at a fraction of odds-on. Without a win this season she has finished second on two of her three starts, sandwiching a sixth in the 1000 Guineas, but it’s her latest run that makes her hard to oppose. Racing from off the pace under Saffie Osborne in the Group One Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot she failed to find a clear run from the two furlong pole and was then hampered before running on well to finish a length and a half second to Precise, who arrived as the Irish 1000 Guineas winner. That form looks rock solid (True Love was a neck behind her despite a better rub of the green and she won the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket) and dropped to this Group Three contest even her current odds look good value.

York 2.35pm

With just the one winning jolly since 2017 this may not be quite as simple to solve as it looks at first glance, though if the betting is to be taken at face value, then Item is our likeliest winner. Arriving at the Derby unbeaten and strongly fancied by the Andrew Balding team, a combination of soft ground and the mile and a half looked too much for him as he loomed up at the two furlong pole before weakening rapidly to be beaten 26 lengths in ninth after Colin Keane eased off once his chance had gone. That kindness could be repaid here back at a mile and a quarter on a faster surface, though he does have a decent field to get the better of. Royal Champion finished fourth in the QEII Cup at Sha Tin in Hong Kong which is top form, though I suspect he may be better off pot hunting abroad and the sooner the better, while Damysus is better off at this trip than the mile he faced in the Queen Anne Stakes and is another to at least consider.

Ascot 3.35pm

A Group One with over a million pounds to the winner has unsurprisingly attracted a top-class field with runners due from France, Ireland, Japan, and of course the UK home team. Although we have nine runners, four of those are trained by Aidan O’Brien with Benvenuto Cellini, the controversial Derby non-runner and Irish Derby winner the stable number one with Ryan Moore in the saddle. As a three-year-old he gets 11lb from his elders, and on official ratings that makes him the equal of favourite Calandagan at the weights. Personally, I really hope Francis-Henri Graffard’s five-year-old wins this as that can only encourage connections to have a repeat tilt at the Japan Cup (where he broke the course record last year) and gives me the excuse needed to head back to Tokyo. As you can imagine I have plenty of connections in Japan and they remain convinced that Masquerade Ball is the best horse of a generation and although he places more often than he wins, his form is out of the top drawer. The winner of the Tenno Sho at Tokyo last November, he has since finished second to Calandagan in the Japan Cup and then second again to Romantic Warrior in the QEII Cup but he is 5lb worse off with his Tokyo conqueror and much as I think he may have more to offer, the formbook tells me he cannot win (famous last words).     

Sean’s Suggestion:

Item win 2.35pm York