Sunnier Venues, Happy Retirement - And A Winner Or Two

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(with Ron Robinson of Postracing.co.uk hosting me on his podcast/youtube here https://youtu.be/GrB7US_HhUI)

Good morning (or afternoon) everybody, I am (almost) back to full strength after a week away in South Africa and I am going to start there – but not with their racing. We all know racing here in the UK is not in the rudest of health, and that’s putting it politely, but what can we (or the powers that be) do about it?

As I have mentioned elsewhere, and hard to believe as it is, a bookmaker rode to the rescue in Durban (and elsewhere), basically bailing out the sport in return for most of the control - scary stuff but when it’s a last resort option you take what you can get. In simple terms (so I can understand it), they are working the way bookmakers here used to – take a percentage out of the pot on all races but build that pot so their income grows exponentially.

To that end they now own racecourses (as far as I can tell), and although there is no monopoly (they actually encourage competition), Hollywoodbets are becoming the major player in the country and building their market share accordingly. In return they have smartened up the courses and will continue to do so, invested in the training centres, and whacked up prize money to the delight of most if not all in the sport.

Talking to their trainers they can see us heading the same way long term, though how we navigate the tricky waters of so many racecourses with two powerful owners (ARC and the Jockey Club) will make life difficult – as will finding a bookmaker looking to the future of the sport and not just the immediate dividends for their shareholders as they slowly strangle the golden goose to death, though much as I am yet to meet a bookmaker I think we can trust with the future of our sport, it could yet be the only way forward.

Next up, and yes, I am talking through my pocket, why oh why do I ever have a bet in a sprint, top class or handicap? Taking nothing away from Commanche Brave, who comfortably won the July Cup at Newmarket at odds of 11/1, I still have to ask how? In his previous race he had finished behind Almeraq and Satono Reve, at Ascot so he turned the form around with not one but two of his recent rivals, though to be fair (with hindsight) he didn’t get the best of runs that day.

Of course, I understand a fraction of a second equates to enough to win or lose a race over sprinting trips, I am just less convinced that “luck” is built into the process, so please feel free to make me think twice before I lose any more money in a sprint race when I don’t have to!

Next up (and I will keep it brief) and it appears the Common’s CMSC (Culture Media and Sports Committee) have asked the Gambling Commission requesting answers to a series of questions regarding the dreaded affordability checks.

Everyone knows the GC (don’t you just love acronyms) is invariably reluctant to release the statistics they base their decisions on, but after a lot of pressure from racing including the outspoken (but invariably correct) John Gosden, they may finally be held to account.

What I am (personally) concerned about is racings obsession with affordability checks being the one and only reason betting turnover is down and decreasing – while failing to grasp the nettle that account closures and ridiculous restrictions are going on in huge quantities as bookmakers attempt to protect their bottom line?

I call it Bookmakers Hierarchy of Greed (as opposed to Maslow’s Hierarchy of need), a fictional pyramid where if affordability checks take out the biggest losers from the bottom, then bookmakers have to take out any and all winners higher up to even things out – not good enough in my view and something the powers that be need to take very seriously.

Lastly, it would appear Peter Savill, one time head of the BHB, has failed in his bid to be the new chair of the BHA (see acronyms comment earlier).

I cannot pretend I am surprised as he can come over as a bit of a loose cannon, and the sad truth is even if he had taken over the current set up simply would not allow him to do what needs doing (dictatorship needed anybody?) but the fact that he was seemingly dismissed out of hand while the ship remains rudderless since Lord Allen jumped ship before he was potentially pushed from an untenable position has to be of concern to us all – no racing means no betting in case anyone wonders why I care about what happens so much further up the food chain.        

Breaking news – as I was writing this, we got the news in that Rebel’s Romance has been retired at the age of eight. I love both codes, Flat and jumps for very different reasons, but the gelded son of Dubawi ticked both boxes – the speed of the Flat I enjoy, and the longevity of a jumps horse, giving us all the time to fall in love. Debuting with a won on the all-weather at Newcastle back in 2020, no-one knew back then that he would go on to race a total of 32 times, winning 22 of those and over £12 million in win and place prize money. Nine Group One wins saw him make his mark as a globetrotter with success in England, Dubai, Qatar, Germany, the USA, and Hong Kong, from a mile to a mile and three-quarters, and on ground from Yielding to Firm, with Standard, Good to Soft, Good, Good to Firm and Fast also appearing on his CV. I am a firm believer the future of our sport is in the hands of the horses (and the authorities giving them the limelight as they do elsewhere), and I can only hope they noted just how popular Godolphin’s runner was with the public. He will be sorely missed but deserves a bit of time to himself and all we can now do is wish him a long and happy retirement.

On to the racing…and plenty of it

Saturday Racing

Curragh 2.15pm

Off to Ireland for our first port of call and the Group Three Meadow Court Stakes over a mile and a quarter for fillies and mares. With zero winning favourites since 2021 those backing the odds-on One Look, who won this last year, will be a touch concerned, though on official ratings she has 5lb or more in hand of these rivals. Last seen finishing second to Estrange in the Group One Pretty Polly Stakes, her sights are lowered considerably this afternoon as she looks for her first win since taking this last year, but if she simply repeats her latest start she really ought to be little more than a steering job for James Doyle this afternoon.   

Newbury 3.02pm

The Hackwood Stakes is a fascinating six furlong Group Three that will see up to seven go to post, one short of the ideal number if we wanted to hunt down an each way option. I am all over the favourite like a rash here with the lightly raced Soldiers Tree my idea of the likeliest winner. Trained by James Owen and to be ridden by Sean Leavey, the Soldier’s Call gelding has only had seven starts, winning his maiden at Dundalk for his previous trainer, but running some excellent races in defeat since. Third in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, it is his penultimate run that really catches the eye with a three-quarter length defeat by Almareq at Salisbury. The winner went on to take the Group One Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot from the top-class Satono Reve, giving the form a huge boost, and a repeat of that effort would surely see him winning this lesser event with his head in his chest. 

Curragh 3.25pm

The Sapphire Stakes (Group Two) from the Curragh is a tough to call five furlong sprint due off at 3.25pm and all over about a minute later, so don’t blink or you will miss it! Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Charles Darwin of the Aidan O’Brien pair which may be a hint in itself, but the son of No Nay Never was last seen being beaten 10 lengths by Venetian Sun at Ascot is a little concerning – a better race yes but beaten too far for comfort, though the drop back to the minimum trip may see him mounting a bigger challenge, though this is not a race the stable target. Rosy Affair heads the early markets for George Boughey after her fourth to Mission Central at Royal Ascot but the winner let the form down with a poor effort in my eyes last weekend, and if I have a bet, it will be a small each way one on Havana Anna. Donnacha O’Brien won the big sprint at Newmarket last weekend and will look to double up with the daughter of Havana Grey who was beaten two lengths by Venetian Sun last time out with some of these a long way behind her. Lightly raced with three wins three second places and a third from nine starts, she looks the one with the most improvement to come potentially, and if she retains the speed for the five furlongs, I can certainly see her finishing in the first three and hopefully winning. 

Newbury 3.37pm

A complicated list of qualifying conditions makes the Weatherbys Super Sprint form Newbury all the more interesting with auction price and winers penalties defining the weight carried. With £135,000 to the winner, we have a maximum field of 26 declared and a tricky decision to make, but I do note that all of the last 10 winners came out of a double figure draw. Richard Hannon invariably targets this race, winning it three times since 2018, two of them ridden by Sean Leavey, and although he has five runners at the rime of writing, I am happy enough to go with From Me To You each way, the only one of the five with a decent draw from the 10 stall.  I suspect either the bookies are running scared or there has been some early money, hopefully the latter as his form is nothing to write home about, though he has looked green on all three starts and we haven’t seen him at his best yet. First time cheekpieces are applied to help him focus, he has no winner’s penalty to carry, but he did cost £55,000 as a yearling hence topweight here, but if he gets his act together, I can see him putting up a bold showing assuming he gets away smartly which has been his Achilles heel so far.   

Curragh 4.00pm

Not a race I like the look of at all with the Aidan O’Brien pair of Confucius and Carry The Flag looking less bulletproof than their past winners such as True Love last year. That said, I have struggled to guess one to improve past them, and there is little doubt that the selection will do a lot better if Ryan Moore can get him to settle. They will have been expecting a bit more from the son of No Nay Never who set connections back 1.7 million Guineas as a yearling, but he could just a be a late maturer in which case this race may be at his mercy.

Curragh 4.35pm

I made a bit of a fool of myself by describing Epsom Oaks winner Thundering On as the next Enable after she fluffed her lines in the Pretty Polly Stakes when a two length fourth and frankly, a disappointment. In her defence she was outgunned by older horses which makes the result a touch more acceptable, but was she beaten by better horses – or quicker ground and the drop back to a mile and a quarter? Back up in trip that excuse will be out the window today, though the ground remains on the quick side, though as a daughter of Frankel that didn’t ought to be an excuse. Stable companion Rebel Moon arrives unbeaten and is very much an unknown quantity at this level, while Sparan Nua has won all three for Jim Bolger and could be the each way value here.

Sean’s Suggestion:

Soldiers Tree 3.02pm Newbury