Flooding Wont Stop Leopardstown - With Any Luck!

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

Sad news last weekend with Sir Gino’s injury looking close to fatal but now we find out there is every likelihood he will make a full recovery and could even race again. Personally, I hope not, shame as it would be to never see him reach his full potential, but can you even imagine the media and public backlash if he is ever sent back to the track – and anything goes wrong (God forbid)? I wouldn’t want to see that, I doubt you would want to see that – and with National Hunt racing under enough scrutiny as it is, I really hope that risk simply isn’t ever taken.

Meanwhile, hats off to the good old British weather wiping out another load of cards (flooding not frost this time around), and leaving me in limbo until the last minute for this weekend with the Leopardstown track currently underwater ahead of the big meeting Saturday.  Nothing much else of note has happened in the world of racing, though the new NBHA Chair Lord Allen is undoubtedly battling with the racecourses to try and form a new committee and drag racing kicking and screaming into the 21^st century – hopefully a deal can be struck, we all know the sport is at a dangerous crossroads and we need people looking to the long term future, not grabbing a quick buck now and sod the next generation, which is how it feels at times.

Next up some good news with the Jockey Club announcing increased prize money, busting through the £60 million mark for the first time with an added £3 million or so taking the prize pot up to 61.47 million. Although I have often said that punters get a poor deal (and I stand by that regardless) I have never been oblivious to the poor returns to the owners without whom there would simply be no racing – or not the sort we have become used to. Most of the increases are for the two day Derby Festival with the big race now worth £2 million and the Coronation Cup more than doubled to £1 million as they look to hold or boost our standing on the International stage, but I have to add that with the majority of horses these days racing at a far far lower level, their owners could do with a bit more respite as well. 

Lastly, how much does anyone know about horse racing in Abu Dhabi – not a lot, well me neither? I have been lucky enough that as things stand, I am heading out there next weekend for the $1,000,000 Abu Dhabi Gold Cup, part of a seven race card and a mix of Arabian and thoroughbred racing, where I am expecting some British and European entries. This will be the very first running so I have no idea what to expect, but that is part of the fun of it, and rest assured I will be previewing as best I can, and writing a review of the day soon afterwards – you can label that as “coming soon” (Donald Trump allowing in this uncertain World).

Justin Snaith - chances of winning the Met on Saturday.

Saturday racing

1.05pm Lingfield

Disappointing to see a pathetic field of only three for the Winter Derby trial over a mile and a quarter, and at the moment it doesn’t look that tricky to find the winner (famous last words). Official ratings put the George Boughey trained Survie11lb clear of her rivals and that is before you take into account her mares’ allowance of 5lb, putting her over a stone clear in total. I suspect she will go off at prohibitive odds but a word of warning to those looking to get stuck in – she is having her first start since arriving from France after being sold for 1.9 million guineas in December, was last seen being beaten 30 lengths at Longchamp in the Group One Prix De Royallieu, hasn’t raced since last October, and is taking a big drop back in trip. On the positive side, she has won over a mile and arrives with a two out of two all-weather record after successes at Deauville and Chantilly and is taking a huge drop in class. She ought to prove far better than these if she is ready to roll, but taking a short price is entirely up to you!

1.15pm Leopardstown

In the hope that Leopardstown do go ahead (they seem pretty confident despite being underwater at present), then we have some cracking racing to look forward to. Doctor Steinberg heads the betting for (you guessed it) Willie Mullins and he looks a force to reckon with after winning both starts over hurdles and he does look the likeliest winner, but where is the fun in that and I will be on Love Me Tender each way to the smallest of stakes. The winner of a bumper and his first two over hurdles, he lost his unbeaten record when third here over two miles, but he steps up six furlongs here which is interesting and may see plenty of improvement. Owned by J P McManus, the betting will soon tell us if he is fancied or not, but at 10/1 he has a shot of a top three finish, assuming he stays the trip.

1.50pm Leopardstown

I think it’s going to get a bit repetitive mentioning Willie Mullins favourites this afternoon but it is what it is, and Narciso Has is currently odds-on for the two mile juvenile hurdle after winning by 11 lengths over course and distance on Boxing Day. He looked decent that day and deserves to head the betting, with more question marks against his rivals. Mange Tout arrives unbeaten but his hurdling leaves plenty to be desired and any mistakes could end his chances here, while the rest all need a step forward to come out on top. Not a race I am likely to bet in (unless I come up with a short priced treble or similar), but the favourite does come out on top whichever way I look at the race.

2.05pm Kenilworth

Not a race I normally cover, but this year I am more intrigued than ever with some of South Africa’s finest in action at Kenilworth over the mile and a quarter. As you may remember, I have been to the race once (and never been invited back – I must have upset someone!), but Cape Town is a vision of beauty as a city, and the racecourse is well worth a visit (even if I have been snubbed), but what of the race? Justin Snaith is one of if not the top trainer in South Africa at present, and looking at the betting he is responsible for the first two in the market from his six runners (in a field of 11). Eight On Eighteen was beaten a neck in the Durban July last summer and wasn’t seen again until returning here in the King’s Plate earlier in the month where he looked as if he would improve for the run, and didn’t have the best of luck either. If he bounces back from that he would be the one for me, though he has got to reverse the form with stable mate See It Again who was third that day. Formerly in the care of my good mate Michael Roberts, that was his first run since switching yard, and it will be interesting to see if Justin can get him back to his peak that saw him winning the Cape Derby and the Daily news 2000 back in 2023. He is good but a run of 12 races and close to three years without a victory puts me off a fraction, and the two years younger of the duo get my vote this afternoon, with Durban July winner The Real Prince another to consider despite being 2lb worse off for a neck with the selection.

2.40pm Sandown

A cracker of a novice chase at the early declarations stage saw a field of nine, six of which won last time put, but once we hit the 48 hour stage, that was whittled down to just the four runners. The two Irish raiders head the betting with Willie Mullins’ Kitzbuhel ahead of Gordon Elliott’s Kala Conti in the market, but if the race is run as I hope then the 7lb my suggestion gets may make all the difference. Both the jolly and Sixmilebridge like to make the running and I am hoping they take each other on bright and early, setting the race up for the six-year-old who likes to race out the back before coming with a winning run. Last time out she won by 16 lengths at Cork to keep her unbeaten record over fences, and if she puts in a clear round I can see more of the same happening this afternoon.

2.50pm Lingfield

A Listed race on the all-weather to spice things up a bit, and one that Karl Burke has farmed three times in the last five years, with Marshman scoring by a length and a quarter last season. He is back for more as a six-year-old and with his 100% course record (one out of one) I can see why he heads the early markets. Whether 2/1 (as I write) is value is open to question, and it may be worth taking an each way chance on Golden Sickle, who had some useful form in South Africa and makes her debut for George Boughey here. The top South African horses are better than many realise, with One Stripe an unlucky neck second in the Grade One Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream Park last Saturday, and my suggestion has form with the best of them at home. Last seen being beaten a head in the Computaform Sprint at Turffontein in late March last year, she wears a first-time hood to sharpen her up this afternoon, and if she has settled in to her new surrounding have little doubt she is easily up to this level and more, with the all-weather an interesting place to give her a British debut.

2.55pm Leopardstown

Sadly, even the Irish are suffering small fields and their Arkle Novice Chase sees just the three runners. For once Gordon Elliott handles the odds-on shot in the shape of Romeo Coolio, and the son of Kayf Tara has won all three starts over fences, the latest by half a length here over C&D on Boxing Day when staying on strongly at the death. He has to give 7lb to Kargese here and that looks a big ask after the mare put in a better performance to win as she pleased here in late December, and if she continues to learn with experience she may be able to draw errors out of her rivals. Whether we learn much ahead of Cheltenham seems doubtful at this stage, but a Mullins horse as second favourite looks too much to resist.

3.30pm Leopardstown

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is a tricky one to solve, but with 13 runners over the three miles plus we have a serious race with plenty of them holding pretty strong claims. Galopin Des Champs is a personal favourite and although he trades at the head of the market, I can’t find enough reasons to oppose him here. The winner of this race for the last three years, he won’t be able to hold off the younger challengers for much longer at the age of 10, but with a course record of seven wins from eight runs over fences, he has plenty in his favour. Third here on Boxing Day when the Mullins horses weren’t at their peak, he needs to reverse that form with Affordale Fury and I Am Maximus, but he looked to me as if he needed the race more than connections thought and can only strip fitter now to find the three lengths or so he needs. Stable companion Spindleberry looks interesting as she looks to maintain her unbeaten record over fences, and she could go well at a double figure price in receipt of 7lb as a mare, but class should tell here and there may be life left in the old dog yet.

Sean’s selection:

Golden Sickle each way 2.50pm Lingfield