Leoapardstown, Doncaster, And Putting The Racing World To Rights

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(except those of Ron Robinson with me here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEmiKrsKgb0&feature=youtu.beon the podcast)

Less news and more races this week with both Leopardstown and Doncaster putting on top class cards, but the hardly unexpected news broke recently that geldings WILL be allowed to run in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe starting next year – with a mixed bag of positive and negative reactions. For some (me for example) I want to see the best horses taking each other on with a weight for age basis to see who really is the best of either a generation or recent years. Banning geldings has not seen true competition in my view, with the likes of Calandagan and Goliath forced to look elsewhere for their Group One victories in the Autumn, and I have always seen their enforced absence as a successful move by those in the breeding industry to feather their own nests, with a gelded Arc winner worth nothing in the breeding sheds for obvious reasons. However, I have now read of some claiming geldings have a physical advantage as well as better concentration (presumably when the fillies and mares are around!) and that opens up a different can of worms. If the owners and trainers are arguing logically that geldings have an advantage, I wonder if they have ever approached the powers that be to ask all geldings to be penalised in all races, akin to mares and fillies getting a sex allowance? If they have, I haven’t heard about it – and if they haven’t, are they simply towing the line of the owner breeders who pay a decent percentage of their training fees? For now, it’s a case of suck it and see, but for me, I see it as good news as a racing fan.   

Talking of the Arc (who says I make this up as I go along?), we had the official trials last Sunday, though just like our classic trials, they are not the be all and end all with others set to compete after preparing elsewhere. As for Sunday, what did we learn? Friendly Soul, in the hands of the Gosdens in Newmarket took the Prix Vermeille in record time and would have to enter calculations IF she heads back to Paris, but connections seemed less than enthusiastic after the race and I would be hesitant to take the ante-post price of 40/1 just yet, though if you can find a non-runner no bet option then why not at that inflated price? Varandir gave Francis-Henry Graffard an even stronger hand when winning the Prix Niel by a length and a quarter in a time a fraction slower than Friendly Soul though he was carrying 2lb less and will need to improve (currently available at 16/1), while last year’s winner Daryz impressed when taking the Prix Foy readily enough despite looking as if the run would do him good, but at a best priced 9/4 I will await race day for my final conclusions. The horse I did take out of the day was the same trainer’s Erdenali who won the Prix du Moulin in another track record, looking a class act in the process and dare I say it, perhaps the best miler of the season (queue Bow Echo fans screaming at their computer). Gstaad who finished second to Bow Echo twice was said to be stronger now but was left trailing in his wake (carrying my money didn’t help), and if the winner heads to the Breeders’ Cup Mile as expected he will be my selection as I feel he could be an absolute world beater.   

In case you missed it we have the St Leger on Saturday (see below), the last of each season’s five classics after the 1000 and 2000 Guineas, Oaks, and Derby. Thanks to the need for speed these days, the mile and three-quarter Group One has rather fallen out of fashion with the long running joke that the winner will go on to be a National Hunt sire, but I worry we are forgetting all that is great and good about our sport. I am not a massive fan of the race itself but we need to look at the bigger picture. As mentioned many times, our prize money is frankly laughable in comparison to other jurisdictions (USA, Australia, Hong Kong and Japan to name just four), so why exactly do the likes of Coolmore Godolphin and others invest so heavily in the United Kingdom? Call it history, tradition, or any other word you like to think of, we are still the pinnacle of world horse racing, with our classic winners worth millions at stud – purely because we are who we are, and the hundreds of years it has been the sport of kings. If the St Leger fades to obscurity (and in theory it could end up downgraded depending on the winner’s ratings) then that could be the start of a slippery slope (next stop the Derby), and in case we forget, it is the oldest classic of them all.

Saving the best until the end, last week we covered the retirement of Romantic Warrior but thankfully, there is no sign that Ka Ying Rising will be getting his pipe and slippers any time soon. The six-year-old returned to action on the first day of the new Hong Kong season giving lumps of weight away in a Group Three handicap at Sha Tin on Sunday, winning by close to eight lengths in little more than a canter. Slowly pulled up before the line by Zac Purton, he still smashed his own course record by a second or so and clearly had more to give had he needed it, and although his next outing will likely be looking to retain his crown in the Everest in Australia I will hopefully I get to see him in person in Hong Kong at the international races in December. It is my view that he is the best sprinter I have ever seen and at this moment in time the best horse in the world with his 21 in a row winning streak stretching back to January 2024, and it will be a sad day indeed when he finally has to give up the game.               

On to the racing…   

Saturday Racing

1.45pm Doncaster

The Champagne Stakes has always been a decent contest weather permitting, with some high class winners, and hopefully this year will be no different. Sergei Diaghilev is not to be overlooked having won over six furlongs at the Curragh and a mile at Gowran Park, sandwiching a below expectations ninth in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, and as a Wootton Bassett colt put of a Galileo mare he is a sorely tempting each way option. Whether Desert Castle does or does not take to the softer ground won’t be known until after the race unfortunately, but he certainly made a big impression when winning at Newmarket on his one run to date, despite showing plenty of signs of inexperience. A big stamp of a horse I suspect he may take to the ground more than some, and as he sits high in the ante-post 2000 Guineas 2027 betting he will need to win this to keep his place in the pecking order. I think he can do just that and go into winter quarters a livewire competitor for next season’s classics.   

2.20pm Doncaster

One handicap seems more than enough for me this Saturday, especially when I have masochistically decided to work on the Portland, a five and a half furlong Class Two sprint. As is my habit with handicaps I like to profile the race via previous winners and in this case, I have noted that in the last 16 runnings we have seen:

15 winners priced shorter than 25/1 at the off

13 winners coming from a double figure draw

13 winners finishing in the first seven on their previous start

14 winners aged five or younger

14 winners came from the first 11 in the betting at the off

14 winners were officially rated 92 or above

All 16 had last raced within 60 days

13 winners had raced in the last 30 days

Put that lot together (and saving the last line as a “tiebreaker” if needed) and we end up with a shortlist of TWO, though as very few aspects are 100% my confidence has taken a bit of a knock! Getreadytorumble and Toca Madera get the nod via my reading of the statistics, so next stop, the trainers. The Channon yard have not won this in the last 15 years but David O’Meara has, and as Toca Madera has also raced in the last 30 day (tie-breaker time), the five-year-old gelding, second at Goodwood last time out, gets the each way vote.

2.45pm Leopardstown

Those with long memories will remember 1982 Derby winner Golden Fleece who this race is named after, and it will be interesting to see if any of these go on to run at Epsom. Darkness Falls heads the betting after winning his maiden at the second attempt by seven lengths, but the time was nothing impressive and we have no idea just yet what he really beat. For that reason alone, I am happy to oppose him with Charlie Appleby’s Quest For Stars who is proving hard to beat. Three runs have seen three narrow wins, fighting back to get on top late on when passed at Salisbury in Listed class and he seems well worth a go in this higher grade. He doesn’t ooze class like the jolly I accept, but he loves a battle and at 11/2 as I write, each way makes sense with a small profit if he places (assuming you can get a quarter the odds a place) and a decent one if he wins.

2.55pm Doncaster

The Park Stakes over seven furlongs for three-year-olds and older hasn’t seen a winner priced bigger than 13/2 in the last ten years so common sense suggests we focus our attention at the single digit contenders. Andrew Balding and Ralph Beckett have won the last four between them with two each and they are both represented once more with Flora Of Bermuda and Never So Brave (Balding) and Qirat (Beckett). All three can go well on a good day, but the form book firmly points to the chances of More Thunder, though I am wary of his poor win record with four starts this season without a victory. That said, he has run into some class acts with a second to Noble Speech in the Lockinge Stakes (the winner took the City Of York Stakes last time out), a second to Ten Bob Tony in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot (the winner was second to the top-class Erdenali at Longchamp last weekend), a fourth to Zeus Olympios in the Summer Mile and a fifth to Rayif in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deaville. I would be far happier had he won a race out of those, but that really is top drawer form and none of the others can boast anything near to that level.

3.35pm Doncaster

With five of the last ten winners and three in a row this has turned into the Aidan O’Brien show, though it should be noted Ryan Moore has only been on board one of those three, with Sean Levey and Tom Marquand on the other two, so “second strings” can go on to win here. The stable have entered four of the ten runners with Derby winner Christmas Day the shortest priced, and on official ratings he is the one to beat. He hasn’t won in either race since Epsom but has not been disgraced with a second in the Irish Derby and a third in the Great Voltigeur at York, looking one-paced on both occasions and likely to be suited by the step up in trip here. I won’t pretend to have much confidence in any of these to be honest, but he does appear to have the best form, though I would not fall over in shock if something else improved past him this afternoon, with Enceladus top of the list.

3.55pm Leopardstown

The Matron Stakes over a mile for fillies and mares is a decent Group Two and amazingly when you look at the rest of today’s notes, Aidan O’Brien has NOT won this since back in 2017. Three-year-olds have won eight of the last ten, possibly thanks to their weight allowance, and that may well be the case once more, though on paper we have a cracker of a contest. 1000 Guineas winner True Love is the O’Brien second string this year which says it all, with Precise, the winner of the Irish equivalent the pick of Ryan Moore. She rarely runs a bad race with a close-up third to Rayif at Deauville last time out and it will be fascinating to see what tactics are employed to try and get the better of Blue Bolt. Andrew Balding’s filly beat her by two lengths in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket and by half a length in the Prix Rothschild in early August, and there is no obvious reason why that form should be reversed. Admittedly she did not impress everyone that day but the race was a bit stop-start (as they often are in France), and the end to end gallop expected here will hopefully see her in an even better light.

4.25pm Leopardstown

I can never work out why they put two one mile contests in a row on a card but that is the case here, though this time it is not restricted to the fairer sex. British trained raiders have won exactly half of the runnings in the last decade which is encouraging for the chances of Audience (David O’Meara) and more importantly, Quddwah. Trained by the Crisfords in Newmarket, he is a bit of a jet setter, racking up the airmiles via trips to France, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi, winning at Salisbury, Newmarket, Ascot (twice), Longchamp, Chantilly, and Meydan (twice). All those victories have been on good ground or softer which is hopefully why he hasn’t been seen since a two length second to an in-form Ombudsman in the Dubai Turf on World Cup night, and having gone well fresh in the past, winning first time out every season, he looks a decent option here at odds around the 4/1 mark.

5.00pm Leopardstown

Class from top to bottom for the mile and a quarter Irish Champion Stakes to end with and like a stuck record, history says this is all about Aidan O’Brien, who has trained the winner of this in six of the last seven runnings. Almaqam was gunned down late on over half a furlong further in the Juddmonte International at York but is reported to be in rude health by trained Ed Walker, but he has a head to find with Item on that form though it could be close between the two with a fag paper between them assuming they both get clear runs. Constitution River was back in third that day but the race fell apart for the son of Wootton Bassett when pacemaker Action failed to follow the script, seeing the previously unbeaten colt pull too hard in a slowly run race and fail to land a serious blow. With Lambourn and Hawk River entered I cannot see the same mistake being made again, but it’s the going that pushes me in his favour. I have been convinced all season that after starting off in the Dee Stakes at Chester his next stop was a win in the French Derby (Prix du Jockey Club for the purists) because they knew he was likelier to get cut in the ground than at Epsom (even if it didn’t turn out that way), and if he gets a bit of give in the turf on Saturday, I can see him overturning recent form.      

Sean’s Suggestion

More Thunder 2.55pm Doncaster and Blue Bolt 3.55pm Leopardstown