Guineas Weekend - Say No More!

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

Short and (hopefully) sweet this week as I have returned from Kong Kong with an in-box full of work, an upcoming Horserace Betting Forum meeting at the BHA Offices, and a new job starting Friday – busy busy busy!

I will report back if I learn anything new next week as racing continues to battle it’s own demons here with going concerns, race distances under question, watering queries, and plenty of others things on the agenda – never a dull moment in this game.

That’s your lot for the waffle – its Guineas weekend at Newmarket and we need to focus any spare (in my case lonely) brain cells there in the hunt for more winners!

On to the racing this weekend…

Saturday

Newmarket 2.55pm - Palace House Stakes

Twilight Calls is a class act at his best as witnessed by wins at Doncaster and both Newmarket courses, but his career best may well have been a four-length second to nature Strip at Royal Ascot in the Group One King’s Stand Stakes in 2022. He has changed hands from Henry Candy and has his first start for Richard Spencer here, and if the new regime rekindles all his old fire, he could go well. Ascot second Beautiful Diamond heads the early market but I am pretty confident the value lies with Robert Cowell’s Clarendon House, available at a double figure price as I write. Not only is he officially the highest rated horse off a mark of 109, but he is reunited with Sean Levey who won on him at Southwell on his return to action in late February. His 10 career wins have some on the all-weather and on going ranging from Firm to Good To Yielding, and if he gets away smartly, he will hopefully prove difficult to keep out of the first three.

Newmarket 3.35pm –  2000 Guineas Stakes

The first classic of the 2025 season sees the colts heading up the Rowley Mile, looking for a place in racing history. All three-year-olds, and with six having their first start of the year, it’s a conundrum without a doubt. Field Of Gold heads the market after his runaway win in the Craven Stakes, but at his current price I cannot back him regardless, and we have to go all the way back to Mystiko in 1991 to see a grey winning here. The Aidan O’Brien team have dropped away one by one and he is left with Expanded, who cannot be discounted after his maiden win and a neck second in the Dewhurst (to the much more experienced Shadow Of Light who re-opposes here. A son of Wootton Basset, you can never be sure with Ballydoyle if this was always the plan – or has he been rushed here so they have a representative- and at odds of 5/1 he looks a pretty solid each way call with Ryan Moore aboard, and could even surprise them all? William Buick has picked Ruling Court of the Charlie Appleby pair which may or may not be much of a hint, while we must not forget the Saeed bin Suroor has won this in 1996 and 1999 and some of us would love to see a huge run from maiden winner Tornado Alert for old times sake.

Sunday

Newmarket 1.45pm – Pretty Polly Stakes

Eight lightly raced fillies go to post for this Listed contest, and it looks all about who has or has not trained on or improved from two to three. I was sorely tempted by Ralph Beckett’s maiden winer Likelaot who looks way too big at the 20/1 currently available, and if this turns into a test of stamina, she could be the surprise package. That said, it was hard not to be excited by the debut victory of Falakeyah, who quickened up in the style of an above average beast to win at Wolverhampton last November. A daughter of  New Bay out of a War Front mare, this mile and a quarter may be as far as she wants to go, despite the fact that she still holds an Epsom Oaks entry. Trainer Owen Burrows has his string on fire in recent weeks, and if she is as good as she looked last year, she can win this before stepping up in class.

Newmarket 2.20pm – Dahlia Stakes

A disappointing field of five are set to line-up despite the first prize of over £70,000 and the Black Type of winning a Group Two, but we deal with whatever is put in front of us as always. Globetrotter Cinderella’s Dream is my pick here, with Charlie Appleby’s filly more than capable. Wins at Lingfield and Thirsk were followed by a brace at Meydan last year before she lost her unbeaten record with a seventh in the 1000 Guineas. Other starts have seen her winning at Belmont and Saratoga before pair of seconds at Del Mar in the Breeders’ Cup and then at Meydan in February, and with a win record of six from nine starts (67%), I am happy to let her carry my money again this afternoon.  

Newmarket 3.35pm – 1000 Guineas Stakes

Elwateen is a very rare runner for Saeed bin Suroor in the Shadwell colours but after her one win from one start at Kempton, she clearly needs to take a big step forward to win the first fillies’ classic. Simmering has some solid juvenile form and looks overpriced at 50/1, and she could sneak into a place, but this looks a match between Desert Flower and Lake Victoria, both unbeaten and representing the power stables of Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien respectively. The last named has allegedly been rushed here with talk of her missing the race in recent weeks, but I refuse to believe O’Brien would send her here if she wasn’t ready, with the Irish 1000 Guineas an alternative option. Both have incredibly strong claims in what my prove to be a vintage year for the three-year-olds with nine wins between them and zero losses, making this a bit of a conundrum, but in the common sense suggests we stick with the daughter of Night Of Thunder who has had an uninterrupted preparation. Word in Newmarket has it that she has been pulling up trees on the gallops in recent weeks, and if that is the case she may be the one to come home in front.

Sean’s Suggestion:

Falakeyah 1.45pm Newmarket Sunday