Ka Ying Rising, Constitution Hill, Joao Moreira, and (perhaps) some winners - what a time to be alive!

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(except the podcast with Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsydvAQjqNU)

The first horse I have to mention is the frankly incredible Ka Ying Rising, Hong Kong’s number one sprinter (probably of all time), who broke the record of Silent Witness last Sunday when winning his eighteenth race in a row – some achievement. At the weekend he stepped up to seven furlongs for the first time since winning the same race last year – and obliterated the course record when strolling away for an eased down three and a half-length success. Although I am confident British racing has been in touch to try to get him to turn up at Royal Ascot, our derisory prize money (he won £694,000 last week and has amassed over £13 million in his career) makes that highly unlikely, and as a gelding he adds zero to his value for stud purposes even if you do see British racing as the pinnacle. It’s a shame but financial logic makes it a no go, though perhaps in the future they will eventually open up with a worldwide series of sponsored races (Formula One style?) that mean we can once again attract the very best to our shores.

Our next port of call is once again those dreaded bookmakers and the current question – are they REALLY suffering, or are they out to get their own back on racing? BetMGM have officially pulled their sponsorship for the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, citing necessary cutbacks after the recent rise in gambling taxes – on other products (not racing).  BetMGM fail to renew their sponsorship of the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle – economics, or trying to make racing pay for not supporting them with the tax rises? I am inclined to think it’s a bit of both (heaven forbid their shareholders lose a penny or two) with cost cutting the “reasoning” and racing’s lack of support for them in their fight to keep taxes lower on slots and casinos seeing an inevitable backlash, and we all need to think long and hard about ways to attract big money sponsors who don’t take a bet if they even exist?

Back to the horses next and the one, the only, Constitution Hill. I love it when I am right (however rare that may be), and if you wanted proof the horses are the stars, I rest my case. Southwell had their biggest crowd for a Friday night; the atmosphere was nothing short of electric – and I can only imagine the hammering the on-course bookmakers took when the popular favourite romped home by close to ten lengths. The roar of the crowd when he hit the front was more akin to the Japan Cup than Southwell and brought a smile to my face – proof positive that if you give racegoers the horses they want to see, you will get bums on seats. Sadly, it looks like jump racing fans will never see him in action again after a Wednesday morning announcement that he will miss the Champion Hurdle with the Melbourne Cup on the Flat a new long-term target, and it will be very interesting to see how he is campaigned between now and then as they look to get a handicap rating high enough to obtain a place the final line-up – while trying to keep his mark at a potentially winning one.  

Meanwhile, back in Hong Kong and the “Magic Man” is back. Brazilian jockey Joao Moreira is a legend over there, loved by fans in their thousands for many years and backed accordingly, before annoying injuries and family reasons saw him head take a sabbatical before riding in Australia and then back home in Brazil before stints in Australia and Japan. He did apply to return to Hong Kong on a retainer but was originally turned down, but someone has had second thoughts and he will ride for trainer Casper Fownes from April 8 until the season ends in July, though no-one will fall over in shock if he gets a few decent outside rides as he renews rivalry with Champion jockey Zac Purton.  

Lastly, I wanted to touch once more on race sponsorship – is racing doing enough I wonder? Over the years we have become perhaps overly reliant on bookmakers and we need to a) look elsewhere with more enthusiasm and b) make sure we offer them good value for money. I am not overly convinced that a crowd of less than a thousand represents a wise investment for many, while how many of those watching on tv or in the bookmakers even notice the name of a race sponsor while pondering their selections or even watching the race? When I did economics (back in the day) we had the 1% rule – 1% will read it and 1% of those might buy something. So, with a crowd of a thousand (and I am being pretty generous there) 10 read it and less than one spends money – not the best of returns for your marketing buck. I won’t claim this is my area of expertise, but looking at Kempton this evening (Wednesday) as an example, six of the seven races are sponsored by Unibet, but looking at Kempton’s social media and I see nothing on Facebook promoting Unibet, nothing on X (I still call it Twitter), and nothing on Instagram either – or am I asking too much? OK, so they are bookmakers, but the Bangor card has a mixed bag – Wrexham Lager and Alfa Aggregates just two of their sponsors today. Nothing on Facebook nothing on X and nothing on Instagram that is sponsor specific – surely they could at least add an advert for the companies concerned to try and show they are offering more value for money, and INSIST that whichever racing channel is covering the contest finds a single minute to interview someone from the sponsors on live TV, because if we don’t do more and the bookies walk away, our prize money could (somehow) become even worse than it is now.    

On to the racing……   

Joao Moreira - the "Magic Man" is heading back to Hong Kong

Saturday racing

1.25pm Doncaster

A Listed novice hurdle over three miles plus is a bit of a rarity and with a 40/1 winner in 2021 and a 6/5f winner last year, all things look possible. No trainer has won this more than once in the last 10 years so “nothing to see here”, and it’s down to a good look at the formbook to try and find the winner. As I write they are betting 4/1 the field which tells you just how competitive this is, and with stamina questions to answer for these novices, nothing would surprise me. Coolanna heads the early markets after wins at Uttoxeter and Wincanton, but both were on heavy ground and we have no idea if she will handle the quicker conditions expected here. She can go well, but I narrowly prefer the chances of Broomfield Aderrarepresenting the Dan Skelton stable. A winner at Lingfield in November and a close up third at Aintree on Boxing Day, she is a half-sister to Onethreefivenotout who win a three and a quarter mile chase at Newton Abbot for Paul Nicholls last year, she may be the one who takes to the big step up in trip and warrants a little bit of each way attention.  

1.40pm Kelso

Another Listed race but this time over fences and a fraction shy of three miles in a race won last year by the classy Grey Dawning for the Skelton double act of Dan and Harry. This year they look all set to run Protektorat but odds-on for an 11 year-old is not for me despite a decent win last time out at Windsor when staying on strongly over two furlongs shorter.  Having said that I can’t find good reason to oppose him either in a poor turnout of just the four runners, and as he is officially rated 20lb superior to all of his rivals, this looks a race to watch – but not one to bet in at ridiculous odds.  

2.15pm Kelso

This highly competitive Grade Two Novice hurdle intrigues at the four day declaration stage with 18 declarations, but as expected that has whittled itself down to 11 now. Lucinda Russell won it last year with 16/1 shot Jet To Vegas, and she is back in 2026 (in partnership with Michael Scudamore) with 50/1 chance Caballo De Guerra, the only course winner in the field. Upped a couple of furlongs after finishing fourth at Haydock, he races off 2lb lower now and could surprise everyone with a top four finish. Montemares is one to consider after losing his unbeaten record when fourth at Newbury in the Challow Hurdle, as is the lightly raced Lord Byron who sports first time cheekpieces, but the nod goes to Le Beau Madrik as Dan Skelton ramps things up ahead of Cheltenham. Runner-up in both bumpers, one at Plumpton and the other at Cheltenham, he took a maiden hurdle at Newcastle in November and followed up at the same track with an easy success last month. Like many of these, we have no idea just how good he is (or could be), but he looks to be on an upward curve and at 6/1 or thereabouts looks a sensible each way call.     

2.30pm Doncaster

An ideal race for profiling (we have found big priced winners this way – and losers too) but we soldier on looking for long term profit – Rome wasn’t built in a day! Looking at the last 15 years for a point of reference, and we have seen winners at up to 33/1 (at the off), though nine winners did start at a single figure price so we have hope. Of those who completed on their previous start (12 in total), 11 came home in the first seven, while 14 of the 15 were aged between eight and 11 inclusive. All had an official rating between 125 and 149, all had raced in the last 120 days, none had raced in the last seven days, and 14 had not raced in the last 15 days. Lastly, all had raced at least twice this season – but not more than five times, and if we use those as guidelines, we get the number down to five and I suspect the winner will be one of Kings Threshold, Destroytheevidence, King Turgeon, New Order, or Kelce. Of the trainers of those five, Emma Lavelle is yet to have a horse place in this race so I will reluctantly lose Kings Threshold, but of the remaining four, every trainer has had a place at least once. The only exception to that rule is Destroytheevidence, with Kim Bailey (now Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls) having four combatants in this contest in the last 24 runnings, winning with two (The Last Samuri in 2016 and Akaased 2024) and placing with one other. That statistic tips the balance in my view, and although my each way selection hasn’t won in his last eight starts, stretching back to October 2024, he has hit a few places off similar marks and hopefully has a better chance than his latest odds imply.   

2.35pm Lingfield

A seven furlong Listed race limited to three-year-olds on the Lingfield polytrack to end with this Saturday, and one that went the way of Rebel’s Gamble for Kark Burke last season, a 9/4 shot.  In a race restricted to three-year-olds, and with four of the eight declared having their first start of the season, we can expect some to improve for their time off to mature – and others to go backwards, but which is which? Ten Carat Harry arrives on the back of a fifth consecutive victory after the Ardad gelding scored by a length and a quarter at Newcastle last month and he looks an obvious player with a fitness advantage over some, while Andrew Balding’s Sir Albert is the best horse in the field – according to official ratings. Star Strewn heads over from Ireland after winning her maiden at Dundalk and is not comfortably overlooked, but the one in my notebook is Richie’s Rocket and I see no reason to desert him just yet. Third at a big price when looking as if the experience would do the son of New Bay the world of good, he was hammered in the market next time out over course and distance (Evens to 30/100) before coming home nine lengths clear of his rivals. The form of that race is certainly open to question but he could do no more than put them all to the sword with ease, despite still looking green under Rossa Ryan, and if there is more to come as I hope, he might prove too good for these.      

Demystifying racing – handicaps UK v Hong Kong models and which is best

Why I give myself these complex issues is beyond me, but if we want to attract newcomers to the sport then it needs to be a lot less confusing. In a nutshell, the vast majority of our races are handicaps, races where horses of varying abilities carry different weights in an attempt to make it a level playing field. The BHA employ professional handicappers who look at the form of each and every horse to allot an official mark, so when a horse rated 90 meets a horse rated 80 in a handicap, the first named has to give his opponent 10lb – simple isn’t it (I wish)? In reality, my understanding is that ratings are based on a combination of race times as well as lengths, putting the ratings up or down accordingly after each performance. That creates difficulties when a horse wins easily and can see an improving horse stay ahead of the handicapper, but they keep it as exact and factual as they can and I see no other choice under the current rules.

Hong Kong is very different – and perhaps simpler. Once again, all horses have a rating, but the rating moves according to finishing position – full stop. The winner of any handicap will automatically go up 5lb or more, those who finish second to fifth can go up a maximum of 5lb, and those finishing sixth or worse cannot be put up regardless. What that has done, historically, is see some highly valuable Class One handicaps of top quality horses with the ratings effectively compressed and the best horse not necessarily unduly penalised. Five classes (one to five) have prize money going up by class so trainers still have the option of a lighter weight in a more valuable contest (against better and perhaps in-form opponents), or top weight in a lesser contest, and I have to say it does seem considerably simpler than our version, though perhaps easier to play the game with?

Sean’s Suggestion:

Richie’s Rocket 3.10pm Lingfield