The Grand National (Ouch), Racing News, and A Winner Or Two

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

I am not going to pretend I am the biggest fan of the Grand National from a punting perspective – the longest race von the calendar, different fences, big fields, the end of a long hard season for many and a handicap to boot – oh and the one race when friends who don’t talk horses to me all year think I can simply give them the winner! It is not the race of old as a spectacle with the fences made easier and far better horses competing (keeping out those who with hindsight should never have been allowed to run), much to the chagrin of some of the older generation, but even I have to move with the times (are flares back in yet?) now and then, and lists of horses passing away is not and perhaps never should have been deemed acceptable. More horses finish (touch wood) which still leaves us with exciting finishes, with Nick Rockett taking it last year by two and a half lengths (not much after over four miles), so I have no worries on that score and just hope and pray they all come home sound at the end of the race.       

Affordability checks continue to dominate racing headlines with 400 plus signatures on an open letter to culture secretary Lisa Nandy (mine included as Chair of the HBF to the best of my knowledge), as the sport looks to mitigate a loss of income via leaving the levy as it was (scandalous in my view), and bookmakers tightening the purse strings after a rise to other forms of gambling (heaven forbid they lose a few quid from their already over the top profits). Golfer Lee Westwood, who I suspect may have a few quid more than me in his bank account even suffered intrusive checks (funny that, they are supposed to be invisible), so what hope is there for the rest of us? No-one with half a brain (that will be me then) is against help for problem gamblers, but how they can’t work out a credit check solution is incredible in this day and age – overdrawn and behind on your mortgage then your rating is

too low and you should be questioning yourself without reminder (though a nudge can’t hurt I suppose), but other than that it’s my money to spend as I see fit – meanwhile racing is losing millions from punters who either stroll into the welcoming arms of black market bookmakers – or leave the sport altogether.

Better news next and anyone who reads my articles wherever will be fully aware I am a big fun of international racing. Yes, that means me heading off abroad, but I am equally in favour of attracting the very best over here. Joliestar is already set for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and now may be joined by Charm Stone, and with a long list of Group One wins to their names, they will clearly take some stopping if they get there safe and sound. It seems reasonable to suggest that we haven’t had the best sprinters for many years now so the race does look at their mercy, though the likely absence of Ka Ying Rising makes their task that much easier. Hong Kong’s darling made it 19 wins in a row on Monday, taking the Group Two Sprint Cup by four and a quarter lengths eased down – and still breaking the track record once again. Getting better with age he has now amassed a ridiculous £13.38 million in career earnings, and the scary thing is I think he is getting better at the age of five! Sadly, our prize money is simply not enough to attract him over to the UK, and as a gelding there is no stud value in winning at Royal Ascot that just may have tempted connections had he been a colt.

As I look out of my window, I can see a ball of sun and I gather that is the scenario around the Country, including Liverpool, which has seen Aintree start watering ahead of their big meeting. Good to soft is apparently the target and they can easily get there but if the weather forecast is wrong and it rains heavily, things could soon go wrong.  Of all the meetings of the year this is the one that garners public attention, and what they don’t need is a four mile plus slog on heavy ground come race day, especially if the sun has come back out and the temperatures rise as that could create a disaster zone. Contrary to what some may think, the horse’s welfare is my number one priority, and if the ground goes against any of my bets so be it – as long as we can minimise any fatalities in front of a watching world.

Taking of the Grand National, I can’t pretend it’s a race I like betting in for financial reasons – but it is only once a year and I have to have a flutter, albeit a small one. According to my reading of past statistics (which may or may not be repeated as I found out to my cost at Cheltenham), the following shortlist could well contain the winner (I won’t bore you with how I got here), and five I will consider laying who according to history simply cannot win, and they are Nick Rockett (last year’s winner gulp), Perceval Legallois, Marble Sands, Pied Piper, and Ain’t That A Shame, though at the prices on the exchanges Nick Rockett is the only one I can afford to financially oppose (now a non-runner). Finding the winner is even tougher but I am hoping for a big run from (drum roll please), Johnnywho. Trained by A J and Jonjo O’Neill, the nine-year-old ticks plenty of boxes for me after staying on strongly to win the Ultima Chase at Cheltenham last time out, outgunning Jagwar close home. He did make a mistake that day which is a negative for a race like this, but that was his first start following wind-surgery and who wouldn’t want to see Jonjo winning this as a trainer for J P McManus and with Richie McLernon in the saddle, though at 16/1 each way seems the more sensible call.

AJ and Jonjo O'Neill - burdened with my Grand National tip!

Saturday racing

12.35pm Chepstow

Away from Liverpool for our first race to cover and it’s a two mile junior hurdle restricted to four-year-olds, and won last year by Mad Maxios at odds of 9/1, the only time we have failed to see a winning favourite in the three runnings to date.  I am pretty confident the Nicky Henderson trained Planters Punch will go off at pretty short odds here as he looks to keep his unbeaten record after wins at Hereford and Bangor, the latest by an impressive 18 lengths. One word of caution though before you take a short price, he can pull too hard and if he does that here, it will be interesting to see how relatively inexperienced jockey Daniel Willams (claims 7lb) handles that eventuality.

12.45pm Aintree

It takes a well-known yard to win this in the last decade with Willie Mullins (twice), Paul Nicholls (3 times), Nicky Henderson (twice), Gordon Elliott and Henry De Bromhead responsible for the nine winners between them. Both Irish trainers have entries here with the Mullins beast Salvatore Mundi the one heading the market after making all to win by 28 lengths at Thurles last time out. The opposition now seem highly unlikely to give him such an easy time on the front end today which could bring out a mistake or two, with Mighty Bandit the likeliest to put him under pressure, but there may be more to come on his fourth start over fences and the track looks ideal for him which is a bonus.

1.55pm Aintree

The Mersey Hurdle over two and a half miles has always been a decent contest, but one that has been farmed by Gordon Elliott for the last four years and he runs Ballyfad here looking to make it five. Bossman heads the market having finished ahead of the selection in sixth in the Turners at the Cheltenham Festival, but we can ignore Ballyfad’s running after he was kicked before the start and then running too freely before weakening late on. Better judged on his short head second to Talk The Talk in a Grade One at Leopardstown, the fact that connections seem eager to let him take on his rival once more suggests we did not see his true running that day, with the step up in trip on a flatter track expected to play to his strengths.

3.05pm Aintree

The three miles plus Liverpool hurdle is out last race covered this Saturday, but if they all stand their ground it looks a decent and competitive contest. All the early money seems to have been for Gordon Elliott’s Honesty Policy who wears a tongue-tie for the first time here, but he has close to seven lengths to find with Home By The Lee on Stayers’ Hurdle form and the meet at the same weights. Hewick would be a very popular winner and he may well have another go at making all on a track where his stamina will be less tested, but much as I would love him to win, my bet will be elsewhere. Jingko Blue looks the better value if only just at 6/1 as I write, and with James Bowen getting on well with the seven-year-old who stayed on well to win going away over shorter at Cheltenham last month. He has only been over hurdles in public seven times, winning three of them, and with the chances of more improvement he could yet be the sensible each way call.

Sean’s Suggestion

Ballyfad 1.55pm Aintree