Why Bother Betting - Or Finding Winners?

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

No real excuses this week other than too much work and various meetings to try and put forward the case for punters in the racing industry (keep an eye out for quotes from yours truly shortly in the Racing Post) as we continue to point out that if bookmakers are allowed to act as they are at present, the sport really is in trouble. In simple terms (so that I can understand them) I may not always find winners, but when I do I want to be rewarded accordingly.  

What we have at the moment is a culture of fear – if I find a 25/1 shot I Iike the look of and put £20 on (if I can find a bookmaker to take the bet that is), do I really want it to win? At first glance the answer is a glaringly obvious “of course you do” – but wait a minute – that may make it the last bet I get to place with that bookmaker. Win £500 like that (and remembering that their profits are in the billions between them), and there is every chance my account will be restricted to pennies or closed within seconds – how can that be right? Two-faced doesn’t’ even come into it – how do UK bookmakers in the year 2025 justify all the talk about gambling harm, all the adverts for GamStop and others – yet the harsh reality is win and you are swiftly shown the door – instead of “If the fun stops, stop” perhaps a more realistic catchphrase would be “win and you can sod off”?

Rant over, and on to the racing - though it is Shergar Cup this weekend – good fun yes, but sensible betting opportunities – less so.

Saturday racing

Ascot 1.35pm

The first thing to mention here is to reduce stakes – most of the jockeys involved, world class as they are, have never sat on these horses before, and some have never even ridden the course – so we all need to play carefully. That aside, I do like the chances and the price of Manaccan, the mount of Hollie Doyle. Out of sorts so far this year with a last place in the Group One King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot and a tenth of 11 at Sandown in the Group Three Coral Charge at Sandown. He drops into handicap company for the first time since winning this race in 2022 off 1lb higher, and with a “local” jockey in the saddle he looks to have sold each way chances.

Newmarket 3.40pm

Dance To The Music has been backed heavily since I started writing this and is now as short as 6/4, but I am less convinced that she is unbeatable. She did win by a length on her only start, and she did look likely to find plenty of improvement in the Godolphin blue, but at the prices I will be on Sapphire Steps each way. Trained by Richard Hannon who won this in 2016 and 2017, she won a Newbury maiden with ease in mid-July, a race taken by the same stable before and targeted by his black type afterwards, suggesting they think plenty of the daughter of Dark Angel who has a better chance than her odds suggest.  

Ascot 3.55pm

Topteam will be popular and the one thing we can guarantee is the three-year-old Oasis Dream colt won’t go under without a fight. He fended off all challengers to win by a neck at Thirsk last time out and is looking for his hat-trick here but he has to do more to do the same to the Willam Haggas trained Tenability who is improving at a rate of knots. A slow learner with a fifth at Nottingham and a fourth at Chelmsford he has stepped up a few gears since with win over a mile and a quarter by eight lengths and over this trip last time out over course and distance by an easy two and a half lengths, he does need to improve again off 7lb higher but with only four races on the CV, he may have improvement to come.

Newmarket 4.50pm

One last race to finish with and not my most confident of choices, but Bellator Bullet has chances if nothing more ahead of the mile and three quarter handicap from Newmarket. A winner twice this year over this trip at Redcar and Nottingham, he headed off to Newbury last time out off this mark but only managed fourth after losing momentum after being hampered, but trainer Alice Haynes adds first-time cheekpieces this evening and if they help him focus and he gets a clear run he is not out of this by any means.

Sean’s Suggestion

Manaccan 1.35pm Ascot Each Way