Cheltenham Wrap Up And My Thoughts For Saturday

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(except for the Podcast link here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvTesfM-14I&feature=youtu.bewith the one, the only, Ron Robinson)!

There is only one place to start this week and that’s a look back at the four day Cheltenham Festival – not my finest hour but I have my excuses lined up ready!

Before we look at any individual performances, we need to start with the going – and the constant moaning of Willie Mullins who felt it should have been considerably softer – because that suits his horses! I may be an outlier here, but as long as the ground is as safe as they can make it, then let nature takes its course is my view. Willie may have wanted more cut in the ground and who can blame him, but just imagine you have a horse that like a sounder surface? Year after year you see your chances at both Cheltenham and Aintree go out the window because of inclement British weather but once, just once – you get the going your horse needs – and they water the hell out of it? No-one that I have ever heard of goes out trying to dry out soft or heavy ground – it is what it is – yet they regularly overwater, leaving some trainers and owners beaming from ear to ear – and others crying into their Guinness. That seems grossly unfair to me, and always has done, though before I am hung drawn and quartered, I must reiterate that good or good to soft is as far as I would go – none of us want unnecessary injuries to the horses.

The starts are next on the moan list – surely it is not beyond the wit of man to give them a fair chance as the flag falls? Yes, I am talking through my wallet, with the Paul Nicholls trained No Drama This End missing the start in the Turners before meeting never ending trouble in running before eventually pulling up. That was only one example of some “unfair” starts in my view, and when we are talking Championship racing, then an equal start or as near to it as you can get surely has to be a gimmee? I do appreciate there is always a distance to travel in National Hunt racing, but we saw horses win by distances as short as a nose last week – yet horses are allowed (or sometimes forced) to start lengths behind the leaders, which could be the difference between victory and also ran.

Meanwhile, bookmakers had a few races where they left with overflowing satchels of cash including 18/1 shot Johnnywho (one of my few winners of the week), Martator 66/1, White Noise 40/1, Home By The Lee 33/1, Ask Brewster 22/1, and Apolon De Charnie at 50/1. Nothing you can do or say about that, and congratulations to their connections, but it’s the last named that draws my attention. Trained by Willie Mullins (no, I am not anti Willie at all, best trainer who ever lived in the jumping game without a doubt), but he won the Triumph hurdle with a 100/1 shot last year so this was nothing new. What I do take issue with is the fact that he had NINE of the 20 runners, which ought to be reported to the Monopolies Commission! Seriously though, did other owners have their horses balloted out and not get a run, perhaps from a small yard with a once in a lifetime opportunity to have a runner at Cheltenham and if so, how can that be right? For me, a new rule of one horse per trainer sits well with me for each and every race, then they can have a second or third and so on IF the race isn’t filled by others – that seems infinitely fairer than the current scenario?

Lastly, the horses are the star of the show and if I had to pick two, then Willie Mullins trains them both (no bias, see). Lossiemouth could not win the Champion Hurdle according to all my statistics from the last 20 years but nobody told her and she easily reversed recent form with Brighterdaysahead to write her name in Cheltenham history, but Gaelic Warrior has to be my number one pick. I cannot remember seeing a horse traveling as well two out in a Gold Cup in my lifetime, normally a war of attrition that sees them staggering home, but not this year. He could be called the winner a long way out, travelling with ease before being unleashed by Paul Townend to go four lengths clear at the last, which was extended without the need for a whip to eight lengths by the line. He was value for further than that and it will take a good one to stop him retaining his crown next season – though the collapse post-race and passing of Envoi Allen did take a lot of the shine off of the occasion.

Away from Cheltenham and Lord Allen resigned as Chair of the British Horse Racing Authority (BHA) – a real shame in my view as we had a top businessperson in charge with ideas to save and then progress the sport. The fact that he was gunned down by those who apparently have racing as their priority is a major concern, with in-fighting failing to reach the agreements needed. Where we go from here is anybody’s guess, and who they can attract to sip from the poisoned chalice next is the great unknown, but I despair of those who want to keep the status quo that is dragging our sport into the gutter – rather than taking a chance at a better and brighter future that may see a few years of hardship in return for greater long-term reward for all and not just the chosen few.

Lastly, as I write this, I am sat here sulking. I do understand racing isn’t everything even if it is my little world, but the war with Iran means I have had to call off my annual trip to the Dubai World Cup. I am told it is nowhere near as bad over there as our media would have us believe, and they are currently adamant that the meeting will go ahead regardless, but without government advising against travel, my insurance would be null and void – and I cannot risk bankrupting my family should anything happen that leaves me needing medical treatment that I would then have to pay for. It will be interesting to see which horses and connections travel over in the circumstances, and how deep the fields are, but the horses will have been trained for this specific date and postponing is not a realistic option with the knock-on effect for the rest of the season and the risk to long term planning. It is sad, and I am worried that I might not be welcome next year having “chickened out” but my family cones first, and they were adamant I should not go.

On to the racing……

Saturday racing

1.00pm Kelso

Hollygrove Cha Cha is the highest rated in this Listed contest but at 5/2 she seems too skinny for me with just 1lb in hand of Irish raider World of Fortune at these weights. All known form points to it being a straight battle between that pairing who are better than the rest, but I am willing to take an each way risk on the bigger priced Tankardstown Diva. An improving seven-year-old, she deserves a shot at the big time after wins at Plumpton and Ludlow since returning to hurdling, the latest  last month where she could be called the winner a long way out. This is a bigger ask by some margin, and my bets will be small accordingly, but I cannot split the two at the head of the market and will settle for third if we get lucky.

1.15pm Newbury

As two mile plus novice hurdles go this looks a good one, though as soon as I say that I see the early betting and my selection is a short price! I did have a good look at both Cecelia Star (who gets lumps of weight as a four-year-old filly) and Dan Skelton’s Gambino (last seen behind Constitution Hill on the Flat), but the formbook makes it hard to avoid Kocktail Bleu, who runs for the Chris Gordon stable. The six-year-old does have an annoying habit of finding one too good for him, finishing second on his last three starts, but he drops back into weaker company (in theory) after being beaten three lengths by Klub De Reve in the Grade Two Dovecote Hurdle at Kempton last month. This is a competitive Class Three without a doubt, but on form rather than rumour, he is by far the likeliest winner.

3.00pm Newbury

It’s a Grade Two, it’s a novice – but it’s a handicap and the battle we have is working out who is improving faster than the handicapper thinks – and who isn’t. Profiling tells me precious little other than the fact that Pismo Beach is up against it (19 who pulled up last time have tried to win this – none have been successful), so back to the formbook. Strong Run is the one that leaps off the page to me, a winner at Southwell on her second start over hurdles despite pulling to hard and making a mistake four out, and the daughter of Passing Glance ran just as well in defeat when beaten a length and a quarter by favourite Coolanna at Wincanton. Making her handicap debut off a mark of 116 which seems fair enough, the better ground here will certainly suit and if she can get round without too many mistakes (sadly not guaranteed), then she can well with a place giving us a small profit if nothing else.        

4.23pm Kelso

A Class Two bumper up in Scotland looked worth investigation early doors but I have to say, it’s not as strong a field as I originally expected. Fridaysman seems sure to prove popular after finishing a good fourth to Merlin Allen in a decent race at Aintree but I am less convinced by that form than others, and I will take a chance on the Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore trained Barito. Bought for £50,000 after winning a two and a half mile point-to-point at Sheriff Hutton by three lengths, I like the fact that he quickened up nicely to put the race to bed, which I see as the sign of a horse with plenty of potential. He does drop back in trip with can find some of them out, but he is closely related to plenty of winners over two miles or so, and he could yet be the surprise package here.

10.42pm Fair Grounds (Louisiana Derby)

Something a little different to round things off this week with the Louisiana Derby, a Grade Two for three-year-olds over one mile one and a half furlongs, and with over £444,444 to the winner – nice work if you can get it! Trainer Bob Baffert had a strong hand at the early declarations stage and he has decided to rely on Blacksmith here, a maiden winner last time out at Santa Anita who is a big strong son of Liam’s Map who is owned by Wathnan Racing. He clearly needs to step up on the little we have seen from him so far, but my colleagues watching trackwork stateside have been suitably impressed in the last 10 days, and he is thought to have a very bright future. Looking for points to get into the Kentucky Derby, he ships out of Southern California to give his trainer his first runner here since Code West finished sixth in 2013 and looks to have an excellent chance. Steve Asmussen’s Chip Honcho may be the one for any forecast backers out there and looks a serious rival after finishing second last time out, while Easterly looks the best of the Brad Cox pair with Edgard Zayas apparently eager to keep the ride and flying in from Gulfstream for the privilege.

Sean’s Suggestion:

Kocktail Bleu 1.15pm Newbury