Chit-Chat And Newmarket - What's Not To Like?

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

After a week off to recharge the batteries, I am back and eager to get back to the racing grindstone!

Much to my wife’s disgust I still try to keep an eye on the news when I am away, but we need to be more up to date than that and the first (albeit sad) subject has to be the passing of Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, part of the Dubai royal family and an avid racehorse owner. Things like this awaken memories in us old folk, and in this case, he may have been responsible for the likes of Wassl (Irish 2000 Guineas), Possessive Dancer (Irish Oaks), and Ameerat (1000 Guineas), like many the name of Mtoto comes to the fore. In the hope some reading this are younger than me (mathematically likely to be fair) and need a reminder of his exploits, he was for me a top horse in a golden era for the sport. He won eight times but was a proper battler who genuinely didn’t like to be beaten, winning the Coral Eclipse in 1987 (beating Derby winner Reference Point and spoiling my betting slip)  and again in 1988, and I would suggest that if here is a heaven, the Sheikh will be up there feeding him carrots as I write. I keep in touch with his jockey Michael “Muis” Roberts to this day (I’d like to think we are friends, he might not agree) on my trip to the Durban July, and if I remember I will ask him for his thoughts on Mtoto when we next catch up.

Next up we have that thorny issue of jockeys winning a big race, getting a suspension straight afterwards, yet keeping the race. That has always been a problem to me and it reared its ugly head once more when Shane foley won the Irish Champion Stakes on Hotazhell and promptly received an 11 day suspension for his ride after effectively ending any chance Oisin Murphy had on A Boy Named Susie who looked to be traveling as well as any at the time.  I am not and will never be a jockey, armchair or otherwise, so my opinions on the offence are worthless, but surely if you win by “fouling” you cannot get to keep the race – imagine a boxer punching his or her opponent under the belt so hard they cannot continue – then being allowed to box on regardless and keep the belt? I can as always see both sides, as in why should the trainer or owners lose their spoils though no fail of their own, but at the very least the jockeys share of any winnings should be forcibly given to racing charities as a warning to keep to the straight and narrow (literally in this case)? Interestingly, other jurisdictions have stepped forward to support the Irish steward’s decision on the day, while pundits and some trainers have said the very opposite, but for me (and no I did not back the hampered horse), something still needs to be done to stop the “cheating”, albeit it accidental in this case.     

On to the racing…

Saturday Racing

1.55pm Newmarket

We have some excellent racing this Saturday though as we all know by now, two-year-olds can catch you out with some having reached their peak and others with more to offer.  We are looking at a Group Two over a mile here and a race won by Bow Echo last year (so this year’s winner has plenty to live up to), and although we only have seven runners, two arrive unbeaten in the shape of Charlie Appleby’s First Law and Karl Burke’s Burning Up. The first named just seems to lack the turn of foot I would expect from the winner of this contest, while Karl’s charge may need a bit more cut in the ground to be seen at his best with the possibility of good to firm by race time. That leads me to taking a chance on Andrew Balding’s Quicken Away, second on debut and an all the way winner at Goodwood on his only other start. I am hoping he has enough in the tank to try the same tactics here, and although he will be bothered and won’t have things his own way on the front end, if he can hold on for second we will land our place bets at a minimum.

2.27pm Newmarket

In my eyes this is the best race of the day with six top-class fillies going to post, five of them a winner last time out. Opposing Sun Goddess does look naïve at first glance with Aidan O’Brien’s filly winning her last four races in a hack canter, the latest by six and a half lengths at the Curragh in the Moyglare Stud Stakes. That was a mighty performance but it was over seven furlongs and even there she hit a short flat spot before running on to get on top with ease in the end. Dropping back a furlong now, on quicker ground and with the infamous Newmarket dip to cope with, she may find Libertango has too many gears and can confirm Albany Stakes form where she finished a length ahead of the favourite despite meeting trouble in running.  She has got three-quarters of a length to find with Senorita Bonita on Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes form, but she pulled too hard that day and if she settles better as she did when winning at York last month, I can see her coming home in front with a very late rattle.

3.00pm Newmarket

The good races just keep on coming this Saturday and the Group One middle Park Stakes looks as competitive as any. Orthodox has been supported in the market in recent days despite finishing sixth in the Prix Morny at Deauville last time out and if he is back to his best he could go well, but this looks like a duel between Push The Boat Out and Inner City Blues who both arrive unbeaten. Michael O’Callaghan’s son of Kodi Bear warrants the utmost respect after winning the Group Three Round Tower Stakes at the Curragh last time out, beating Coventry Stakes winner Great Barrier Reef by a neck, and to ignore that form could be folly. That said, I have been taken with Godolphin’s Inner City Blues, a winner at York on debut (by two lengths) and the Group Two July Stakes at Newmarket by a length and a quarter. Sent off odds-on both times the whole world seemed to know he was a decent sort, and when you look at him, he can only get better in time. That is enough to give hm the vote for me, but it shood still be a fascinating contest, I just hope we are all on the winner.   

3.40pm Newmarket (handicap)

Why I look at handicaps is beyond me but I know some readers love them so once again we will give it a go – profiling doesn’t work all the time (I wish) but we have found some big priced winners this way so I will persevere! The Cambridgeshire over nine furlongs is one of the Flat season’s biggest betting races, so this won’t be easy but I have looked at the last 16 runnings and made a note of any fact that was applicable to at least 12 of those (75%) to see what we find:

14 went off at odds of 40/1 or shorter

12 came from stall seven or higher

15 came home in the first six on their previous outing

All 16 were aged six or younger

14 were aged five or younger

12 came from the first 14 in the betting at the off

12 were rated 95 or higher

15 were rated 107 or lower

15 raced in the last 60 days

14 had previously raced 3 to 7 times this season

Using those as my guide (and sadly current prices), and from 28 declared I can quickly get it down to a shortlist of four, losing the short priced favourite (gulp) at the final hurdle. Hand Of god, Hard Endeavour, Bourbon Blues, and Harmonics are my remaining quartet, so my next stop is trainer form in this contest. Brian Meehan (Bourbon Blues) and the Gosdens (Harmonics) are the only two who have won this before (the last named also trains hot favourite Gavriel), and with Brian having less runners the die is cast – Bourbon Blues gets the vote. A winner last time out over a mile and a quarter at Doncaster when coming from last to first under a confident Ryan Moore ride, he has a 4lb plenty here, 1lb more than his next handicap mark, but Ryan seems happy enough to renew acquaintances and if he gets a clear run, he could repeat his last success.

Sean’s Suggestion

Inner City Blues 3.00pm Newmarket