Weekend Thoughts - And Putting The Racing World

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(with the exception of the YouTube podcast with Ron Robinson here https://www.youtube.com/watch?is=sSEnZlfkJ8LBKI7e&v=p2dINS7b5_Y&feature=youtu.be – it’s a busy one but if you love your racing, please give it a watch?)

I do hope you all enjoyed the long hot summer (that just passed me by), as getting our bronzed adonis bodies and bleached hair (?) may yet mess up the jumps season big time barring rain of biblical proportions. For many the start of the National Hunt season proper is the Chepstow meeting in early October but thanks to the dry spell there will be no chases and they now have an all hurdle card (which in turn begs the question, will there be enough horses to fill the races?) while the Warwick card on Wednesday was abandoned bright and early for unsafe ground, possibly due to the strange weather patterns. Hereford on the 13^{th of} October is also now hurdles only while Ludlow on the 9^th has also fallen by the wayside – where will it all end?

Racing had faced far worse issues in the past so I am not scaremongering, but this will have sent racing secretaries, owners, and trainers into meltdown, with the more astute setting out long-term plans and targets that suit their horses, leaving them forced to go back to the drawing board and start afresh.

Next on my news list we have the likeable Joseph O’Brien – though this time around I am not necessarily on his side. The Irish Cesarewich, was run last Sunday over two miles and a furlong, and with about £250,000 to the winner it came as no surprise to see a field of 30 go to post – no problem there.

What surprised me was that of those 30, no less than 13 were trained by Joseph, although he didn’t have the winner (that honour went to Chally Chute, a 16/1 shot from the Ross O’Sullivan yard. It is and will no doubt remain a pretty thorny subject, and I can see both sides – if you have the suitable horses why shouldn’t you run them all – but how on earth are punters supposed to make head nor tail of it and in case we forget (because sometimes I think racing as an industry don’t get it) it is of less interest from punters means less betting which means less money for the sport.

Team tactics rear their ugly head when a stable has two runners let alone that many, and jockey bookings can be down to owner loyalty as much as who has the better chance so where do we even start - sensibly, in my case, by leaving the race alone, but what do you think – should they be allowed multiple entries or should racing authorities consider limits?

On to Newmarket this week and I was planning to start with did we see any superstars – but Sun Goddess answered that for me. I genuinely though Libertango would have her measure back at six furlongs, but Aidan O’Brien’s filly was backed to odds-on by the off and duly obliged and in record time.

Now as short as 6/4 for the 1000 Guineas I have no interest whatsoever with her trainer pretty much telling us she already has the build of a three-year-old hence mopping up this season, so what odds she retires at the end of the season for some obscure reason before others mature to match or go beyond her? 

As for the colts, everyone seemed to know the Ballydoyle barren patch was well and truly over with Haffner also heaving backed, in his case for the Royal Lodge Stakes, and he also landed all the bets when winning by a length and a quarter at odds of 7/4 (opened on course at 11/4), though whether he is up to a classic I personally doubt at this stage.

Lastly for this week and under the headline of “what is going on in the world” and I read that Tripadvisor (booo hisss) have decided in their wisdom that they will no longer sell tickets anywhere in the World to greyhound racing, camel racing – and horse racing. Their argument is an update to its Animal Welfare policy, but it seems more likely that they been “got at” by the animal libbers with Petra unsurprisingly celebrating the move. For anyone who thinks I celebrate cruelty to animals you clearly don’t know me at all, but there are worse places the “do gooders” should be targeting.

Horses are cruelly treated by the general public on a daily basis without the veterinary care racehorses are lucky enough to receive, ditto cats and dogs, budgies and parrots restricted to the smallest cages, fish killed by inexperienced anglers, and don’t even get me started on grouse shooting and the like!

I have been saying for more years than I care to count that WHEN they have got rid of all the far worse animal cruelty in the World I won’t even blame them for coming after racing, but while they attack our sport largely if not only because of the extra publicity it garners, then I am sorry but they will not get me on their side.        

On to the racing…

Saturday

12.58pm Longchamp

It’s a stupidly busy weekend to the extent that I won’t even be looking at the Grade One’s in America, with Longchamp weekend plus our own high class contests. We start off in Paris (no, I am not going this year) where the predicted quicker ground will be something new to many of the home team, and that suggests to me we may be able to take a trophy or two back to blighty. Zaydann found his rivals in the Juddmonte International way too hot but was not disgraced in fifth with some class sorts in front of him, and back on home turf (literally) with lesser opposition, he looks the value call for the Graffard team who look all set for a brilliant weekend. 10/1 as I write is just that little bit too tempting for the son of Dubawi and with seven runners, I am hoping I can back him each way first and second at that price – and make a decent profit. Phineas is the glaringly obvious danger and is unbeaten this season, but he has been competing in lesser company and is too short in the market for my liking.

1.35pm Newmarket

The Sun Chariot Stakes is a Group One over the Rowley mile for fillies and mares and has seen superstars like Fallen Angel, Saffron Beach, and Laurens successful in recent years. Aidan O’Brien, Karl Burke, and the Gosdens have all won two each in the last ten years, but according to the betting 2026 will be dominated by Blue Bolt, available at 4/5 earlier in the week and now as short as 1/2. Andrew Balding’s four-year-old filly has an unblemished record this season winning five in a row, the last three all Group Ones with the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket (beating Irish 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes winner Precise by two lengths), confirming that form albeit by half a length in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville, and lastly the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown by two and a quarter lengths. On official ratings she is 9lb or more better than any of her rivals in a race where I won’t be betting – but then again, I cannot oppose her either.  

2.25pm Ascot

At one time the Cumberland Lodge Stakes was the next target for Constitution Hill but he is now being targeted at Italy instead and we now have a field of just six to deal with. Al Qareem has won the last three renewals of this and was actually declared at the early stage – but instead we see something I can’t member noticing before in all my years. Six runners yes, but just the three trainers, each represented by two runners just to make life that bit more complicated. Al Aasy was second here in 2024 and is an obvious one to look at, but winning the Grand Prix de Deauville last time out sees him shouldering a 5lb penalty here and that may see stablemate Tenability, five years his junior, finish ahead of him. A six length second in 2025 as a three-year-old, he looks a late maturing sort who can only get better with age, winning in Listed class at Goodwood in June (beating reliable yardstick Hamish) and again in the same grade at Windsor last time out. The Charlie Appleby pair of By The Book and Royal Power have claims with the last named seemingly overpriced on the odds I predicted. Last seen at Meydan when finishing a six length fourth in the Sheema Classic, I wonder if the bookmakers are ignoring that form? The winner was Calandagan, one of the top horses in the world today and on target for a repeat bid at the Japan Cup, with West Wind Blows in second and globetrotter Giavellotto in third, and I am far from convinced any of these, jolly included, would have got that close. Rested since (hopefully not for injury reasons), he arrives here fresh, and with only four starts since July 2024, there may even be improvement to come.  

3.00pm Ascot

The Bengough Stakes over six furlongs brings us a bit more speed than our earlier contests. We have seen winners at relatively short prices recently with just the one bigger than 6/1 in the last decade, and I think that may well continue. Division hasn’t won a race since October last year when the son of Kingman took a Listed race at York last October, but he has run some outstanding races in defeat. Second to Venetian Sun at Haydock in a Group Two in May, he has since finished a quarter length third to the same rival in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, a two and a quarter length fifth to Commanche Brave in the July Cup at Newmarket, and most recently a short neck second to Samangan in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville – all Group Ones. Dropping into a Group Three this afternoon if he fails to win this you have to wonder if it is ability or the will to win, but he could prove good enough to see off Elmonjed who is my idea of the each way alternative for anyone looking for a bet at bigger prices.   

4.00pm Longchamp

Our second race from Paris on Saturday has to be the Prix du Cadran, a stamina sapping two and a half mile contest that the UK or Ireland have won for the last six years in a row. If the betting is to be believed then we will be adding to that in 2026 with the first three in the betting headed (unsurprisingly) by Scandinavia for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. The son of Justify has been unbelievable this season winning all five starts with the last three being the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, the Goodwood Cup (by over eight lengths), and most recently the Irish Leger at the Curragh – all Group Ones. He is odds on and impossible to oppose but one little warning – he has had some tough races and I for one will be watching the race rather than risking my money at those prices.

Sunday

12.31pm Longchamp

In a race won by some high class fillies including Diamond Necklace last year, the Prix Marcel Boussac is a high class race but perhaps not always the easiest to solve with winners at up to 33/1 in recent years. Green Empress heads the early betting for Joseph O’Brien after finishing second to the remarkable Sun Goddess in the Moyglare Stud Stakes when running on strongly, and with another furlong to travel now I can see why she is the punter’s favourite. I hate suggesting too many horses at the head of the market but that form looks head and shoulders aboe anything the opposition can boast and that makes her impossible to oppose. Miss Miniver is held in high regard by the Roger Varian team despite finishing fourth in the Rockfel Stakes and is another who should be better suited by the mile this afternoon, and at 8/1, she would be my each way alternative with my lack of French racing knowledge making it difficult for me to assess the home team.

1.09pm Longchamp

The Group One’s just keep on coming at Longchamp this weekend (and my head is already spinning), with the seven furlong Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere next on my list, a race won by Aidan O’Brien for the last two seasons, but this year it looks all about his son Joseph. Monogram was the talk of Ireland after getting up late on from the clouds for the stable to win on debut and he was sent off at the head of the market for the National Stakes but the bookies had it all wrong. Stable companion Folsom Blues put him in his place by no less than six lengths at the Curragh, travelling sweetly throughout and easily put the race to bed when asked. His overall form gave him every chance before the race with a length and a quarter second to Sun Goddess over an inadequate six furlongs in August and if he keeps on improving then the 12/1 for next season’s 2000 Guineas will soon disappear.

1.47pm Longchamp

No-one with the faintest idea about sprinters would ever be daft enough to suggest either the UK or Ireland home any of the World’s best, yet somehow, they/we have won nine of the last 10 runnings of this, and I am not sure what that says about their French rivals? This looks one of the poorest renewals in living memory to me, with Katie Scott’s Naana’s Shadow heading the market at 4/1 or so – and she is basically a good handicapper who took a Group Three over course and distance last time out. To be fair that was much improved form beating Shiri by a length and three-quarters after making all, but the runner-up is basically Listed class, so where have all the good sprinters disappeared to? Cover Up has to give her 4lb but seems to have been overlooked and at 20/1 I am in each way – though to very small stakes. The Simon and Ed Crisford trained six-year-old was last seen finishing ninth in the Flying Five at the Curragh, the same position he filled in the Nunthorpe when hampered but look back and we see a Group Two win at the Curragh and one at Meydan in January, as well as respectable efforts at the highest level. He is no good thing, let’s make that clear, but he is each way value at that price in a race I would rather watch than bet in.

3.05pm Longchamp

It is Arc weekend and although I am loathed to call it the best race in the world when it is run so late in the season and usually on soft ground, even I can’t have a go at the standard of the field on offer here. I have started writing this without the benefit of knowing the draw (for some reason they are delaying that for dramatic effect at a guess), but we can still look at the form before drawing any final conclusions. If the current odds don’t change than last year’s winner Daryz will bid to become the shortest priced winner since Enable in 2018, and with a win in his prep race he is mightily difficult to oppose, and my French connections tell me he has been sparkling in his recent work. The four-year-old is very clearly the one to beat, have no doubt about that, but 7/4 in a field of 16 seems too short to me and I will go looking for each way value, daft as that may make me. Diamond Necklace intrigues getting weight as a three-year-old filly, but it would be a huge risk backing a filly bred to be a miler who has won over a mile and a quarter but is trying this trip for the first time. Oaks winner Thundering On bounced back to form with a comfortable win in the Blandford Stakes and I have added her to my shortlist, alongside Maltese Cross (needs to improve in my opinion but may do just that), Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini (25/1, really?), and the rapidly improving Varandir, the supposed Graffard second string. Although fourth to Maltese Cross in the Prix de Paris, he pulled too hard that day and was still beaten less than a length, and if he settles Sunday, I can see that form being reversed. He was sorely tempting and I could live to regret this, but the Japanese have an obsession with winning this race that stretches back decades, and one day they will succeed. It may be this year, it may not, but racing loves a fairytale and the legend that is jockey Yutaka Take will be on board Meisho Tabaru for his twelfth attempt here. The winner of the Takarazuka Kinen this year and last, that is one of Japan’s premier middle distance races (and worth close to £1.5 million to the winner), he comes here fresh having last raced in June, a new tactic the Japanese are trying of not giving their Arc runners a prep race. I am told he worked well this week under his big-race jockey ahead of his latest assignment, and at 40/1 I cannot let him just pass me buy – what a story that would be should he come home in front, though a small each way bet seems the sensible move.    

3.50pm Longchamp

With Diamond Necklace described by many as the best three-year-old filly out there, it came as some surprise (and was some performance) to down her colours by a couple of lengths when Aventure beat her comprehensively in the Prix Jean et Louis Romanet at Deauville in August. For me that is easily the best form on offer here, and even at 6/4, if the daughter of Sea The Stars can repeat that level, then she is better value than it appears at first glance. She stays further so a fast pace to pounce from will not be an issue and having scared off a large number of the better possible opponents by the look of things, she can win this before possibly heading off to the Breeders’ Cup. Precise has gone off the boil a bit since winning the Irish 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes earlier in the season, but if she is tried over an extra two furlongs for the first time here (there is plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of her pedigree), she could prove the most serious challenger.

4.25pm Longchamp

One last race from Paris to round things off (it’s been a busy one), and the Prix de la Foret over seven furlongs looks as competitive as ever – just what I needed before my head explodes. Eight runners for a Group One is still a bit disappointing but we would get paid out one to three each way if they all stand their ground. Samangan heads the betting for Francis-Henri Graffard after winning the Prix Maurice de Gheest by a short neck last time out and to be fair that make perfectly good sense, but the better value may lie with True Love. The winner of our 1000 Guineas back in May, she hasn’t been at her best since despite running well when second to Thesecretadversary (reopposes) in the Prix Jean Prat and fifth (to Samangan) in the Prix Maurice de Gheest, but the O’Brien yard have been in much better form recently and I am hoping they try different tactics here and ride her a from midfield, not from a long way adrift or from too near the early pace.

Sean’s suggestion:

Sunday win double

Folsom Blues 1.15pm Longchamp and Aventure 3.50pm Longchamp