Dubai World Cup Night - Can They Survive Without Me?

Thanks to the World we are currently living in I am writing my Dubai World Cup Night Preview all the way from – Mid-Sussex!

As most of you will be aware I am usually on the ground, reporting live from Meydan, form trackwork to the barrier draw, chatting to trainers, jockeys and fellow scribes – but thanks to the situation in the Middle-East our government advises against travel to the region – which means my insurances are null and void, and accidentally falling down some stairs could leave me with horrendous medical bills, while postponed flights and extra nights in hotels would have to come out of my own pocket – so sadly, here I am.

That takes nothing away from the 30^th anniversary with top class equine athletes still in action with the best jockeys available in the saddle, and we still have a feast to look forward to – just from a distance.

I don’t have the chance to talk you through the experience, the lights the food the atmosphere but we can talk about the races, so off we go.

12.20pm

Everybody knows that dirt racing is not my area of expertise so my race preview will by definition be short sweet, and very probably miles out! Commissioner King heads the betting here in the UK as I write and I have the utmost respect for trainer Bhupat Seemar, with the Commissioner gelding winning the Burj Nahar here in late February by four lengths after making all. Similar tactics could see him doubling up, though I note owners Wathan Racing have three entered here, with James Doyle picking David Of Athens over Generous Tipper and Hypnus, and at 12/1 he could run into a place.

12.55pm

An all-European field for the two-mile Dubai Gold Cup, and one that looks at the mercy of Al Riffa for Joseph O’Brien and Declan McDonagh. A class act who rarely if ever runs a bad race, the only negative I can find is the lack of a win over the trip, but he did win the Irish St Leger over a mile and three-quarters last September so we have high hopes. Officially rated 5lb or more better than all of his rivals if he stays he should win, with Fairy Glen an overpriced alternative having won over an inadequate mile and a furlong in her prep race, and with the possibility she could be even better over this distance.

1.30pm

Twelve lightly raced three-year-olds and a case of pick the bones out of that I’m afraid. Two arrive unbeaten and two others are yet to lose this year-  oh and it’s on dirt so wish me luck! Salloom won his only start by close to seven lengths here when beating Godolphin’s National History, and the son of Authentic could be anything, though he will need to be pretty decent to win this. Improvement is undoubtedly needed but he has course experience, the help of the top local trainer (Bhupat Seemar), and Tadgh O’Shea in the saddle, and that will do for me. The Japanese love of dirt racing is a pretty new thing (possibly sparked by Forever Young’s exploits), but it still takes a distant second place to turf, thoughsome feel the Pyrodancer could be the next big thing. He arrives unbeaten and is an obvious danger and if he wins, no-one at Meydan will be the slightest bit surprised.  

2.20pm

Lazzat is by far the likeliest winner here, officially rated 5lb or more superior to all of his rivals, and the winner of eight of his 15 starts, placing second in four others. His Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes win at Royal Ascot last year stands out, and a repeat of that could be all he needs. Khaadem deserves a big showing after travelling all the way to Hong King last December only for his saddle to slip in a race we can all ignore and I hope he picks up some prize money here for Charlie Hills, while Cover Up will appreciate a fast run six furlongs and is another to consider for the places.  

2.55pm

Six furlongs on the dirt, what can possibly go wrong? Locally trained runners have won three of the last four runnings so naively assuming the Americans will take this may be an error, though it is hard to knock the form of Bentornato who took the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Del Mar by over two lengths last November. If he can get out of the two stall smartly enough to get to the front I can see the son of Valiant Minister making all to come home alone, but I won’t be writing off 2024 winer Tuz for the home team even at the age of nine.

3.35pm

We are being told that Ombudsman has been aimed at this since last year and as he is the best horse in the race by 11lb or more I cannot oppose the Gosdens trained five-year-old however hard I try. The winner of six of his nine starts, two in Group One company, and second to Delacroix in the Coral Eclipse last July, he rounded off last year with a second to Calandagan in the Champion Stakes at Ascot, not exactly bad form with the winner going on to take the Japan Cup in course record time. I have looked for ways to get him beaten but have failed dismally with the exception of the lack of a recent race, and although odds-on, sometimes you just have to accept the price. Gaia Force and Quddwah can battle it out for second, but there really ought to be only one easy winner.

Calandagan - Europe's top hope

4.10pm

Ethical Diamond showed off the genius of Willie Mullins when circling the field for an easy success in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last November, but whether he can repeat that here is open to question. With his connections I am not stupid enough to write him off and he shood go well but Calandagan is heavily odds-on and understandably so. His last victory was in the Japan cup where he broke the course record, and now they seem to have unlocked his true ability after a run of frustrating second places, he looks all set for a money earning season. Giavellotto won’t be far away and has picked up £3,340,000 in win and place prize money so far, and can only add to that here (close to £90,000 for finishing LAST of the six), but a top three spot ought to be the best he can hope for.

4.45pm Meydan

I can 100% appreciate that racing is not run for the punters, not so much here and not at all in Dubai, but it gets a bit monotonous when you are talking about yet another odds-on favourite. That horse is, unsurprisingly the living legend Forever Young, the first Japanese dirt superstar that I know of and head and shoulders above his rivals according to the formbook and the ratings. Now a five-year-old, he has raced 13 times, winning 10 of them, four at Group One level, and with his last race a length success over the battling on Nysos in the Saudi Cup, earning another £7 million to add to his previous victories that include the Breeders’ Cup Classic, last year’s Saudi Cup, and the UAE Derby here in 2024. Last season he was beaten into third by Hit Show and Mixto, and with the first named back for second helpings I am not convinced by the prices. The jolly is a battler without a doubt and he never goes under without a fight, but he was beaten fair and square at odds-on last year and at the prices, I’d rather back Hit Show each way at 14/1 or so – or not have a bet at all.