Racing Chat and a 4/1 NAP!

ALL THOUGHTS ARE MY OWN

(except for the Podcast link here  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afHh0pYDvCM with the one, the only, Ron Robinson)!

As you will remember I should be living the high life in Dubai ahead of the World Cup on Saturday but thanks to the current scenario, here I am in sunny Sussex.

Life goes on and we start with what I saw as pretty strange news this week with Stuart Isaacs KC deciding that the gambling debts of (wait for it) £840,000 racked up by owner Alan Spence were enforceable despite them being placed with an illegal bookmaker. Firstly, that should be sending alarm bells ringing loudly with racing’s great and good – when punters can’t get on with a licenced bookmaker they WILL find alternatives (of which I suspect there are far more than we think), robbing the treasury of taxes and more importantly for me at least, taking out of the levy that funds the sport.  I will be watching (but not holding my breath) to see what follow up there is from both the legal system and the Gambling Commission – so far the silence is deafening, yet we have an acknowledged illegal bookmaker, raking in profits, not holding a licence, avoiding tax and levy – and currently laughing all the way to the bank. With his name and his dastardly deeds out in the public domain there is no excuse whatsoever for him not to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law and made an example of – hopefully the first of many if we want to get rid of them, and try to get our sport back to where it needs to be.

Good news next, and how impressive was Constitution Hill on his second start on the Flat since being retired from hurdling? I suspect those who backed him down to 1/7 at the off may be keeping their betting slips as mementos, but what he has done has brought some excitement back to the sport and seen him appear outside of the sports pages. The crowd at Kempton was way bigger than normal (close to 1500) for a Thursday evening thanks to his appearance and although it seems strange to describe a nine-year-old as a breath of fresh air, he has brough new faces to the track. His next stop is unknown (those clamouring for the Arc need to be reminded he can’t run as a gelding), with the John Porter at Newbury a possibility, and we will soon find out if he is equally happy back on the turf – or not.    

Bad news now with the government deciding to leave the level of the levy as it was – and to not include bets placed on racing abroad. How we are expected to thrive and grow when our “take out” sits far lower than other racing jurisdictions is laughable, leaving our prize money as the poor relations, and in a World where owning horses abroad is becoming ever more tempting, this is not the news we wanted to hear. With affordability checks once more on the horizon with rumours the Gambling Commission are about to enforce them even though different credit agencies are giving out conflicting information, this could be the imperfect storm we all dreaded, and The Betting and Gaming Council and Horseracing Bettors Forum have both come out in support of Brant Dunshea (British Horseracing Authority), who has called for a government U-turn. The previous government had made it quite clear in my eyes that they intended to help racing via an increased levy before they were voted out, yet common sense has not prevailed with no give and take. A better levy would at least part-balance the losses that WILL come once punters walk away (or into the hands of illegal bookmakers), and quite frankly racing cannot afford it and something has to give. Less punters means less levy means less prize money means less owners means less horses means stables cutting staff or giving up – and how they cannot see that as by far the likeliest outcome is beyond me?   

On to the new Flat season next and how good is Albert Einstein – we will soon find out as he is down to run in the Gladness Stakes at The Curragh on Saturday. Unbeaten after two starts at Naas and The Curragh he is being talked up as the next big thing with superlatives such as “unbelievably exciting” and “I don’t think we have ever had a horse as quick” bandied about at the Aidan O’Brien media day, but if the last statement is true, will he see out the mile of the 2000 Guineas in May? I cannot fail to be a fan of Aidan, who is always happy to talk to the media and an all-round nice bloke (and workaholic), but it does feel as if he can be the mouthpiece for Coolmore marketing with every season seemingly seeing the best horse he has ever trained, and like the little boy who cried wolf, how do you know when to take notice – or not?   

Finally for the chit-chat, and congratulations to Dan Skelton who has broken the £4,000,000 prize money mark for the season and sits top of the trainers’ championship by close to £2 million (from Nicky Henderson), which looks uncatchable (he currently trades at 1/6 with William Hill). We do of course have Aintree to come, and with the winner of the Grand National picking up £500,000 there is still plenty to play for, but it does look all over bar the shouting and we should have a new Champion trainer very shortly.   

On to the racing…

Dan Skelton - Champion Trainer In Waiting

Saturday racing

1.20pm Doncaster

Not a race to bet in seriously with 15 unraced two-year-olds set to go to post for the first turf juvenile race of the season – but worth covering for the fun of it! Nevernotrememberu would be the most popular winner for trainer Kathy Turner with the race now named after her father Bill, who won this numerous times, but the 40/1 suggests he is up against it, though you never know in this game! Blixen Force heads the early betting and has been well supported, and the son of Persian Force can go well, but we have only seen three winning favourites in the last 10 years and it may not be quite that simple.  Richard Hannon has won two of the last four runnings and he has two in here, with A Bear Affair seemingly the stable number one with Sean Levey in the saddle. A son of Kodi Bear who cost 68,000gns as a yearling, he is certainly bred to be speedy, and at 6/1 he could be the sensible each way call.

1.50pm Doncaster

A tough race to second guess with the majority having their first start for some time, but on official ratings David O’Meara’s My Mate Alfie has as good a chance as any on his first start for the yard after leaving Ger Lyons in Ireland. He does have five lengths to find with Art Power on their meeting at The Curragh last September but is 5lb better off this afternoon, and more importantly he is usually there or thereabouts first time out, whereas his older rival has finished eighth, twelfth, and fourth on his debut in the last three years. Both could get involved, but Spycatcher still gets the vote having won on his return in four of the last five years, signing off last season with a comfortable course and distance win in the Wentworth Stakes on heavy ground. All going seems to come alike to the eight-year-old, though the fact that the word soft appears in the going description is a bonus and if he is fit enough, I feel he is good enough, though a higher draw would have been ideal.   

2.20pm Meydan

Lazzat is by far the likeliest winner here, officially rated 5lb or more superior to all of his rivals, and the winner of eight of his 15 starts, placing second in four others. His Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes win at Royal Ascot last year stands out, and a repeat of that could be all he needs. Khaadem deserves a big showing after travelling all the way to Hong Kong last December only for his saddle to slip in a race we can all ignore and I hope he picks up some prize money here for Charlie Hills, while Cover Up will appreciate a fast run six furlongs and is another to consider for the places.   

2.57pm Doncaster

A really disappointing turnout of just the five runners for the Listed Doncaster Mile Stakes, but if we can find the winner, who cares? Treble Tee is worth a second look as the only course and distance winner in the field and as a four-year-old he may have more to offer this season, but he looks to have it all to do against more seasoned rivals. Docklands heads the betting but I note that he has finished second on his seasonal return for each of the last four seasons, so I will take a chance on Qirat for Ralph Beckett. His recent form figures may not jump off the page, but he has been mixing it at a far higher level with a fourth to Voyage Bubble in the Group One Hong Kong Mile in December his latest effort. He did pull off a 150/1 shock when winning the Queen Ann Stakes at Royal Ascot last June, and hasn’t been disgraced at the highest level since, and having finished third, first and second on his returns each year, he looks worthy of a punt here.

3.13pm Kempton

There may be 12 runners for the Snowdrop Stakes but one glance at official ratings soon tells us that barring an upset, it looks a two-horse race. Both cost big bucks, with Cathedral changing hands for 800,000 Euros at the breeze-ups as a two-year-old, and she was last seen finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mares over 11 furlongs at Del Mar last November, but she has only won a single race (at Lingfield) on debut. Better things are expected as a four-year-old, but she will need to be 99% race fit to get the better of Survie. She changed hands for 1,900,000Gns last December, and paid a very small percentage of that back almost immediately when winning at Lingfield over a mile and a quarter. Her only start since was a third at Riyadh on Valentine’s Day when she ran on well over the 10 furlongs, leaving the mile as the biggest concern for both of them, and for that reason alone, I will look elsewhere and have come up with Glittering Surfas an each way suggestion to small stakes. Only a lightly raced four year old, this is her biggest task yet by some margin, but she has a two out of two record over course and distance, and may, only may, have more to offer after just the four career starts.     

3.35pm Meydan

We are being told that Ombudsman has been aimed at this since last year and as he is the best horse in the race by 11lb or more I cannot oppose the Gosdens trained five-year-old however hard I try. The winner of six of his nine starts, two in Group One company, and second to Delacroix in the Coral Eclipse last July, he rounded off last year with a second to Calandagan in the Champion Stakes at Ascot, not exactly bad form with the winner going on to take the Japan Cup in course record time. I have looked for ways to get him beaten but have failed dismally with the exception of the lack of a recent race, and although odds-on, sometimes you just have to accept the price. Gaia Force and Quddwah can battle it out for second, but there really ought to be only one easy winner.

4.10pm Meydan

Ethical Diamond showed off the genius of Willie Mullins when circling the field for an easy success in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last November, but whether he can repeat that here is open to question. With his connections I am not stupid enough to write him off and he should go well but Calandagan is heavily odds-on and understandably so. His last victory was in the Japan cup where he broke the course record, and now they seem to have unlocked his true ability after a run of frustrating second places, he looks all set for a money making season. Giavellotto won’t be far away and has picked up £3,340,000 in win and place prize money so far and can only add to that here (close to £90,000 for finishing LAST of the six), but a top three spot ought to be the best he can hope for.

Sean’s Suggestion

Qirat 2.57pm Doncaster